–’Naked and Afraid XL’ is an ‘all star’ spin off the Discovery Channel hit series ‘Naked and Afraid’
–Contestants on ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ must last 40 days in the wilderness compared to 21 days for the original series.
–Season 4 Episode 4 of ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ airs on the Discovery Channel on Sunday, June 3 at 10:00 PM Eastern.
Note: No tapouts through the first three episodes of ‘Naked and Afraid XL’. I have updated the ‘first contestant to tap out’ odds and prices on some of the other prop bets based on my observations during the season to date. I’ll start my weekly analysis with the Week 5 odds or after the first tapout occurs.
If you’ve never seen the Discovery Channel’s hit series ‘Naked and Afraid’ or the spin off ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ allow me to explain what the deal is. In ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ 13 ‘survival experts’ are dropped off in the wilderness naked and presumably afraid. The goal is to survive in the wilderness for 40 days without food, water or clothing. Contestants are each allowed to bring one or two ‘helpful items’ of their choosing. In some seasons, the producers give the contestants a third random item. ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ is essentially a more challenging ‘all star’ version of the original ‘Naked and Afraid’. In the original, contestants had to survive only 21 days without food, water or clothing. If a player can’t take it any more due to illness, injury or any other reason they can ‘tap out’ and leave the competition.
Season 4 of ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ started on the Discovery Channel on May 6. This season there will be 13 contestants. 12 contestants will be split into four teams of three. The 13th contestant is Matt Wright and he’ll ‘go solo’ without a team though he can theoretically join a team later. Three of the contestants had to ‘tap out’ before completing 40 days in their original XL appearance. 7 of the contestants are XL ‘first timers’ following a successful stint on ‘Naked and Afraid’. Through the first two episodes there are no ‘tapouts’.
Oddly enough, I found plenty of statistical data to work with in setting the numbers on ‘Naked and Afraid XL’ Season 4. The format of the show is interesting because there are no ‘winners’ and no announced prizes for completing the show. If a contestant completes the 40 day challenge he gets little or nothing more than the accomplishment itself. Since there are no ‘winners’, however, the usual reality show odds market is out the window. Instead, I had to do the opposite and set a market on the first contestant to ‘tap out’ in Season 4 along with some other ‘tap out’ props. Additionally, I did some TV ratings props.
Another interesting component of the show is that unlike most reality TV shows there’s no ‘forced elimination’. A player can tap out at any time but there’s nothing like a ‘tribal council’ at the end of each episode.
Here are the odds for Season 4 of ‘Naked and Afraid XL’:
‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’ SEASON 4 BETTING ODDS
FIRST CONTESTANT TO ‘TAP OUT’ IN SEASON 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’?
Duck Campbell: +200
Melanie Rauscher: +750
Jeremy McCaa: +750
Sarah Dancer: +900
Lindsey Eichler-Leitelt: +900
Gary Golding: +900
Melissa Miller: +900
Kaila Cummings: +2500
Trent Neilsen: +2500
Shane Lewis: +2500
Lacey Jones: +5000
Matt Wright: +5000
No Players ‘Tap Out’ In Season 4: +25000
TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTESTANTS TO ‘TAP OUT’ IN SEASON 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’?
Over 3.5 Players: -210
Under 3.5 Players: +180
TIME OF FIRST CONTESTANT ‘TAP OUT’ IN SEASON 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’?
On or before Day 15: -170
After Day 15: +150
GENDER TO HAVE THE MOST ‘TAP OUTS’ IN SEASON 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’?
SEASON 4 EPISODE 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’ RATING ADULTS 18-49?
Over 4.5: -135
Under 4.5: +115
SEASON 4 EPISODE 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’ TOTAL VIEWERSHIP?
Over 1.45 Million: -150
Under 1.45 Million: +130
SEASON 4 EPISODE 4 OF ‘NAKED AND AFRAID XL’ CABLE ORIGINAL PROGRAMS RANK FOR SUNDAY, MAY 20?
Over 7.5: -130
Under 7.5: +110
Ratings data information from Showbuzz Daily will be used for grading purposes.