Game of Thrones Odds – Who Will Die First in Season 7?

With a huge cast and complex storylines—not to mention plenty of grisly deaths–’Game of Thrones’ is a natural for betting. The obvious questions are ‘who’s next to die’ and ‘how will they die’ but the show has an almost limitless array of narrative components well suited to setting odds and taking sports betting prop bets.


We asked 10,000 U.S. Game of Thrones fans on Facebook, Who would be the first character to die in Season 7?

The results may surprise you.




Character Votes Percentage Odds
Theon Greyjoy 1422 14.22 +2500
Melisandre 802 8.08 +850
Davos Seaworth 723 7.23 +1050
Jorah Mormont 711 7.11 +650
Yara Greyjoy 637 6.37 +1100
Gregor Clegane 625 6.25 +1250
Robin Arryn 619 6.19 +4000
Jamie Lannister 573 5.73 +550
Sansa Stark 537 5.37 +5000
Brienne of Tarth 446 4.46 +7500
Arya Stark 436 4.36 +950
Varys 422 4.22 +1050
Bronn 342 3.42 +2500
Tormund Giantsbane 313 3.13 +1250
Petyr Baelish 311 3.11 +2500
Tyrion Lannister 257 2.57 +7500
Sandor Clegane 243 2.43 +2100
Cersei Lannister 232 2.32 +575
Bran Stark 132 1.32 +9000
Daenerys Targaryen 112 1.12 +9000
Jon Snow 105 1.05 +9000


Method of First On-Screen Death in Season 7?
White Walker: +150
Sword/Axe (Not Beheading): +200
Arrow/Crossbow Bolt: +250
Beheading: +350
Hanging: +350
Burnt by Fire: +450
Poison: +525
Drowned: +575
Any Magic: +750
Sacrificed (Lord of Light): +950
Direwolf: +1500
Greyscale: +1500
Hired Assassin: +1750
Thrown through the Moon Door: +2500
Trial by Combat: +3500
Head Crushed: +7500
Buried in Books of the Citadel: +7500Arya Stark’s First Kill in Season 7?
Thoros of Myr: +210
Beric Dondarrion: +300
Melisandre: +350
Ilyn Payne: +450
Cersei Lannister: +750
Gregor The Mountain Clegane: +1500
Sandor The Hound Clegane: +2100

Religion of the Final Ruler of the 7 Kingdoms?
Valyrian: +250
The Faith of the Seven: +250
Lord of Light: +350
Old Gods of the Forest: +450
The Many Faced God of Death: +950
Great Stallion: +2750
The Drowned God: +2750

Game of Thrones Season 7 Episode 1 US viewership (per Nielsen Ratings)?
Over 8 million: -150
Under 8 million: +120

Will Game of Thrones Episode 1 draw more US viewers than the Season 6 Finale (8.9 million)?
Yes: -130
No: +100

It’s not the first TV series to attract betting attention. The notion of betting on a TV show plotline begin several decades ago and focused not on who would be killed, but who pulled the trigger. In the summer of 1980 the dominant question among pop culture aficionados was ‘Who shot J.R. Ewing?’ on the hit TV series ‘Dallas’. The villainous Texas oilman played by Larry Hagman ‘took a bullet’ from an unknown assailant in the final episode of the season leaving both his condition—and the identity of the shooter—up in the air until the start of the following season.

Out in Las Vegas at the nondescript but highly influential Castaways sportsbook a bookmaking legend named Sonny Reizner decided to hang some odds on the ‘Dallas’ cliffhanger. He posted odds on every character that would have a reason to shoot J.R. (which was most of them). He also set numbers on ‘real people’ including then-Dallas Cowboys’ head coach Tom Landry as +50000 (500 to 1) long shot and even J.R. himself (+1500 or 15 to 1).

Setting odds on unusual betting propositions was a Reizner trademark. He was always putting up lines on a wide range of topics from elections to where comet Kohoutek would land. The ‘Who Shot J.R’ prop created an international media frenzy. It also caught the attention of Nevada’s Gaming Control Board who put an end to the fun and ordered that the line taken down and all bets refunded. After that, gambling regulations were amended to specified that licensed sportsbooks in the ‘Silver State’ could only take action on sporting events.

With the advent of the Internet and online betting sites, Reizner’s brainchild was reborn. ‘Novelty props’ have always been popular in the legal bookmaking shops of Great Britain and the digital revolution brought this type of wager to a worldwide audience. The first popular TV show for betting was ‘The Sopranos’ which lent itself to the same ‘next to be killed’ dynamic but without the numerous cast members and highly involved motivations for murder offered by ‘Game of Thrones’.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.