Political Betting–Early Odds For Third Presidential Debate

The Presidential election cycle that has at times seemed as if it would never end is finally showing signs of drawing to a close. The third and final debate between Republican Candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton is scheduled for Wednesday, October 19 from a town that I know very well–Las Vegas, Nevada on the campus of UNLV. Seriously, if you’re *ever* in Las Vegas and can’t find anything better to do than to watch a couple of political blowhards yammer back and forth you’ve got problems.

Anyway, the polling data at RealClearPolitics shows that we’re essentially where we’ve been all along–Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by a few percentage points in a battle between two of the most loathsome human beings on the planet. I’m going to preface the first set of odds for Debate #3 with the same thing I’ve said all along–the majority of the American people have thankfully ‘tapped out’ on this election a long time ago. All that’s left now are the ‘true believers’ and at this point anyone who is planning to vote for either candidate will do so regardless of what happens between now and the election. If something good can come out of this election it’s revealing to some of the more clueless among the US citizenry that a) politics is completely about power, not principle and b) it has no relevance in their lives and as the world and particularly the world economy becomes even more decentralized it’ll have even less. Both candidates have been revealed as crooked, power mad, borderline psychopathic megalomaniacs. We know that they’ll lie, cheat and steal to get ahead even as they chortle on about integrity. Mrs. Clinton has one thing that Trump doesn’t–a huge body count from overseeing President Obama’s endless wars and drone murders. Then again, Trump may or may not have been involved in actual sexual assault while all that Hillary has done is help run interference against women accusing her husband of the same thing.

As I’ve said before, I’m not a political partisan. The major parties are flip sides of the same coin, the ‘Coke’ and ‘Pepsi’ of statist murder, oppression and control. I’m not going to vote and will do something much more important on election night like go out for sushi. I’m not trying to ‘discredit’ either candidate or suggest that one is better than the other. I’m trying to discredit the entire process. The salient point here, however, is that even after what we know about both of these vermin there are actually people who are willing to vote for them. Some suggest they’re just doing it to keep ‘the other candidate’ from getting elected. Whatever. Seriously though, what could either of them possibly do to convince people who are actually going to vote for them not to do so, let alone vote for their opponent. Honestly, I have no clue. That’s not going to keep both sides from trying to come up with some sort of ‘gotcha’ revelation to discredit their opponent. They really don’t have any other strategy at this point since they agree on most substantive matters. It’s all about power and they’ll stoop to any level to obtain it.

Translation–the third debate should be the most insane one yet with both candidates ‘swinging for the fences’ with no pretense of civility, decency or good taste. And we’ll bring you the betting odds to keep it entertaining. This first set of odds will involve many of the same propositions and concepts as the second debate with updated numbers. In the next 24-48 hours we’ll have some prop bet odds specific to the third debate including Over/Under props on viewership numbers. As we’ve done for the previous two debates we’ll start with a look at the odds to win the election and how they’ve changed:

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Next President of the United States 10/17/16:

Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +7500

That’s not a typo–the Presidential Election betting odds are essentially unmoved from one week ago. This is a universal phenomenon and after checking the odds at 35 or so sportsbooks in Europe and elsewhere they’ve shown little movement either. Hillary Clinton is favored between -600 and -700 and just about all of them. There’s a few outliers here and there–you can find Hill as low as -550 and as high as -800. The low prices are at shops with a very low ‘split’ and this in no way means that there’s a significant amount of ‘Trump money’ entering the marketplace. Just a matter of sportsbooks giving up vig for promotional purposes, to drive volume or what have you. You can also find her as high as -800 but that’s just the same thing we talked about above in the other direction with a shop giving themselves more of a ‘theoretical edge’.

The takeback on Trump varies depending on the bookmaking policies of each ‘out’ (eg: how much vig they charge) but it’s mostly +450 and +550. You’ll find him at as low as +350 or as high as +540 for the same reasons outlined above. The bottom line is that there hasn’t been any significant betting movement anywhere in the world over the past week. This underscores the ossification of the candidate’s supporters which clearly hasn’t been lost on the betting marketplace.

Here’s the last three updates we reported–one week ago, immediately after the second debate and a day or two before the second debate.

