Underdog Red Sox Go For 6 Straight in Toronto and Series Sweep
Who: Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays
When: Wednesday August 30th, 2017 7:07PM EST
Where: Rogers Centre—Toronto, Canada
To say that the Red Sox have been dominating the Blue Jays this year would be an understatement. When they meet for their 3rd and final series game on Wednesday, Boston will be looking to win its 6th consecutive game at Rogers Centre. Understanding this, it only follows that the Red Sox have taken the first 2 games of this series. The first game was a hard-fought 6-5 victory, but Tuesday night’s matchup saw Chris Sale and Co. blank the Jays. For perspective, Boston are 4 games atop the division while Toronto are 14 games off the pace.
I fully expect the Red Sox to keep their foot on the pedal on Wednesday night, and am expecting them to take the series sweep. At this point in time, the playoff picture is becoming a bit clearer and the Red Sox seem to be all but guaranteed to make the post-season. Of course, there is still a month of baseball to be played, but most people have decided that the Red Sox are the best team in the AL East.
Coming into Wednesday night’s matchup, the Blue Jays will be fully aware of their last week’s worth of play. Over their last 6 games, the Blue Jays have won just 1 game. Even more shocking is the fact that all 6 of these games were at home. By all accounts, the Blue Jays recent performances perfectly typify how this season has gone. For them, it hasn’t so much been a lack of run production that has been holding them back, but rather a lack of solid pitching. Everyone, from the top to the bottom, of the Blue Jay’s pitching staff has struggled with consistency this year, and when you have that type of problem in Major League Baseball, it is going to be nearly impossible to string together solid performances.
Game Overview and Analysis
When Boston (EVEN) take the field on Wednesday, they will be sending Rick Porcello (8-15 4.57 ERA) to the mound. At first glance, the fact that Porcello has nearly double the losses that he has wins might unnerve you, but those stats alone do not tell the whole story. Of his 8 wins, half of them have come in the month of August; a clear sign that he seems to be hitting his stride as the season winds down. His record over his past 5 starts is an impressive 4-1, and perhaps even more impressive is the fact that he has regularly been able to last 6+ innings. His most recent outing at home against Baltimore will be one that he will like to forget, but all in all Porcello has been pitching fine as of late.
As for the Red Sox offense, they are moving along at a consistent clip. Things really seem to be clicking on the offensive side of things, and if Boston can complement that with consistently solid starting pitcher outings, they will not only make the playoffs, but be a force to be reckoned with as well.
For the Blue Jays (-120), JA Happ (6-10 4.10 ERA) will be making the start. Though, like Porcello, Happ’s record may be a bit unnerving, he has been one of Toronto’s solid pitchers this year. His record over his last 5 starts is 3-2, however he seems to be trending in the opposite direction because his most recent 2 starts were both losses. What’s more, he gave up 5 earned runs in both of those aforementioned outings.
The thing about the Blue Jays, it really is all about their starting pitcher. Over the course of this season, solid offensive performances by the Jays have been undone by poor pitching. Though there is next to no hope for the playoffs for this year, that is something Toronto will be hoping to fix as they begin to look ahead to the 2018 campaign. While I would like to say that the Jays have a solid chance of avoiding a sweep at home on Wednesday night, I simply do not think that is true.
Betting Prediction
If we are talking moneyline bets, I really like the Red Sox (EVEN). The even money odds listed by Bovada offer you a lot of value. What’s more, it is no secret that the Sox have been absolutely dominant against the Blue Jays in Toronto this year. I understand that Porcello is not the best starting pitcher for the Red Sox, but I think he will be more than enough for them to earn a victory.
The point spread sees the Red Sox listed as +1.5 underdogs (-175), and I think this is also a solid bet to take. I think the Red Sox are going to win this game, so it only follows that they should be able to cover a 1.5 run spread. The odds are not the greatest, but I think this is a fairly safe bet to make.