Political Betting–2016 Presidential Election Monday Update
There’s been a good deal of movement in the betting odds over the past 24 hours. Some is due to the betting dynamic that I explained in our previous update. It also seems like there’s quite a bit of ‘buying’ on the news that FBI Director James Comey has ‘cleared’ Hillary Clinton again. That whole situation has been bizarre and I’d believe any backstory that might come out on that. I’ve got theory–and at this point that’s all it is–that Hillary might have *orchestrated* the entire Weiner investigation email ‘revelation’ and subsequent Comey announcement that she’s been ‘cleared’ again.
I don’t have any proof but the logic is derived from pro wrestling. When a pro wrestler ‘loses’ it’s called ‘doing the job’. When he loses cleanly that’s called a ‘clean job’. When there are extenuating circumstances like outside interference, a foreign object, a ref bump or whatever its called a ‘screwjob’. You’ll see a lot of championship matches end in a ‘screwjob’ since it gives the guy taking the loss a bit of plausible deniability. Sure, he may have lost but it wasn’t *really* his fault since the other guy’s manager hit him with a chair or whatever. So what if Clinton saw the race tightening and wanted her own ‘storyline’ so she wouldn’t have to do a ‘clean job’? If Clinton loses to Trump ‘cleanly’ it’s a blow to her ego that she couldn’t accept. But if it’s the fault of Comey and the ‘vast right wing conspiracy’ (never mind that Comey was an Obama appointee) she’s got the perfect cover story that will allow her to ‘save face’ with her supporters if she should lose. If she wins, it’s a non-issue. Anyway, that’s a theory….
Here’s the updated Sports Betting Expert Presidential Election 2016 odds followed by some analysis:
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 11/07/16:
Hillary Clinton:-500
Donald Trump: +375
Other: +3500
The prices on 11/5/16:
Hillary Clinton:-275
Donald Trump: +200
Other: +3500
The prices on 10/31/16:
Hillary Clinton:-300
Donald Trump: +225
Other: +3000
The prices on 10/27/16:
Hillary Clinton:-525
Donald Trump: +415
Other: +3750
Our previous update on 10/25/16 looked like this:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +4500
LINE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS
What’s interesting about the latest line movement is that there doesn’t seem to be any correlation with polling on the Presidential race. Until now, there’s been a strong correlation between poll movement and odds movement. If Clinton’s polling numbers start to look more favorable, the prices on her go up and vice versa. The most recent line moves have come despite no movement in the polls which have been at Clinton +1.8 in a two way race vs. Trump and +2.2 in a four way race against Trump, Johnson and Stein for several days now.
The European sportsbooks are all showing odds between -500 and -600 and that movement has pushed ‘our’ price up as well. Market conditions force this movement though I don’t really see a huge change in the dynamic of the race based on Comey’s announcement. Anyone that is voting for Clinton has ‘priced in’ the emails and her general sleaze factor a long time ago. The fact that she’s not going to get charged by the FBI for *this* crime is good news for her personally but isn’t going to change any minds about who she is. There’s no one that was going to vote for Clinton prior to the ‘Weiner email announcement’ that changed their mind based on that and will change their mind *back* based on today’s Comey statement.
Under a different set of circumstances, a bookmaker might *want* to attract as much money on one side by design. This is becoming less common in the age of corporate sportsbooks but if I was convinced that Trump will win I might set a price to draw all of the Clinton money that I could get. This isn’t the case in this election, however, which leaves me in a bit of a no win position as a bookmaker. I don’t necessarily see the marketplace the same way as everybody else but my goal with this election is to maintain good ‘two way action’. If I hang a line where I *think* it should be based on my perception of the race it’ll produce a lower number of Clinton than found anywhere else in the marketplace. I’d *like* to have my line at -350 or -400 based on how I see things but if I did that I’d quickly attract enough Clinton money (since it would be the lowest price on the betting board) and at that point I’d be forced to move the line and I’d also have an imbalance in the money I’m holding. I’d rather move the line ‘on air’ and against my personal handicap of the situation and keep my financial status strong than be stubborn and find myself with too much money on one side.