Underdog Pirates Look to Prevent Series Sweep at Hands of Favored Cubs
Who: Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs
When: Wednesday August 30th, 2017 8:05PM EST
Where: Wrigley Field—Chicago, Illinois
Now that we have basically made our way into September, the Pirates hopes of making the post-season are, flatly, fading quickly. Now 9.5 games off the pace in the NL Wild Card race, and 9 games back of the team they have been playing since Monday, the Pirates need a miracle to advance through to the playoffs. By most accounts, this is simply not shaping up to be Pittsburgh’s year.
Over the last few weeks, the Pirates’ job has gotten increasingly difficult thanks to some poor play on their part. Though they were able to take 2 of 3 from bottom-feeders Cincinnati, they lost 3 of 4 against the Dodgers and 2 of 4 against the Cardinals. In fact, the 2 consecutive losses against St. Louis were preceded 4 additional consecutive losses. The fact of the matter is that the Pirates cannot string wins together, and that will ultimately be the main reason they do not make the post-season.
As for the Cubs, they have not exactly been playing their best baseball, but they have been doing more than enough to hold their own. Right now, the defending World Series champions are 3.5 games ahead of the pack in the NL Central and are being viewed as shoe-ins as far as making the playoffs is concerned. Only a few weeks ago this was not the case, but the Cubs have rattled off an 8-3 record over their last 11 games, and have managed to put some distance between themselves and the Brewers.
So far this series, it has been the Cubs’ pitching that has earned them victories. In the 2 games played so far, the Pirates have managed to score just 2 total runs. If the Cubs can keep run tallies low again, it is clear to see that their offense should be able to take care of the rest.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for the visiting Pirates (+175) is perhaps the only guy who can prevent his team from being swept, Ivan Nova (11-11 3.97 ERA). Though Nova has had a solid season up to this point, his last few outings may be a cause for concern for the Pirates heading into the series-closing game. Over his last 4 stars, Nova has accrued a 1-3 record. In his most recent outing, he managed to last only 5 innings and gave up 5 earned runs during that outing. There is a lot of belief that he will bounce back, but that is something that remains to be seen. If Nova is able to last at least 5 innings, he will have bested his single-season tally of number of innings pitched. This record will all be for naught should Nova be pounded around the park.
As for the Pirates’ bats, they simply need to get going. If there was a Cubs pitcher for them to get rocking against, it is Wednesday night’s starter. Whether or not they can actually get things rolling or not, however, is a different thing entirely.
For the Cubs (-205), they will be sending Jose Quintana (8-11 4.49 ERA) to the mound. For a rotation that has performed as well as the Cubs’ has, Quintana is one of the lone holdouts that continues to struggle with consistency. Putting this inconsistency into perspective is his last 3 outings. 2 of the 3 were wins in which he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs. The 3rd, however, saw him give up 6 earned to the Phillies, who are perhaps the worst team in MLB.
If Quintana can put together even an average performance, I think him and the Cubs have no worries about earning a series sweep, but if he comes out and gives up 6+ runs, the Pirates will likely be able to take a game.
Betting Prediction
Being that Bovada has the Cubs (-205) listed as heavy, heavy favorites, I am recommending that you stay away from their moneyline. My reasoning behind this is that I do not think the -205 odds accurately reflect the starting pitcher. I think Quintana is prone to being hit around, and even a modest wager at those odds might lose.
The over/under for this game is listed at 8.5 runs (-125/+105), and I am being bold when I say I think you should bet on the over (-125). The Pirates’ bats have not showed up thus far, but I have a feeling things will turn around on Wednesday evening. All things considered, I would not be surprised if the total number of runs eclipsed 8.5 fairly easily.
The final wager I am going to suggest is the team over/under for the Pirates, which is currently listed at 3.5 runs (-110/-120). Despite having scored only 1 single run in their first 2 games of this series, I think the Pirates will get on the board on Wednesday. There is no real basis for this other than the Pirates are in dire need of a win, and in order to win they need to get some runners across the plate. What’s more, Quintana got hit around last time out, so there is some belief that his struggles may extend into tonight as well.