Quick & Easy Steps for a Winning March Madness Bracket

March Madness is not only the biggest betting event in the US in terms of amount wagered but it’s almost certainly the largest in terms of participation. Office pools have been ubiquitous for decades and it’s no surprise to see everyone in a workplace filling out brackets from smarmy salesmen to fifty-something office ladies. A 2015 Career Builder survey indicated that 20% of all US office workers have participated in a NCAA basketball tournament pool which translates to around 25 million employees! The growth in technology that has transformed the American workplace over the past decade suggests that office pools and fantasy sports are only going to get more popular—information technology workers are the most likely profession to have participated in a March Madness pool at work.

Based on this data it’s not the least bit surprising that March Madness is a huge moneymaker for casino sportsbooks in Nevada. The NCAA Basketball Tournament has attracted more wagering action than the Super Bowl for several years now and that’s not going to change any time soon. The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported that basketball junkies bet a record $375.5 million in March 2105. Nevada’s gaming revenue data doesn’t break down overall basketball betting but casino industry analysts suggest that 70% is on college hoops.

BASIC MARCH MADNESS BRACKET STRATEGIES:

It’s not necessary to go overboard with your analysis to enjoy a March Madness pool but the reality is that winning is much more fun than losing. College basketball experts know a few fundamental concepts for winning the NCAA hoops tournament that the general public ignores. By paying attention to a few simple rules you can get ahead of the game with little or no effort:

–IGNORE THE NAME ON THE JERSEY: Or, to put it another way, focus on the current performance of a team and not the ‘legacy’ of the school they represent. The mainstream sports media loves to talk up traditional powerhouse programs and will often imply that this gives them some type of advantage. Do you really think that the 2016 UCLA basketball team struggling to stay above .500 under head coach Steve Alford has an ‘edge’ because of the dominance of the John Wooden era Bruins? From a betting standpoint, you can often find value just by going against ‘traditional powerhouses’ and ‘public favorites’ as bookmakers know that they’re ‘overvalued’ and set the lines accordingly. In an office pool situation, don’t be afraid to go against a big name program with a successful mid-major school.

–RECENT FORM: Serious sports analysts love to talk about a team’s ‘recent form’ and with good reason. Momentum is everything in sports and particularly college basketball. In light of that, it’s essential to place a greater emphasis on what a team has done during the later stages of their regular season schedule and (if applicable) their conference tournament. You want to avoid teams that start strong but struggle down the stretch as they seldom—if ever–‘turn things around’ heading into March Madness. On balance, college basketball schedules get more demanding as the season progresses. A team that had trouble winning games as the competitive level improved is not a team you want to back come tournament time.

–DEFENSIVE INTENSITY: This should be obvious to even a casual sports fan but it bears repeating. Teams that win with a potent offense are seldom successful March Madness teams. Conversely, less talented teams that play nasty defense are often capable of going on a run come tournament time. This has been true for decades: John Kresse’s teams at the College of Charleston, John Chaney’s Temple Owls of the 80’s and 90’s, and recently Shaka Smart’s teams at Virginia Commonwealth. The mainstream sportscasters will throw around terms like ‘Cinderella’ and ‘upset special’ but you know who is never surprised when these teams do well? Professional sports bettors who live in big houses on golf courses in Las Vegas and milk the ‘nasty defensive team’ cash cow season after season.

Mathematicians will explain that there’s a higher degree of variance with offensive output in sports. The simple explanation: teams that play good defense are less susceptible to upsets than teams that need to produce offensively to win. The best defensive teams in college hoops allow 65 points per game or fewer. The best offensive teams score 75 points per game or more. Look for opportunities to play on good defenders and against high scoring teams. You don’t need to be a database analysis expert to find this information–it’s available at the NCAA’s official website.

–HOME COURT ADVANTAGE: In theory, NCAA tournament games are played on a ‘neutral court’. In practice, however, that isn’t always the case. The NCAA often ‘plays favorites’ by seeding top teams and perennial darlings (Duke, North Carolina, etc.) close to home. Teams from the so-called ‘Mid Major’ conferences are often sent packing across the country. Teams that play close to home benefit in several ways—less demanding travel logistics and stronger fan support among the most important upsides. Even on a theoretically neutral court that’s a significant advantage over a team that has to fly thousands of miles to play in front of a hostile or indifferent crowd. While we won’t know the teams and matchups for the NCAA Tournament until ‘Selection Sunday‘ there’s plenty of information already available about where and when March Madness games will be played.

You don’t have to be a number crunching professional to get an edge during March Madness. All it takes is a bit of knowledge about what to look for—and what not to look for when filling out your bracket.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.