Cardinals, Brewers Kick Off All-Important Divisional Series
Who: St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers
When: Tuesday August 1st, 2017 7:40PM EST
Where: Busch Stadium—Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Apart from the Reds, who have been out of the playoff race for some time now, the NL Central is anyone’s division to grab ahold of. For the time being, it is the defending World Series Champion Chicago Cubs that are 2.5 games ahead of everyone else. After defeating the Brewers twice by slim margins to win 2 of 3, the Cubs have now moved somewhat comfortably into first place.
For Milwaukee, their story is similar to just about everyone else’s in the division; it is either now or never. If they cannot improve upon their offensive struggles—which have seen them go more than 0-30 with runners in scoring position lately—their hopes of finishing the season and heading into the post-season will begin to fade faster than they already have. The simple fact of the matter is that you need all aspects of your game to be clicking in order to be a viable playoff team. Even with the most solid of pitching staffs, it is going to be impossible to win over the long-term if you cannot hit.
The Cardinals are just 4.5 games off the pace in the NL Central, but unlike the Brewers have not really come close to threatening much at all this year. The Cards have been one of the utmost inconsistent teams in MLB. Highlighting this perfectly is a few snippets from their past two weeks. In one series, the Cardinals lost 2 of 4 to the incredibly weak Mets, while another series saw them sweep the Rockies in three games; something few teams have done this year.
Though this is not such good news, the bright spot of it all is that there is still time left. The Cardinals can still turn things around, however there are very few out there who think that they will.
Game Overview and Analysis
When the Brewers (-123) take the field on Tuesday night, they will be sending Jimmy Nelson (8-5 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Nelson’s 8-5 record might lead you to believe that he is having a good season, and he is, but the fact of the matter is that the Brewers’ offense has not been offering him all that much help. When your offense is consistently putting up less than 4 runs in a game, even some of the most solid nights of pitching might not end up with a solid result.
For both this game, series, and the duration of the series, the Brewers will really need to step up their offensive game. Putting into perspective just how poor the Brewers have been from the batting box of late, they have not scored more than 2 runs in a single game in 4 consecutive outings. That is flat-out poor and is not even close to being indicative of a post-season team. If that does not change, neither will the Brewers’ fast-fading fortunes.
The Cardinals (+103) will be sending Carlos Martinez (7-8 3.52 ERA) to the mound. Martinez, in a lot of ways, is like Jimmy Nelson in that he does not receive much help from his offense. In quite a few outings, Martinez has made it at least 6 innings without giving up more than 2 runs only to still be credited with either a loss or no-decision. Unfortunately for him, his prospects on Tuesday night do not look to be all that much better.
The Cardinals are entering this series in much the same way the Brewers are, because they have scored more than 2 runs once in their last 4. That one occasion was a 3-2 victory against the Diamondbacks a few days ago. From the looks of it, a 3-run homerun by either team might be more than enough to secure a victory tomorrow.
Betting Prediction
As far as a moneyline wager is concerned, I think you have to go with the Brewers (-123) in this one. While both offenses have been inconsistent, my opinion is that the Brewers have more to play for and are, in truth, the better overall team sending out the better of the two pitchers. In the end, it is still a close game, but one that I think Milwaukee can and should win.
As far as the over/under is concerned, Bovada currently lists it at an even 8 runs (-120/-110). Being that both of these teams have recently struggled to score more than 3 runs in any single game, I think that the under (-110) is the most logical bet. While it is not very often that you see a baseball over/under as low as 8, it also isn’t very often that two teams can combine for 8 games where neither were able to score more than 3 runs even once.
There is a point spread that sees Milwaukee listed as -1.5 run (+165), but the point spread is a wager I would stay away from in this one.