Looking Back at the Vegas Golden Knights’ Phenomenal Debut Season
–The Vegas Golden Knights have obliterated all records for NHL expansion teams.
–With three games remaining the Golden Knights have clinched the Pacific Division Title.
–The Golden Knights play their home games in the brand new T-Mobile Arena.
The Vegas Golden Knights might just be the most amazing story in sports this year. The began play in Fall 2017 as the NHL’s 31st teams and there were plenty of questions about how they would do. Off the ice, they had to attract a fanbase from the unique Las Vegas demographic in a market where professional sports have never fared well. On the ice, they had to cobble together a team to compete in the NHL’s tough Western Conference. No one really expected much from the team on the ice due to the less than stellar record of NHL expansion teams. The nadir of this group was the 1974-1975 Washington Capitals who went 8-67-5. The closest that any expansion team has come to a winning record was the 1967-68 Philadelphia Flyers who finished 31-32-11.
The thinking heading into the season was that the upstart Vegas team would be significantly better than the 1974-75 Capitals. How much better was the question but the expectation of most is that they would be somewhere in the middle between the two extremes. Just before the expansion draft I did a list of Vegas Golden Knights prop bets and set their Over/Under win total at 24.5. After the draft, I elevated my expectations somewhat based on what I thought was a very impressive assortment of talent the team acquired. At that time, I bumped their O/U win total to 30.5.
To say that they exceeded those expectations is a massive understatement. In fact, the Golden Knights have basically obliterated every record for success by an expansion team in *any* sport. With two games remaining they’ve got 109 points and have already clinched the Pacific Division title. They’re still mathematically in the mix for the Western Conference championship though they’d have to catch a number of breaks for that to happen. They have the same number of wins (51) as the Nashville Predators who currently have the most points of any team in the league.
I thought it would be interesting to review the Golden Knights prop bets to see how much you could have won if you had been appropriately ‘bullish’ on their debut season performance. Here are the rules–in each proposition wager we’ll assume that you bet $100 on the outcome most favorable to the Golden Knights. For example, in the previously mentioned O/U win total you would have bet the ‘Over’.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 2017-2018 NHL SEASON PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS RECAP
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 2017-2018 WIN TOTAL?
Over 24.5 wins: +110
Under 24.5 wins: -130
I revised this following the draft:
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 2017-2018 WIN TOTAL?
Over 30.5 wins: +110
Under 30.5 wins: -130
RESULT–WIN +110: The Golden Knights simply obliterated both numbers. They have 51 wins at the time of this writing but here’s the *really* crazy thing–the Golden Knights went ‘Over’ this total before the end of 2017! Vegas won their 25th game on December 28, 2017. This one was never in doubt. To make their performance all the more impressive–the Golden Knights have won 25 more games *since* then.
WHEN WILL THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS WIN THEIR FIRST REGULAR SEASON GAME?
Before or on October 25, 2017: -150
After October 25, 2017: +130
RESULT–WIN +100: The Golden Knights didn’t wait around to cash this ticket–they took a 2-1 win at Dallas on opening night and got their first home win three days later as they prevailed 5-2 over Arizona at the T-Mobile Arena.
WHERE WILL THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS WIN THEIR FIRST REGULAR SEASON GAME?
Home: -300
Away: +250
RESULT–WIN +250: Vegas came out of the gate strong, winning their debut at Dallas. They would go on to start the season 8-1-0.
NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS TO MAKE THE 2017-2018 NHL ALL STAR GAME?
Over 1.5: +150
Under 1.5: -180
RESULT WIN–+150: 2 players from the Vegas team were named All Stars: Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury and forward James Neal.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TEMPERATURE AT MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THE TIME OF OPENING FACEOFF PUCK DROP FOR THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS FIRST REGULAR SEASON HOME GAME?
Over 74.5 degrees F: -130
Under 74.5 degrees F: +110
NO RESULT: I’m not going to count this one in our results rundown simply because there’s not a ‘Golden Knights favorable’ position to take. FWIW, it was 73 degrees at the time of the opening faceoff for the first NHL regular season game in the 702.
WILL THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS MAKE THE 2017-2018 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS?
Yes: +700
No: -1400
RESULT–YES +700: What was something of an ‘impossible dream’ before the season quickly became all but a foregone conclusion. In a down year for the Pacific Division the Golden Knights looked like a lock for this one before the start of 2018.
WILL THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS FINISH 2017-2018 WITH THE BEST RECORD IN THE PACIFIC DIVISION?
Yes: +3750
No: -7500
RESULT–WIN +3750: Amazing. Not only has Vegas clinched the Pacific Division title they’ve got an 11 point lead over second place San Jose. They’re also one of only 7 teams in the NHL with more than 100 points.
2017-2018 AVERAGE ATTENDANCE AT VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS HOME GAMES?
Over 16,500: +130
Under 16,500: -150
2017-2018 AVERAGE ATTENDANCE AT VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS HOME GAMES?
Over 15,500: -140
Under 15,500: +120
RESULT–WIN +130
RESULT–WIN +100
So much for Las Vegas’ potential as a ‘hockey town’. The official capacity for hockey listed on the T-Mobile Arena website is 17,500. The Golden Knights averaged 18,042 per game sailing over both of the attendance totals.
2017-2018 AVERAGE PERCENTAGE OF CAPACITY AT VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS HOME GAMES?
Over 96.5%: +130
Under 96.5%: -150
WILL THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS SELL OUT THEIR FIRST REGULAR SEASON HOME GAME AT T-MOBILE ARENA?
Yes: -180
No: +160
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
UNLV men’s basketball average attendance +4000 per game: +130
Vegas Golden Knights average attendance: -150
RESULT–WIN +130
RESULT–WIN +100
RESULT–WIN +100
The Golden Knights percentage of capacity to date is 103.9% which is fourth in the NHL behind Chicago, Minnesota, Washington. Opening night was a sellout. At one point, UNLV basketball was the ‘biggest game in town’ but the Runnin’ Rebels program has fallen on hard times. This one wasn’t even close.
So let’s tally up the results. We had 11 propositions where there was a clear position favorable to the Golden Knights. They won them all for a perfect 11-0 record producing a whopping 56.20 units of profit. $100 on each of these positions would have turned a profit of $5620. They might not be done yet. Finishing with the best record in the Western Conference would be worth +7500. Winning the Western Conference playoffs and advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals would be worth another +7500. And should Vegas do the unimaginable and win the Stanley Cup they’d cash a +15000 ticket putting a cool $1.5 million in their $100 backers’ pockets. This would also be a serious ‘worst case scenario’ for Las Vegas sports books. While no one saw the massive success of the Golden Knights coming before the season there were quite a few ‘Knights to win the Stanley Cup’ tickets sold as a lark or a collectible.