MLB Baseball Betting for July 28, 2016
Short card on Thursday with only 9 games on board including a ‘write in game’ between Baltimore and Minnesota:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR JULY 28, 2016:
COLORADO ROCKIES AT NEW YORK METS:
Just when the baseball world was about to heap dirt on top of the Colorado Rockies they come back to life. They’ve won 6 of 7 and while sweeping moribund Atlanta at home was no big deal going on the road and taking two of three from AL East leading Baltimore is another thing entirely. The nice run leaves the Rockies all alone in the middle of the pack in the NL West. They’re 5.5 games up on fourth place San Diego so they’re opening some distance between themselves and the divisional bottom feeders. The still have 7.5 games to go to run down the second place Los Angeles Dodgers and ten games to catch the swooning–but still in first place–San Francisco Giants.
The uptick has left the Rockies fans not quite knowing what to think. It looks like they’ll still be ‘sellers’ at the trade deadline which is probably the right move for a team 3 games under .500. There’s not really any sense that the team has a shot to get back into the NL West race. This series will determine a lot as the Rockies hit to the Northeast to take on a beatable but still decent NY Mets team that has split their last ten games. They could still be sulking over Wednesday’s loss when the Cardinals came back in the top of the 9th to score two runs and win a game that the Mets had already put into the ‘W’ column. Mets’ closer Jeurys Familia had converted 52 consecutive saves so their optimism was understandable. The Cardinals haven’t looked dominant at any point in the season but they keep finding ways to win games like this. The loss leaves the Mets 5.5 games out of first place where the Washington Nationals have lost 6 of 10. They’re also 1.5 games back of the second place Miami Marlins. This could be a tricky ‘lookahead’ series for the Mets as they won’t get any intrinsic motivation from the Rockies and have a series with the hated New York Yankees beginning on August 1. The Mets have won 7 straight against Colorado at home which doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll do the same here. It can also mean that they’ll take them lightly feeding into the ‘lookahead scenario’. Jacob Degrom is pitching and he’s excellent but the Mets have only won 9 of his 17 starts this season. If you’d bet on him every time out you’d be -2 units in the hole. We’ll back the Rockies here as hefty priced underdogs.
BET COLORADO ROCKIES +170 OVER NEW YORK METS
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
Two bad teams. In terms of current form it’s a mediocre team against a dumpster fire. The Brewers are 5-5 in their last 10 and so far have been able to keep the surging Cincinnati Reds (7-3 L10) in their rear view mirror. Arizona is going nowhere. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games and 6-14 -8.4 units in the month of July. They did get a win in Wednesday’s game.
Arizona will start lefthander Robbie Ray here–the Diamondbacks are 6-14 in Ray’s 20 starts this season including 2-8 on the road. He’s got a 4.45 ERA and a 1.509 WHIP overall and a 3.86 ERA and a 1.491 WHIP on the road. They’ve lost 2 of his last 3 starts though Ray hasn’t pitched badly with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.294 WHIP. Milwaukee will counter with right hander Zach Davis who has been decent all year (3.64 ERA 1.182 WHIP) but has been in great form of late. The Brewers have won 2 of his last 3 starts and Davies has put up a 1.35 ERA and a 0.950 WHIP. Brewers have made money against lefthanders going 18-14 +7.5 units averaging 5 runs per game while Arizona has lost a ton against RHP going 29-44 -13.5 units. Milwaukee has the pitcher in better form and shouldn’t have much trouble hitting Arizona’s Ray.
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS -130 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT ATLANTA BRAVES:
Both teams are lousy but Philadelphia at least has *some* upside. Both teams have lost 7 of 10 but Philadelphia still leads last place Atlanta by 10.5 games. The Braves have been pitiful at home with a 14-35 -17.8 record. Matt Wisler gets the start for Atlanta–the Braves have lost 8 of his 10 starts at Turner Field this season and 14 of 19 overall. He’s got a 9.98 ERA in his last 3 games. Aaron Nola has been struggling for Philadelphia but with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP he looks like Greg Maddux by comparison.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -130 OVER ATLANTA BRAVES
BALTIMORE ORIOLES AT MINNESOTA TWINS (WRITE IN GAME):
The Orioles and Twins play a write in game at Target Field before the O’s head to Toronto for a big three game weekend series against the Blue Jays. Orioles have dominated Minnesota this season (5-0 overall, 2-0 in Minnesota) and the Twins are a perfect opponent for Ubaldo Jimenez’s return to the mound. Jimenez looked terrible earlier this season but he’s taken most of the past month to work on his mechanics. Twins have lost a ton of money against RHP this year–they’re 25-48 -19.2 units against RHP this season. Orioles are 42-30 +10.5 units against RHP.
BET BALTIMORE ORIOLES -105 OVER MINNESOTA TWINS