Angels Head to Minnesota as Underdogs
Who: Los Angeles Angels v. Minnesota Twins
When: Monday July 3rd, 2017 8:10PM EST
Where: Target Field—Minneapolis, Minnesota
When the Angels and Twins meet for the first game of their series on Monday, they will be doing so from very similar positions in the AL Wild Card race. Both teams will also be starting young pitchers who have recently begun to shine. Though neither of their records are overwhelmingly great, they both put in solid months of June, and will be looking to do exactly that during this month as well.
The Angels will be entering this game coming off of a 5-3 loss against division rivals, Seattle. In fact, the Angels ended up losing 2 of 3 in their series with the Mariners, a team the Angels would be expected to take care of at home. If you add this most recent series to the one that preceded it, the Angels have now lost 2 of 3 in each series. That makes 4 losses in their last 6 games. If they want to stay relevant in the AL Wild Card race, they are going to have to make their case in Minneapolis this week.
The Twins are in perhaps worse form than their Los Angeles opponents. They will be coming back to Minnesota after an 11-game roadtrip that saw the Twins win just 4 games. In their most recent series, a 4-game stint against the Royals, the Twins lost 3 of 4.
Game Overview and Analysis
As things usually go, we need to look at tonight’s matchup through the lens of the starting pitchers. On the mound for the Angels (+101) will be former Twins player, Alex Meyer (3-4 3.78 ERA). So far this year, the Angels’ young starter has performed well, for the most part. Unfortunately for him, he struggles with his control and that has resulted in a few poor performances, including a recent outing in Boston that saw him give up 5 earned runs. In his most recent outing, Meyer seems to have regained some of his control as he went 6 innings and did not give up a run. The game resulted in a no decision for Meyer, and he did walk 5, but the outing was a decent one on the whole.
The Twins (-121) will send Adalberto Mejia (3-3 4.38 ERA) to the mound for his 12th start of the year. The thing about Mejia is that he is currently in fine form, even if the Twins as a team are not. During their woeful road trip, Mejia earned wins in 2 of the 4 games won by Minnesota. In each of those outings, Mejia did not give up a single run through 5+ innings. While he did struggle during the early months of the season, Mejia has recently come on as a pitcher that very well might save the Twins’ postseason hopes.
As far as offenses go, I think the Angels have the advantage in this game. They have some big hitters on their squad and have been hitting better in recent weeks. With that being said, the Angels’ offense stalled in their last series as they were only able to drive in 3 total runs in 3 games. Breaking it down even more, the first two games of the series saw the Angels score 0 runs in each. The Twins’ offense has not been bad by any stretch of the imagination, but they consistently give up large sums of runs, and that is not going to make winning any easier.
Betting Prediction
As far as the outright winner of this game is concerned, I think you have to go with the Twins (-121) in this one. Minnesota has been playing poorly on the offensive side of the ball, but they have won both of the last two times that Mejia started on the mound. What’s more, Alex Meyer can be inconsistent and is prone to giving up runs. If he gets rattled early on, the Twins will be able to build a big advantage early on.
Bovada’s over/under is another proposition that really interests me. Right now, the over/under is 10 runs (EVEN/-120). I think the under (-120) is the bet you want to place in this game. Meyer may be prone to giving up runs, but I do not think either of these two pitchers will give up that many. 10 runs is a fairly large tally, so I think you need to go with the under.
The team over/under for the Twins is listed at 4.5 runs (-120/-110). It may be a bit risky, but I think over 4.5 runs (-120) is the way to go in this one. Like we have been saying all along, Alex Meyer is prone to giving up runs. If he keeps up that kind of inconsistency, the Twins are fully capable of scoring 5 or more runs. I wouldn’t risk a lot of money on this wager, but it is one that offers you some decent value.