Yankees Slight Favorites In Series Opener With Tampa Bay
Who: Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees
When: Thursday July 27th, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: Yankee Stadium—New York, New York
Just a few weeks ago, the New York Yankees were a few games up on the rest of the AL East and were looking like the eventual winners of the division. Now, one game back of rivals Boston, New York begins a crucial 4-game series with the Rays. The thing about this series, however, is that it isn’t just the Yankees who are in need of wins. The Rays are also vying for the playoffs and are currently just 2.5 games off the pace of Boston in the East.
For the Rays, the time to improve is here. Heading into the All-Star Break they were comfortably leading the AL Wild Card race. Now, barely 2 weeks later, the Rays are now on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. The Rays’ inconsistencies combined with a very good run of play from the Royals has meant that the Rays are now out of both AL Wild Card spots. They will fight to get back into playoff contention, but that fight will first take them through New York City.
The Yankees are still in a playoff spot, but they too have been playing some lackluster baseball since the All-Star Break. This week, however, they seem to be pulling it all together as they enter this series on the back of a 2-game sweep of the Reds, and after taking 3 of 4 from the Mariners. For many, this series will be a test that will determine which of these two teams really deserves to make the playoffs. After all, when it comes down to it there is little chance that both the Yankees and the Rays make the playoffs should the Sox and the Royals continue what they have been doing over the past few weeks.
Game Overview and Analysis
On the mound for Tampa Bay (+101) will be the right-hander Chris Archer (7-6 3.77 ERA). After having a lot of success early on in his career against the Yankees, Archer has struggled recently. So far this year he has faced the Yankees twice and has one won and lost one. Overall, Archer’s longevity in games has been counteracted to some extent by his inability to keep runs off the board. In fact, if you look at his last 10 outings there has not been a single game where he kept a clean sheet. Though the run tallies have not exactly been large (none more than 4 earned), he is not doing his offense any favors.
To make a long story short, if the Rays’ bats are not functioning, the likelihood that Archer will earn a win is not very high. Having not recorded a win since the 4th of July against the Cubs, Archer will clearly be trying to restore winning habits when he steps out onto the mound Thursday night.
For the Yankees (-121), CC Sabathia (9-3 3.44 ERA) will be making his 17th start of the season. CC is one of the best pitchers in MLB on a good night, but woefully poor on other occasions. Luckily for him, the number of times where he has played poorly has been outnumbered by his great performances. CC’s last few games have been off the charts, and Yankees fans are hoping that trend continues tonight.
His last 2 starts, both of which have been wins, Sabathia has given up only 1 earned run in 11 complete innings pitched. For the Yankees, it is good news that Sabathia is playing well now as the hope is that this form will spill over to the playoffs if and when the Yankees make them.
Betting Prediction
Judging mostly off the starting pitchers in this one, I think you have to place a moneyline bet on the favored Yankees (-121). Though they are favored, the odds are in a bettor’s favor as a winning wager will earn you close to even money. CC Sabathia has been on absolute fire in his last 2 starts, and I see no reason as to why that will not continue tonight.
A wager I really like because of its potential value is the point spread that sees the Yankees listed as -1.5 run favorites (+165). Once again, my recommendation for this bet is being largely based on Sabathia. We all know that the Yankees can hit, and so long as their pitching complements the hitting I see no reason why the Yankees will not win by 2+ runs.
Finally, the last wager I think you should place is the Yankees team over/under, which is currently listed at 4.5 runs (+105/-130) by Bovada. I think the Yankees will beat Archer up in this one, and because of that do not think a 5+ run tally is out of the question.
If you take just one of these three wagers, I think the moneyline is your best bet.