Screen Actors Guild 2018 Film Awards Betting Odds
–The 2018 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards will take place on Sunday, January 21, 2018
–2018 will be the 24rd Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards Awards
–The award winners in both film and TV are selected by a vote of the full membership of The Screen Actors Guild
It’s just 48 hours or so until Christmas Day as I write this and things are slow in the oddsmaking world–particularly for someone such as myself that specializes in ‘non-sport’ events. Nothing really happens between now and January 2, 2018 anywhere but the world of sports and much of that is more ‘sizzle than steak’. The Independence Bowl on December 27 between Florida State and Southern Miss is a great example. To say that the Seminoles had a down year is an understatement–they finished 6-6 but only achieved bowl eligibility by the skin of their teeth. One of their wins came against FCS basket case Delaware State (2-9 this season). Delaware State opened the season by losing their first 6 games and avoided a winless year by virtue of a 3 point win over 3-7 South Carolina State and another 3 point win over 1-10 Morgan State.
Somehow the Seminoles were able to count that win toward eligibility. The rule is that 90% of a FCS team’s players must be on scholarship to count as a ‘win’ for the purpose of a FBS team becoming eligible. The ‘noles accepted their bowl bid but some busybody on Reddit did the math and suggested that only 87% of the Delaware State team was on scholarship which would have meant Florida State didn’t qualify for even the most meager of bowl offerings. Some quick thinking by FSU honchos saved the day:
Florida State has received confirmation from Delaware State that the 90 percent requirement is satisfied for the 2017 season, allowing the victory to be used in determining bowl eligibility,” the school said in the statement. “Media reports suggesting otherwise failed to account for a long-standing NCAA rules interpretation that permits institutions to use academic scholarships and other forms of non-athletics institutional aid received by student-athletes in the computation of this requirement. These media reports represent incomplete information, as they only reflect athletics scholarships received.
In other words, the NCAA doesn’t really enforce this rule. The academic scholarships is one thing but I’m wondering what “other forms of non-athletics institutional aid received by student-athletes” means? Pell Grants? Picking up condoms from the campus health center? Being allowed to use the weight room and library? I have no issue with Florida State going to a bowl but I did find the semantic gymnastics they used to get there downright amusing. As for Delaware State they were ranked the 57th most dangerous college in America awhile back.
WHAT DOES FSU FOOTBALL HAVE TO DO WITH THE SAG FILM AWARDS?
So where was I? Oh yeah–there’s not much going on being Christmastime and all so I’m using the opportunity to get a jump on the countless awards shows that will come fast and furious after the first of the year. I started with the Critics’ Choice Awards setting odds for the Film Awards, TV Awards and even some TV Award prop bets. I’ll be getting to the Film Award Props soon.
In this post we’ll look at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards betting odds. SAG gives out awards for both TV and film and in theory should be a very important predictor for the Academy Awards, at least in the acting categories. SAG has a total of 121,544 members and they all get to vote for these awards meaning the lowliest thespian in Omaha, Nebraska’s vote counts the same as Brad Pitt’s. The Oscar nominations are chosen by the actors branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This is a much smaller group than SAG. ‘The Academy’ is tight lipped about it’s membership roster but with approximately 6000 members you have to think that less than half (if not significantly less) are actors. In other words, 2000 voters or less compared to the 121,544 in SAG. The full academy votes on the actual Oscar winner but that doesn’t matter if you’re not one of the five nominees.
As we head into the Academy Award season I’m going to be tracking the ‘precursor’ awards and trying to figure out what, if anything, they can tell us. It’s also important to keep in mind what I call ‘frontrunner fatigue’. The presumptive ‘top film’ of the year in January sometimes gets so much ‘buzz’ that a backlash begins that can keep it from winning anything significant at the Oscars. It happened last year with ‘La La Land‘. This has already happened to some degree with ‘Dunkirk’–heading into the Fall it was clearly the frontrunner but now isn’t even guaranteed to get a nomination. It probably will since there are 7 films that look to be the ‘cream of the crop’ but it’s not a lock.
Anyway, here’s the odds on the SAG Film Awards. Stay tuned for the SAG TV Award odds.
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) FILM AWARDS BETTING ODDS
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTRESS’
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): -250
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird): +450
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya): +450
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water): +700
Judi Dench(Victor and Abdul): +1500
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTOR’
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour): -350
James Franco (The Disaster Artist): +500
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name): +500
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esg.): +1250
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out): +1250
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD FOR ‘BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS’
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird): -350
Allison Janney (I, Tonya): +450
Hong Chau (Downsizing): +600
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick): +1200
Mary J. Blige(Mudbound): +1200
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD FOR ‘BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR’
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project): -255
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): +400
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water): +700
Steve Carell: (Battle of the Sexes): +700
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): +1100
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD FOR ‘BEST ENSEMBLE CAST’
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: -155
Get Out: +350
Lady Bird: +350
Mudbound: +700
The Big Sick: +1200
2018 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD FOR ‘BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE’
Dunkirk: -400
Baby Driver: +600
Wonder Woman: +600
Logan: +1100
War For The Planet Of The Apes: +1100