Twins Plan to Leave Boston with Series Split
Who: Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox
When: Thursday June 29th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Fenway Park—Boston, Massachusetts
The Twins began this 4-game series in Boston in less than impressive fashion, losing the first two games by decent margins and allowing the Red Sox to stay on pace in the front of the AL East Pack. On Wednesday, however, the Twins battled back and posted an impressive 4-1 victory. Looking to take some pride with them back to Minnesota, the Twins are gearing up to take 2 in a row come Thursday night.
What’s particularly interesting about both this game and this series is that it features two teams near the top of their respective divisions. Each and every night you could feel how much these games meant to the players, and I expect that Thursday will be no different. Both starting pitchers have high ERAs, so the early thought is that the bats will be red hot.
Game Overview and Analysis
As is always the case, the first thing we have to look at is who is starting for their respective teams. On the mound for Boston (-200) will be David Price (2-2 4.76 ERA), who is having a less than stellar year so far. Having said that, Price has a career record of 9-3 against the Twins and has earned the W in each of his last 5 decisions against them. Though he did give up 2 earned runs in his most recent outing last weekend against the Angels, history lends itself to Price in this one.
Taking the mound for the Twins (+170) will be Kyle Gibson (4-5 6.23 ERA). Gibson, like his opponent David Price, has not had the best of years up to this point. Having said that, history tends to shine Gubson in a brighter light than this season’s stats do once you consider the fact that, in 2 starts at Fenway, Gibson is 1-0 with an ERA barely over .50. Even against the Red Sox as an organization, Gibson has done quite well over the last few years.
As for who the better offensive team is, I would honestly have to say that these two sides match up fairly well against each other. Both are not extremely high-powered offenses, but they get the job done and have so far this season. Despite his awesome record at Fenway, I still think that David Price and the Red Sox have the upper hand in this matchup.
Betting Prediction
If you are looking for a moneyline wager, I will be the first to tell you that there is not much value on offer. The Red Sox are listed by MyBookie at -200, but I would not jump at that bet. The main reason for this is due to the fact that the odds do not match how I think this game will play out. I do think the Red Sox will win, but at -200 the value simply isn’t there.
A wager that also exists on MyBookie that I think you should take is with regard to the total over/under for the game. Right now, the over/under is listed at an even 10 runs (-110/-110). Being that Gibson does well at Fenway and that Price is a very skilled pitcher in his own right, I think the under (-110) is the bet you should take in this one. In addition to both of these pitchers being talented, they are both fully capable of lasting 6+ innings. If that happens I find it difficult to believe that this game will exceed 10 runs. On top of that, there is a good bit of value on offer for the under. And, to drive this point home even more, the first 3 games of this series only saw the combined total exceed 10 once, and that was with much weaker pitchers on the mound for both teams.
The spread in this game currently sees Boston listed as 1.5 run favorites (-110) while the Twins, +1.5 underdogs, are listed by MyBookie also at -110. Though it is far from a sure thing, I think the Red Sox are going to take this one, and if they do I do not see them having many issues winning by more than 2 runs. In fact, in each of Boston’s 2 wins this series, they have beaten the Twins by at least 3 runs.
The only Twins bet I can get behind—despite it still being on I am wary of—is an alternate spread which sees the Twins as 2.5 runs underdogs (-185). Once again, I can see the Red Sox winning by 3 or more runs, but if Gibson puts on another impressive performance in front of the Red Sox faithful, this is not only a solid wager, but also one that offers at least a little better value than a Red Sox moneyline wager. Being that this game features two teams that are very evenly matched, I feel as though the action through the first few innings will set the tone for how the rest of the game will play out.