Underdog Pirates Host Rival Phillies
Who: Philadelphia Phillies v. Pittsburgh Pirates
When: Monday July 3rd, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: PNC Park—Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Pirates and Phillies have drastically different outlooks on their respective seasons by this point in the season. The Pirates, who are 6 games off the pace in the NL Central, are still clinging to hopes that they will be able to make a postseason berth. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 20 games off the pace in the weak NL East, and just came off a series in New York that saw them lose 2 of 3 to the Mets. When they make the cross-state trip to Pittsburgh, the Phillies will be sending a pitcher to the mound that struggled earlier, but has been performing decently as of late.
The Pirates have been inconsistent all season long, but if there was ever a time to turn that inconsistency around, it would be during their homestand against their incredibly weak intrastate rivals. I think the Pirates have more than enough power and skill to get past even the best the Phillies have to throw at them. Game 1 will not be easy with Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies, but I still think the Pirates have got to be favorites in both the game and the series.
Game Overview and Analysis
If you can remember, this is not the first time the Pirates (-102) have faced off against Aaron Nola (5-5 4.13 ERA). Towards the end of May, Nola faced Pittsburgh and put on a 7-inning performance that saw him give up only one run on four hits. While that still resulted in a loss for the Phillies (-118), it showed that Nola is a more than competent starting pitcher. Since that outing near the end of May, Nola’s performances have been a roller-coaster, of sorts.
The Phillies’ offense has been just one of their many problems so far this season. Their inability to score runs coupled with a pitching staff that has been as far from consistent as one can be has resulted in what is one of MLB’s worst records. When Pirates’ starter Ivan Nova (8-5 3.08 ERA) last faced the Phillies back in May, he had no problems. He lasted 7 and 1/3 innings, gave up only 3 runs, and earned a victory. What sticks out about that performance in particular is that fact that in those 7 and 1/3 innings, Nova only threw 90 total pitches, which is one of his lowest pitch count totals of the year.
Something that I think really gives the Pirates an advantage in this series is the fact that they have been doing better and playing more consistently. Andrew McCutchen, who was struggling through the first 2 months of the season, really picked it up in June. During the month of June, McCutchen has a .401 average and hit in 27 RBIs in just over 30 games. Though their recent sweep at the hands of the very weak San Francisco Giants is a poor way to stay in the playoff race, the Pirates really need to take advantage in this series with the Phillies.
Betting Prediction
The Pirates enter this game as slight underdogs according to Bovada, and are listed at -102 on the moneyline. I understand that the Pirates are coming off of being swept, but I really think that they are hugely superior to the Phillies in just about every way. What’s more, we have already seen that Ivan Nova is more than capable of keeping the Phillies’ bats quiet, and I see no reason to believe that that is not going to happen again. On top of all of this, the -102 odds offered by Bovada give you a good bit of value.
As far as the over/under is concerned, it is listed by Bovada at 8.5 runs (-115/-105). I think that this is a risky wager, but I think that you have to go with under 8.5 runs (-105). In Pirates and Phillies’ last series, the run total eclipsed 8.5 on 2 occasions across 3 games, but just barely. I do not think Nova is going to give up many runs and I think that Pirates will win by a somewhat slim margin.
A bet that does not offer all that much value, but is somewhat safe in the grand scheme of things is a spread bet on the Pirates, who are +1.5 run underdogs (-200). Seeing as I think that Pirates are going to win this game outright, this bet is fairly safe. Even if they do end up losing—a result I think is unlikely—there is still a chance you will be able to cover that spread.
The Pirates have a team over/under of 3.5 runs (-145/+115), and I do think that they will hit the over on this one. With that being said, I am not overly confident that this will happen. This really all depends on how effective Aaron Nola is, as the Phillies bullpen really struggles.