MLB Baseball Betting for September 20, 2016

We’ll have plenty of football later in the week but for Tuesday we’ll focus on busy card of baseball action:

MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 20, 2016:

ATLANTA BRAVES AT NEW YORK METS:

You’ve got to give the Atlanta Braves some props–they’ve continued to play hard in the second half even though they have absolutely no reason to do so. They have the worst record in the National League and the second worst in the Majors. They’re going to finish in last place in their division unless the 4th place Philadelphia Phillies stumble badly. Despite no intrinsic motivation they’ve started to resemble a real Major League Baseball team in the second half of the season. On Monday, Atlanta pitcher Aaron Blair got his first win in 13 Major League starts as the Braves ripped the New York Mets 7-3. The Mets got a rare bad start from Noah Syndergaard. New York had entered this game in excellent form–11-5 +4.2 units in the month of September.

The Mets are still in the top wild card spot pending the outcome of the late Monday games. New York has a 1/2 game lead over the second wildcard spot San Francisco Giants. The St. Louis Cardinals are 1/2 game back of the Giants. These three teams are vying for two spots but they could have company with Miami just 4.5 games back and Pittsburgh just 5 games behind. All the Braves really have to play for at this point is to avoid finishing with the worst record in baseball. The Minnesota Twins likely have that dubious distinction sewn up–they have 4 fewer wins than the Braves and have lost 7 of 10. Atlanta has won 3 straight and have split their last 10 games.

Atlanta will start right hander Julio Teheran on Tuesday. Teheran is nominally the Braves’ best pitcher and has continued to pitch well throughout Atlanta’s nightmare season–even as he’s been ‘hung out to dry’ by his team more often than not. Teheran has a 3.18 ERA on the year with a 2.82 road ERA. The Braves are 7-20 overall when Teheran starts including 5-6 on the road. He could be poised for a strong performance against the weak hitting Mets (averaging 3.9 runs per game).

New York will counter with rookie right hander Robert Gsellman. The Mets have split Gsellman’s four starts this season though he’s pitched fairly well in the process. In his last three starts he’s gone 16 2/3 innings allowing 5 earned runs and putting up 14 strikeouts against 6 walks. The Braves have been awful against right handers this year but they’ve done a good job reversing their first half losses. They’re 43-62 but are now +1.1 units on the season. They’re also 33-43 +12.7 units on the road.

The Braves are the better offensive team and if they give the seasoned vet Teheran some run support they can win this game. We’ll take the road team.

BET ATLANTA BRAVES +110 OVER NEW YORK METS

WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT MIAMI MARLINS:

The Miami Marlins have been bumbling through the past six weeks of the season but might have finally decided to make a run at the NL East leading Washington Nationals. hThe Marlins have won 6 of 10 and cut the Nationals lead to 8 games but they’re running out of time to run down the division leaders. Washington isn’t helping their cause having lost 3 straight and four of six. The Marlins might have a decent shot at making the playoffs via the wild card. Pending Monday’s late games going final the Marlins are 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot currently held by the San Francisco Giants and 5 games back of the New York Mets in the first wild card spot.

Washington will start right hander Tanner Roark who has been capable throughout the season and particularly sharp in his recent starts. For the year, Roark has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.194 WHIP with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.193 WHIP on the road. For the year, the Nationals have won 19 of his 30 starts and 9 of 14 on the road. In his last three starts he’s gone 18 innings allowing 3 earned runs for a 1.50 ERA and a 1.278 WHIP with the Nationals winning two of these games. Roark could have a strong game here as Miami has been awful against right handed pitching this year with a 52-63 record for a loss of -17.5 units.

Miami will start right hander Jose Fernandez who has been erratic this year but consistently excellent at home. Overall, he’s got a 2.99 ERA with a 1.153 WHIP but at home his ERA is an impressive 1.77 with a 0.993 WHIP. Overall, the Marlins have won 17 of his 28 starts including 11 of 15 at home. They’ve also won 2 of his last 3 but Ferandez had a couple of marginal games on the road. His only home start during this stretch was excellent–7 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER and 14 strikeouts.

Washington has been an inconsistent team all season but they’ve done one thing well–they’ve beaten up on divisional rivals with a record of 48-23 +16.4 units. Fernandez has been excellent at home but he might be overvalued at this point.

BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS +140 OVER MIAMI MARLINS

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.