Next President of the United States 10/10/16:

Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +7500

The previous two odds updates:

Next President of the United States:

Hillary Clinton:-400
Donald Trump: +350
Other: +3300

And the odds before the second debate:

Next President of the United States BEFORE DEBATE #2:

Hillary Clinton:-333
Donald Trump: +240
Other: +3300

As we did after the first two debates, we’ll have some ‘post debate prop bets’ up late this week.

THIRD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE SPECIALS


Will Donald Trump release his tax returns at or before the third debate?:

Yes: +500
No: -900

Will the candidates shake hands before the third debate?:

Yes: -650
No: +450

Which candidate will have more speaking time in the third debate?:

Clinton: +300
Trump: -500

Will the moderator say ‘lock her up’ during the third debate?:

Yes: +750
No: -900

Will the moderator say ‘retirement age’ during the third debate?:

Yes: +350
No: -500

Will the moderator say ‘Merrick Garland’ during the third debate?:

Yes: +400
No: -650

Will the moderator say ‘Len Jessup’ during the third debate? (Len Jessup is President of debate host UNLV):

Yes: +650
No: -800

Will the moderator say ‘Jerry Tarkanian’ or ‘Coach Tarkanian’ during the third debate? (Jerry Tarkanian is the late Hall of Fame basketball coach best known for his time at UNLV):

Yes: +1000
No: -1500

Will Independent Presidential candidate Evan McMullan be mentioned by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +500
No: -750

Will the ‘Mormons’, ‘Mormon Church’, ‘LDS Church’, ‘Latter-Day Saints’ or ‘Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints’ be mentioned during the third debate?:

Yes: +500
No: -750

Will ‘Paul Ryan’ be mentioned during the third debate?:

Yes: +125
No: -150

Will Nevada’s casino industry or legalized gambling be mentioned or discussed during the third debate?:

Yes: +175
No: -250

Will ‘Wikilinks’ or ‘Julian Assange’ be mentioned by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +225
No: -300

Will ‘John Podesta’ be mentioned by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +150
No: -175

Will ‘Steve Wynn’ be mentioned by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +275
No: -350

Will Donald Trump mention ‘Trump Tower Las Vegas’ or ‘Trump International Hotel’ by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +325
No: -450

Will any Las Vegas hotel or casino be mentioned by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +225
No: -350

Will ‘Sheldon Adelson’ be mentioned by name during the third debate?:

Yes: +275
No: -350

Will Donald Trump’s inability to get a Nevada Gaming License be mentioned or discussed during the third debate?:

Yes: +325
No: -450

Will moderator Chris Wallace pronounce ‘Nevada’ correctly (Ne-VAH-da) or incorrectly (Ne-VOD-da or other)?:

Correctly: -250
Incorrectly: +175

Will the daytime high temperature at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas on October 19 be:

Over 80 degrees F: -350
Under 80 degrees F: +225

Will the daytime high temperature at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas on October 19 be:

Over 85 degrees F: -175
Under 85 degrees F: +125

Will the daytime high temperature at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas on October 19 be:

Over 90 degrees F: +300
Under 90 degrees F: -450

Will Donald Trump say ‘the Cyber’ during the debate?:

Yes: +325
No: -450

Will Donald Trump say ‘Bill Clinton’ during the debate?:

Yes: -400
No: +325

Will Donald Trump say ‘build the wall’ or ‘build a wall’ during the debate?:

Yes: -250
No: +195

Will Donald Trump say ‘crooked Hillary’ during the debate?:

Yes: +175
No: -250

Will either candidate say ‘peace among worlds’ during the debate?:

Yes: +2250
No: -3500

Will either candidate say ‘free Rick Sanchez’ or ‘free Rick’ during the debate?:

Yes: +2500
No: -4500

Which Network will have the most recorded viewers?:

NBC: -250
ABC: +175
CBS: +350
Fox: +750

RULES: Debate must take place in Las Vegas, Nevada on or before October 20, 2016. Any other rescheduling, cancellation or venue change voids all bets. All mentions must be exact and verbatim unless specified otherwise. Mention can be within a longer phrase or sentence but must be said without any additional words. For example, if a candidate says ‘Who is Evan McMullan and why should I care’? it will count as a valid mention of ‘Evan McMullan’. If a candidate says ‘Who is Evan Freakin’ McMullan and why should I care?’ it would not count as a valid mention. Phrases or topics must be said by Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or moderator Chris Wallace during the actual debate unless specified otherwise to count as a valid mention. ‘Actual debate’ does not include individual network analysis or pre/post debate coverage.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.