Rockies Underdogs After Game 1 Series Loss
Who: Colorado Rockies v. St. Louis Cardinals
When: Tuesday July 25th, 2017 8:15PM EST
Where: Busch Stadium—St. Louis, Missouri
The St. Louis Cardinals are one of those teams whose playoff hopes appear to be uncertain, at best. Unfortunately, the waters are muddied further when you consider the inconsistencies present in both the bullpen and batting lineup. A direct result of these inconsistencies has been a slew of close losses. In fact, their last 10-game road trip saw them drop 6 games, 3 of which were decided by walk-offs. What’s more, a 4th loss was the result of 2 runs being scored with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th inning, giving the Cubs a 3-2 victory. To make what can be an even longer story a bit shorter, the Cardinals need to find consistency lest they will be on the outside looking in once the playoffs arrive.
Right now, the Cards are just 4 games back of a division-leading Brewers team that has been leaving a lot to be desired of late. If they can pull things together and build off of Monday night’s emphatic 8-2 win over Colorado, they will be one step closer to their playoff goals.
For the Rockies, the story is now the exact same as it has been all season long. The team from Denver are hitting well, pitching well, and playing solid defense. What this has translated to is a more than 11-game lead atop the NL West; a lead that does not look like being relinquished anytime soon. Though this series got off to a rough start for Colorado, they have still won 6 of their last 8 and are in good form overall. I fully expect that the Rockies can bounce back in game 2, even while being fully aware of the Cardinals’ need for a victory.
Game Overview and Analysis
Taking the mound for the visiting Rockies (+105) will be Jon Gray (3-1 6.19 ERA). The 2-year veteran has started just 7 games this season for the Rockies, and despite giving up some runs here and there has been fairly solid. His last outing last week against the Padres saw him earn a win via pitching 6 complete innings. Though he was credited with 4 earned runs, all of those runs were given up once Colorado already had an established 13-0 lead.
Gray’s only starting experience against the Cardinals is from May of 2016, where he did not even make it through 3 whole innings and gave 9 earned in the process. While Gray has undoubtedly improved over the past year, a quick look at his stats will show you that he is still very muich susceptible to giving up a few runs. Luckily for him, the Rockies’ offense is one of the most potent in MLB, so even a propensity for giving up runs may not be too big of a deal.
For the Cardinals (-125), it will be Lance Lynn (8-6 3.30 ERA) who will be taking the mound. Lynn was having a season of ups and downs through the first few months, but has since turned things around, quite noticeably too. In his last 3 starts, Lynn has pitched just under a cumulative 20 innings and has given up just 1 earned run in the process. That is a truly remarkable statistic, especially for a Cardinals team that can really struggle on the offensive side of things.
If the Cardinals can support Lynn on the offensive side of the ball, I do not foresee them having too many issues recording a victory. With that being said, however, the Rockies feature a high-powered offense of their own, so if this becomes a hitting duel it very well might favor Colorado.
Betting Prediction
In strictly looking at the teams in this game, I am going to have to recommend that you make a moneyline bet on the Rockies (+105). I do understand that they were defeated by 6 runs and only scored 2 on Monday night, but, for me, that is more of an outlier than anything else. In their 6 games previous to last night they managed to score 5 or more runs every time out, and scored more than 10 on 3 occasions. With +105 odds, I think the Rockies moneyline is one of the better value bets you can place on Tuesday across MLB.
The over/under listed by Bovada is currently sitting at 8.5 runs (-105/-115). If you follow baseball in any capacity, you are more than well-aware of the fact that this is a small line. I think that your best bet in this one is the over (-105) for no reason other than that the Rockies are a powerful offense as well as one that can score more than 8 runs on their own. In fact, to put this in perspective, out of their last 8 games, the Rockies have, themselves, exceeded the 8.5 run tally on 5 occasions. In short, I think this over is a great bet to take.