How European Bookmakers View The US Presidential Election

Betting on Presidential elections has an interesting history in the United States. Until the second half of the twentieth century it was very common–though ‘officially’ prohibited in most jurisdictions. In some local jurisdictions that wasn’t the case. New York City was the epicenter of election betting in the early 20th century. Throughout the 1920’s, ‘official betting commissioners’ took action on Presidential elections in the open. They even set up shops in the financial district where anyone could walk in and ‘get down’ on the outcome of the election. The 1916 election between Woodrow Wilson and Charles Evans Hughes was very close and ended up being one of the most heavily bet Presidential elections with the equivalent of $300 million wagered.

There was a practical justification for betting on the Presidential election in the days before widespread and (at least quasi) scientific polling methods. It was one of the most accurate ways to determine who was winning and by how much. The daily Presidential betting odds were reported in all major papers and the information interpreted in much the same way that pundits analyze polling data today. In fact, the improvement in polling was one of several convergent factors that put an end to political betting. The media no longer needed the information it provided. Legalized gambling–originally on horse racing–gave more options to gambling enthusiasts as did immigration which helped create a ‘shadow market’ in sports betting and other forms of wagering. Finally, Wall Street thought that the association with betting was bad for their reputation. These factors helped bring about the end of political betting in the United States. In fact, it is one of the few types of betting explicitly prohibited in Nevada’s gaming regulations.

Outside of the United States, however, there’s still plenty of betting options. One of the most robust wagering markets is in Europe and more specifically the United Kingdom which is home to legal sports betting, ubiquitous bookmaking shops and extensive betting on political elections both home and abroad. You can find prices on the US election at most every major UK based bookmaking shop or website. Although most bookmakers don’t break out specific revenue on American political wagering the 2016 election is expected to be one of the most heavily bet in history.

Here are some propositions and prices from major European bookmaking shops:

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING

Party to win Presidency:
Democrats: -300
Republicans: +240
Independent: +6600

Winning Candidate–2016 Presidential Election:
Hillary Clinton: -300
Donald Trump: +240
Joseph Biden: +5000
Bernie Sanders: +6600
Tim Kaine: +12500
Gary Johnson: +20000
Paul Ryan: +20000
Mike Pence: +25000
John Kasich: +50000
Jill Stein: +50000

Odds are also available on a state by state basis. Some books offer only major states and or states with a closely contested vote. Other books offer lines on all 50 states. Here’s a few from major and/or ‘battleground’ states:

TO WIN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BY STATE:

Winning party in specified state voting for president will be:

ARIZONA:
Democrats: +300
Republicans: -450

COLORADO:
Democrats: -250
Republicans: +175

FLORIDA:
Democrats -175
Republicans: +125

GEORGIA:
Democrats: +350
Republicans: -600

IOWA:
Democrats: +225
Republicans: -300

MICHIGAN:
Democrats: -400
Republicans: +275

PENNSYLVANIA:
Democrats: -333
Republicans: +240

SOUTH CAROLINA:
Democrats +900
Republicans: -3300

VIRGINIA:
Democrats: -600
Republicans: +350

Some bookmakers offer a wider range of proposition bets covering special circumstances such as the ones below:

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS:

Impeachment Specials:
Donald Trump to win the Presidency and resign due to impeachment in his first term: +1600
Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency and resign due to impeachment in his first term: +5000

Candidate Resignations
Hillary Clinton to not be Democratic Party Nominee on November 8, 2016: +800
Donald Trump to not be Republican Party Nominee on November 8, 2016: +1400

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.