Underdog Pirates Poised to Take Series Opener From Hosts Milwaukee
Who: Milwaukee Brewers v. Pittsburgh Pirates
When: Tuesday August 15th, 2017 7:40PM EST
Where: Miller Park—Milwaukee, Wisconsin
The Pirates and Brewers are two peas in a pod; at least since the All-Star Break. The reason I say this is because both of these teams have gone from playoff hopefuls to fringe contenders (at best) in a very short period of time. Before the unofficial midway point in the season, strong arguments could have been made in favor of one (if not both) of these teams making the playoffs. Now, both teams are in need of the MLB equivalent of a miracle just to have a chance. Sitting 6 and 8 games out of a Wild Card spot respectively, the Brewers and Pirates need to act now or be content with watching the playoffs unfold from home.
Being that this is a divisional series, it will have a rivalry feel to it. This may not be such a good thing for the Pirates, who may have raucous Milwaukee crowds to contend with. Regardless of what the playoff picture looks like, both teams flat-out need to start winning lest their season will be officially over before the end of August.
As far as recent form is concerned, the Pirates look to be the better of the two teams. Though they just went 2-3 on a road trip, their last 10 games have seen them go 6-4. The Brewers, on the other hand, have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games. Perhaps most unnerving of all for the Brewers was the fact that all 6 of those aforementioned losses happened in consecutive games. These are the kind of performances that separate playoff teams from those who will miss out, and right now it seems as though the Brewers are inching closer and closer to being knocked out of playoff contention with each and every passing game.
Game Overview and Analysis
The most exciting thing about this game is the pitchers who will be starting for both side. For the Pirates (+105) is will be Ivan Nova (10-9 3.87 ERA) who will be making the start. Nova, who has otherwise been solid this whole season, has struggled over his past 4 starts. In those 4 games, Nova has accrued an 0-3 record along with plenty of earned runs. In just 2 of those 4 starts, Nova is credited with a total of 13 earned runs.
Against an offense like the Brewers, Nova is going to need to step up his level of play otherwise he will be hit all over the greater Milwaukee area. Despite this, Nova gives up runs. Whether he emerges a winner or loser, the fact of the matter is that there have been few occasions this year where Nova did not let runners across the plate. What this really means is that his offense will have to pick up the slack if he wants to avoid falling to an even, .500 record. Considering the Pirates are coming off back to back losses that resulted in a total of 3 runs being scored, things are not exactly looking up for the Buccos.
As for Milwaukee (-125), they will be sending right-hander Zach Davies (13-6 4.40 ERA) to the mound. Davies may be edging in on 15 wins this season, but one look at his ERA and it is clear to see that he is not without flaw. For Davies, his biggest Achilles Heel is the fact that he is so inconsistent. One game he can last 7 complete innings without giving up a single earned run, but will follow that up with a performance where he barely even makes it 5 innings and gives up 5+ earned runs in the process. He has had limited success against the Pirates this year, but will hope to build on those outings tonight.
If Davies wants to have a chance at defeating Pittsburgh and earning his 14th win, the recipe is quite simple: keep runs off the board. If he can keep the earned runs to a minimum, I think the Brewers will take the opening game of this series. What’s more, Neil Walker, a former Pirate, will be looking to take advantage of his previous team, and history is pointing towards him having a successful night.
Betting Prediction
Based almost solely off of the starting pitchers in this matchup, I think I am going to have to go with Ivan Nova and the Pirates (+105). The way I see it, both of these pitchers are more or less evenly-matched, but the teams they play for are in drastically different form. I think the Pirates are playing better baseball and that is why I think you should take their moneyline.
The over/under for this game is listed at an even 9 runs (-115/-105). I like the over (-115) in this one because both of these pitchers struggle with control, and both of these teams have players who can hit the ball around the park. If one of these pitchers struggles at all, the likelihood of this game going over is great. If both pitchers struggle, I would not be surprised to see the total run tally eclipse 9 before 5 innings have passed.