Political Odds–2016 Presidential Election Betting Mid-Week Update
The second Presidential debate was the beginning of another absurd week of the US political process and as has been the case in the past the only way to make it entertaining is to hang some betting odds on it. I posted a bunch of ‘post debate 2’ proposition bet odds earlier this week but there was just no way to cover all of the ridiculous storylines in just one article. As long as the electoral mayhem continues at this rate there will be no shortage of ‘bettable propositions’.
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Next President of the United States 10/10/16:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +7500
The previous two odds updates:
Next President of the United States:
Hillary Clinton:-400
Donald Trump: +350
Other: +3300
And the odds before the second debate:
Next President of the United States BEFORE DEBATE #2:
Hillary Clinton:-333
Donald Trump: +240
Other: +3300
It appears that Trump may have finally done something that even his supporters can’t accept. Until now, they had largely ignored the various scandals and feigned ‘outrage’ from his political opponents. We figured out a long time ago that Hillary Clinton couldn’t do anything to alienate her support base. I assumed that Trump’s supporters were the same and it did make some logical sense. At this stage of the election, anyone who hasn’t been alienated by either candidate long ago shouldn’t all of a sudden be expected to consider the dubious character of Trump and Clinton and rethink their support. The consensus polling date at RealClearPolitics suggests that Trump’s numbers have dropped significantly in the past week from 44.2% to 41.8%. The other half of the equation is less surprising–Hillary isn’t picking up the voters that have tapped out on Trump. Her support has essentially remained the same over the week and, in fact, saw a fractional decline from 48.1% to 48%. Hillary isn’t so much winning the election at this point as Trump is losing it. He might have found a way to lose his supporters but no one can make Hillary more likable.
The betting odds on the election outcome showed minimal immediate movement in response to Trump’s vulgar comments and the second debate. As we observed in our last update the price on Hillary Clinton went from -333 before the second debate to -400 after it. Since then, however, it’s shown significant movement. The current price shows Hillary a -600 favorite at most betting outlets with a couple showing her at -650 or -700. This would make the takeback price on Trump somewhere between +400 and +500 at most outs.
PRESIDENTIAL SPECIALS AFTER DEBATE #2
Rules: All Presidential Special props will be ‘no action’ if Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton are not their party’s candidate unless otherwise noted.
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
66% or more: +1200
62%–65.99%: +350
58%–61.99%: +210
54%–57.99%: +200
50%–53.99%: +200
49.99% or less: +1200
The poll data also suggests a lower voter turnout than expected with our previous odds update so these odds have been updated slightly to reflect this. Interestingly, the European sportsbooks offering a similar proposition have yet to see any change in their voter turnout pricing. The fact that Trump lost 2.4% of his support over the past week with Hillary’s support staying the same for all intents and purposes logically suggests a similar drop in voter turnout. Even if you factor in the two biggest third party candidates you reach a similar conclusion as the numbers for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are lower or unchanged over the past week. The takeway is that Trump’s support has dropped over the past week but they’re not flocking to either of the other candidates. They’re just going to stay away from the polls like most intelligent Americans.
There’s a confluence of factors suggesting that the 2016 voter turnout could be a historic low. Political partisans prattle on about ‘how important’ this election is but fewer and fewer voters are buying their scam.
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
Over 51.7%: -130
Under 51.7%: +110
The low water mark of voter turnout was during the 1920s. Voter turnout in 1920 was 49.2% and in 1924 was 48.9%. These are the only two reported voter turnouts for a Presidential election less than 50% in modern history. Turnout in 1996 (Clinton’s second term) was 51.7% which is the lowest since 1924. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that there’s a vested interest for the political class to ‘report’ a voter turnout number that is more favorable so for now I’ll make the ‘Over’ a slight favorite. If a low voter turnout reflects disdain for the candidates involved this will stay ‘Under’. These may be the two most unlikable candidates in history which should reduce the dynamic of people turning out to ‘vote against’ a candidate.
Winning popular vote share margin:
Clinton 20%+: +800
Clinton 15-20%: +800
Clinton 10-15%: +500
Clinton 5-10%: +175
Clinton 0-5%: +350
Trump 0-5%: +600
Trump 5-10%: +2000
Trump 10-15%: +3300
Trump 15-20%: +5000
Trump 20%+: +6600
These odds are based exclusively on poll numbers. As I’ve said before, I don’t care who wins and won’t be voting. Ditto the following prop bet odds on electoral college margin:
Winning electoral college margin:
Clinton 410+: +800
Clinton 390-409: +1000
Clinton 370-389: +800
Clinton 350-369: +400
Clinton 330-349: +300
Clinton 310-329: +800
Clinton 290-309: +1200
Clinton 270-289: +1400
Tie 269-269: +10000
Trump 270-289: +1400
Trump 290-309: +1600
Trump 310-329: +2000
Trump 330-349: +3300
Trump 350-369: +5000
Trump 370-389: +6600
Trump 390-409: +10000
Trump 410+: +5000
Finally, some prop bets that cover several extreme scenarios:
Presidential Election Outcome Props:
Clinton to win popular vote by over 10%: +250
Trump to win popular vote by over 10%: +2000
Popular vote winner loses in Electoral College: +1200
Election winner anyone other than Trump or Clinton: +2000
Obama still to be sitting President on Feb 1 2017: +1750
Tune in this weekend for some prop bet odds on the Presidential race in individual states.