Cubs Look to Split Series with Nationals

Who: Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals

When: Thursday June 29th, 2017 4:05PM EST

Where: Nationals Park—Washington, DC

In the last week or so, the Cubs have gone from leading their division to sitting in second place and falling. Having won just 3 of their last 8, the Cubs are reeling and in search of some consistency. Making the search for consistency that much more difficult is the fact that, on Wednesday night, the Cubs’ catcher Kris Bryant left the game with an ankle sprain; his return is still unknown.

On the other end of the performance spectrum is the Washington Nationals, who have won 5 of their last 8. The Nats now hold a more than 9 game lead in the NL East and are solidifying themselves as the team to beat in the division. The bats have been on fire, the pitching has been solid, and the Nationals are looking like the team everyone expected them to look like before the season kicked off.

Game Overview and Analysis

On Thursday, the Nationals will try and take a 3rd victory from this 4-game series while the Cubs will look to prevent themselves from falling further behind in the NL Central race. Unfortunately for Chicago, Bryant is just the latest person to fall victim to injury, as they are already coping with the losses of Ben Zobrist and Jayson Heyward.

On the mound for the Cubs (EVEN) will be the veteran left-hander Jon Lester (5-4 3.83 ERA). Lester got this season off to a less than stellar start, but in his last 3 outings the Cubs have gone 3-0, while Lester himself has gone 2-0 with one game being a no decision. Lester (5-4 is exactly what the Cubs need to try and silence a Nationals offense that has scored 6 or more runs in both of the last 2 games. Lester has regularly hit and exceeded the 100-pitch mark, and if he can do that tonight I think the odds are going to play in his—and the Cubs—favor.

On the mound for the Nationals (-120) will be Joe Ross (4-3 5.40 ERA). Ross, who has been in MLB for 2 years now, has had a decent season, but not one worth writing home about. Though he doesn’t necessarily bleed runs, Ross has been consistently giving up a large amount of hits to opposing teams. In his last 3 outings, Ross has given up a total of 24 hits, totaling an average of 8 hits per outing. If you are going to give up this many hits, it is almost inevitable that you are also going to give up runs. In most of Ross’ winning outings the Nats have scored a healthy amount of runs. Understanding this, it goes without saying that the Nationals will have a tough time winning on Thursday if they cannot get runs across the plate.

All things told, I think the Nationals have more power on the offensive side of the ball, but will be facing off against a pitcher that is fully capable of shutting them down. The Cubs, on the other hand, have be struggling offensively but will be facing off against a pitcher that gives up a lot of hits. Of all the games in this series, this is perhaps the most evenly matched; and the odds back this up.

Betting Prediction

As far as the likely outright winner is concerned, I think you have to go with the Cubs (EVEN) in this one. First and foremost, the Cubs need to win this game to ensure that they will, at worst, remain a single game behind the Brewers. Secondly, I think the Cubs are sending the stronger pitcher to the mound. I do not envision Lester giving up too many runs, and that is the focal point for why I think you should take the Cubs in this one. MyBookie has the Cubs moneyline at EVEN money, so this is also a good value bet as well.

Joe Ross is susceptible to giving up runs and the Cubs’ bats have been quiet so far this series. As such, I think another solid bet is the Cubs team over/under (-105/-125). If you take MyBookie’s team over (-105), you are placing another bet that offers solid value. As was mentioned earlier, Ross gives up a lot of hits. If the Cubs can do what most other teams have and get people on base, I think they will easily drive in 5 or more runs.

Finally, there is an alternate spread on MyBookie that has the Cubs listed as -1.5 run favorites (+165). I am continuing with my confidence in Jon Lester in making this pick. If Lester can keep the runs off the board, and if the Cubs can get their bats to be effective, I think they will emerge victorious by 2 runs, and more than likely more than that.