Indians Favored Over Reds in Rain-Out Makeup
Who: Cincinatti Reds v. Cleveland Indians
When: Monday July 24th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Progressive Field—Cincinatti, Ohio
When the Reds and Indians meet on Monday night, the situation will be an interesting one, to say the least. For one, this is not the beginning of a series or anything like that. The game on Monday night is being held to make up for a game that was rained out towards the end of May. What’s more, these two teams are in drastically different positions with regard to what they hope for moving forward into this season.
On one hand, you have the Reds, a team that has called the basement of the NL Central home for most of this season. On the opposite side you have the Indians, a team that was just one game away from winning the World Series last year and is looking to build upon that performance this time around. On paper, there are few matchups that could be more one-sided than this one. With that being said, the 3-game series that was originally supposed to include this game saw the two teams split the 2 games that were played. In all reality, tonight’s game will determine who wins a series that is about 2 months in the making.
As far as momentum is concerned, I am going to have to give it to the Indians. They just took 3 of 3 from the Blue Jays and have a 1.5 game lead in the AL Central. The Reds, on the other hand, lost 2 of 3 to the Marlins and have not recently displayed much worth writing home about.
Game Overview and Analysis
The Cleveland Indians (-183) are heavy favorites heading into this single-game matchup, and for good reason too. On the mound for the Indians will be 7-year MLB veteran Josh Tomlin (6-9 5.74 ERA). While his quick stats do not do much to impress anyone, the simple fact of the matter is that Tomlin has been having a solid last few weeks. His last 2 outings have both been earned wins, and he was able to last at least 7 innings in both games. The Indians, as a whole, put on an impressive display against Toronto, and only allowed a total of 5 runs across 3 games. Meanwhile, the Indians plated 23, more than 4x that amount.
Tomlin is susceptible to giving up a few runs, but with an offense as powerful as the Indians’ this has proven to be a non-factor more often than not. Added to this is the fact that he will be facing an offense in the Reds that is not very effective. All things considered, it seems as though this might end up being Tomlin’s 3rd consecutive victory.
On the mound for the Reds (+158) will be Tim Adleman (5-7 4.96 ERA). Unlike Tomlin, who is seeing his season get better and better with each fresh start, Adleman has been seeing his season grow increasingly dismal. His last 4 starts have resulted in 3 losses and 1 no-decision, and the number of runs he has been giving up seldom leave his team a chance to win. In his last 2 starts alone, Adleman has given up 8 earned runs. Making his susceptibility to giving up runs even more apparent is the fact that, in all 10 of his last 10 starts he has given up at least one homerun.
If you add this poor pitching to the fact that the Reds are not the most offensively effective team in MLB, it becomes easy to see why no one is giving them much of a chance in this one.
Betting Prediction
The -183 moneylines odds are not the best, but if you are going to take a moneyline wager in this one it has to be the Indians. While there is potential for a lot of value to be had on a winning Reds wager, things are not looking like the Reds will have much of a chance. In all honesty, staying away from the moneyline altogether would not be a bad idea.
Right now, Bovada is listing the over/under at 9.5 runs (-110/-110). Being that Adleman has done nothing other than give up runs, and that Tomlin gives up runs even when he wins. The over (-110) might be a solid bet to make in this one. After all, the Indians were able to score a boatload of runs during their last series with the Blue Jays. There is an alternate over/under of 7.5 runs (-235/+180), but the odds are not so great.
Finally, the last proposition that sticks out to me in this one is the Indians’ team over/under, which is listed at a whopping 5.5 runs (+105/-135). While you rarely see a 5.5 team over/under, I still think your best bet is to take the over (+105). The over offers some good value on a wager that would have hit in 2 of the last 3 Indians’ games.