MLB Baseball Betting for July 29, 2016
Full card of Major League baseball action for Friday:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR JULY 29, 2016:
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT MIAMI MARLINS:
Important series for both teams. Both the Marlins and Cards are in second place in their respective divisions and have had little luck trying to run down the leader. The Cardinals have cut the Chicago Cubs advantage in the NL Central to 6 games (all records pending the outcome of Thursday’s late action) while the Marlins are 4.5 games back of the Washington Nationals. The Marlins have split their last 10 games while the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last two games following a 5-4 win over the Marlins on Thursday.
St. Louis has been a solid team all season but still have a couple of significant issues. One has been their substandard play at home–the Cardinals are 25-30 at home against a 30-17 record on the road (+15 units). The Cardinals also need to bolster their bullpen and are hoping to do that via the trade market in the next few days. The starting rotation–when they’re on form–is pretty good. On Friday, the Cardinals will start righthander Mike Leake and he’s been decidedly mediocre this season. The Cardinals are 9-11 in his 20 starts this season though they have gone 6-4 in his ten road starts. Overall, Leake has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.317 WHIP on the road. St. Louis is 2-1 in Leake’s previous two starts off of a 3.79 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP. Leake does have an impressive 25 strikeouts in his last 19 innings pitched with no walks.
Miami will counter with Jose Urena who is something of an interesting story. Urena was hit hard last year as a starter and earlier this season in relief. In two starts this season, however, Urena has been phenomenal. He’s developed a two-seam fastball that has been extremely tough for opposing batters to deal with. In his two starts he’s pitched 11.7 innings allowing 8 hits, 2 earned runs and 9 strikeouts against only 1 walk. It is important to keep that in context, however, as he’s turned in these numbers against two of the weakest hitting teams in baseball–the NY Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. The Cardinals are a much tougher opponent–they hit right handers very well and have made money against them this season (42-30 +9 units).
Just not sold on Urena while the Cards have been consistent–if not dominant–all season long.
BET ST. LOUIS CARDINALS +115 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
COLORADO ROCKIES AT NEW YORK METS:
The Colorado Rockies are surprising everyone at this point including their own fans. They were going nowhere just a few weeks ago but are all of a sudden playing great baseball. On Thursday, they took a come from behind victory over the New York Mets after closer Jeurys Familia blew his second save in less than 24 hours after going 52 games without one. Also on Thursday, the Rockies broke an 0-42 streak when trailing after nine innings in a 2-1 win over the Mets. Last year, Colorado was finding ways to lose games and did that with regularity. This season–or at least recently–they’re finding ways to win games.
But does it matter? The Rockies have won 7 of their last 8 and are now 2 games under .500. They’re 7 back of the second place Los Angeles Dodgers and 9.5 back of the NL West leading San Francisco Giants. With the Dodgers ‘treading water’ and the Giants in horrible form (L8 of 10) the Rockies could very feasibly find themselves in the mix at the top of the division. Yet despite their solid run it appears as if the team will be ‘sellers’ at the MLB trade deadline.
Tyler Chatwood is coming off a couple of bad games at Coors Field (7/10 against Philadelphia and 7/19 against Tampa Bay) but he’s been excellent on the road this season. Colorado is 7-1 in his road starts and Chatwood has a 1.30 ERA and a 1.014 WHIP. He’s not the first Rockies’ pitcher to struggle at home and excel on the road. He’ll be opposed by lefthander Steven Matz who has been solid though nothing spectacular. He’s got a 3.53 ERA overall, a 3.71 ERA at home and a 3.50 ERA in his last three. The Mets are 10-8 in his starts overall, 4-5 in his home starts and 1-2 in his last three starts.
Colorado has hit lefthanded pitchers well this season–5.2 runs per game and a .258 batting average. That’s 1.5 runs per game more than the Mets have averaged overall and against right handed pitching. We’ll ride the Rockies at a nice underdog price.
BET COLORADO ROCKIES +145 OVER NEW YORK METS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT ATLANTA BRAVES:
The Philadelphia Phillies are a bad team but the Atlanta Braves are a dumpster fire of epic proportions. The Phillies took game one of this weekend series on Thursday night and the Braves’ pitiful record at Turner Field gets even more pitiful. Atlanta is 14-35 -18.8 units at home and 11-26 -11.5 units against opponents with losing records this season. Translation–the Braves have become a measuring stick and no team wants to lose to them. The Phillies have made a nice profit on the road this year (24-26 +6.9 units) and have been profitable against teams under .500 (23-20 +5.1 units).
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -150 OVER ATLANTA BRAVES