Visiting Dodgers Favored Over Streaking D-Backs
Who: Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks
When: Tuesday August 29th, 2017 9:40PM EST
Where: Chase Field—Phoenix, Arizona
When Arizona and Los Angeles meet for their series opener Tuesday night, they will do so as some of the most heated division rivals of 2017. Though separated by nearly 20 games on the NL West table, the Diamondbacks and Dodgers are both expected to make the playoffs by the time the season is over. In fact, with more than 90 wins already it’s close to mathematically impossible for the Dodgers to miss out. Though the Diamondbacks are far from post-season shoe-ins, they look like they will be able to hold their own heading down the stretch.
The Dodgers will enter this series having lost their most recent one, a 3-game stint at home versus the Brewers. Having only scored 2 runs in the series’ final 2 games, the Dodgers prolific offense will be looking to get back on track Tuesday. Apart from that recent slip-up, however, the month of August has been as kind to the Dodgers as just about every month that preceded it. After all, you don’t have 90+ wins heading into September by accident. Right now, the Dodgers are MLB’s best.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, will be entering this game and series on the back of 4 consecutive victories. While they still sit very far off of the division lead, the D-Backs are 2 games ahead of the Wild Card pack, and have been for quite some time. So long as they can continue to do what they have been doing so far this season, the next month’s worth of games will take care of themselves and they will be in the playoffs. A series with the Dodgers is never going to be easy, but it will provide a nice test as they gear up for the post-season.
Since this is a 3-game series, Bovada has graced us with moneyline odds regarding which of these two teams will win at least 2 of the 3 games. Right now, the teams are evenly matched, but the visiting Dodgers (-135) are slightly favored over the hosts, Arizona (+105). Seeing as the Dodgers rarely lose back to back games, and even more seldom lose back to back series, I think you have to take the Dodgers (-135) to win the series.
Game Overview and Analysis
Starting on the mound for the visiting Dodgers (-127) will be the left-handed veteran, Rich Hill (9-5 3.32 ERA). Though Hill has not been as effective as some of the other Dodgers starters, his winning record and low ERA tell you all you need to know. In his last 7 starts, Hill has accrued a 4-1 record, with a few no-decisions sprinkled in. Whether he earns a result or not, the one consistent with regard to Hill;’s game is that he does not allow many runs. In that 7-game span, there was not one outing where his earned-run tally exceeded 3, and many occasions where it was less than that.
So long as the Dodgers’ bats can bounce back from their quiet spell over this past weekend, I think Hill will put his team in perfect position to win the game. Sure, they are going to be on the road in front of a crowd that does not like them too much, but the Dodgers have 91 wins for a reason, and I think that will be perfectly exemplified on Tuesday evening.
As for the hosting Diamondbacks (+107), they will be sending youngster Zack Godley (5-7 3.15 ERA) to the mound. Godley may have a losing record, but what sticks out more than anything is his ERA. Like Hill, Godley tends to keep opposing batters in check and does not give up many runs. With that being said, his confidence may be ailing to some extent, seeing as he will be entering this game on the back of 3 straight losses.
While I would like to point to the Diamondbacks’ offense as the deciding factor in this game, I think it is really going to come down to how Godley pitches. If he has a solid outing and the bats continue rolling, the D-Backs may open the series with a win. If he gives up runs early, it may end up being a very long night.
Betting Prediction
Based primarily upon Godley’s recent starts, I am going to have to give the moneyline bet to the Dodgers (-127) in this one. I think they will bounce back from their poor performance against the Brewers this weekend, and I think they are going to make Godley’s night a miserable one.
As for the over/under, it is currently listed by Bovada at an even 9 runs (-105/-115). While I am of the opinion that the Dodgers’ bats will have a solid outing, I cannot say the same for the Diamondbacks. As such, I think your best move is to take the under (-115).