Padres Expected to Take Game 1 in San Fran
Who: San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres
When: Monday August 28th, 2017 10:10PM EST
Where: Petco Park—San Diego, California
The Giants and Padres are about the two last teams you should turn to if you are looking to see high-quality baseball. With the Padres 34.5 games off of the pace, and the Giants more than 40 back, it is clear to see that the post-season was forgotten about a long time ago. Despite this, these two teams will open up a divisional series on Monday that is going to at least start off impressively.
The similarities between these two teams run deeper than their overall records, because both sides will be entering this series having been swept in their previous 3-game endeavors. The Giants lost 3 in a row at the hands of the Diamondbacks, while the Padres dropped 3 straight in Miami. While this might sound surprising, it is about par for the course for both of these teams. Neither of these offenses are exactly potent, and without putting runs across the plate the wins have not amounted. Though this is a matchup of 2 bottom-feeding teams, it is an even matchup across the board.
Being that this is a 3-game series, Bovada is offering moneyline odds on which team will win at least 2 of the 3 games. While these two sides are definitely evenly-matched, the visiting Giants (EVEN) are being listed as the underdogs. The hosting Padres (-130), on the other hand, are slight favorites. If you are going to take this wager, my recommendation would be to wager on the favored Padres (-130). So long as Chacin can have a solid outing in the first game of the series, I think there is a stronger chance that the Padres win 1 of the remaining 2 than the Giants winning 2 consecutive.
Game Overview and Analysis
The visiting Giants (-108) are going to send Jeff Samardzjia (8-12 4.67 ERA) to the mound to kickoff the series. Samardzjia may have a losing record overall, his most recent outings have been decent, to say the least. Across his last 6 starts for the Giants, Samardzjia has accrued a 4-1 overall record with 1 no-decision in which he only allowed 1 run in 6 complete innings pitched. In that most recent outing, he made it through 6 innings without eclipsing the 90 pitches mark; a testament to how effective Samardzjia can be.
Though it feels like we say this about many of the lower-end teams, the problems come from the lack of run production more than anywhere else. Across Samardzjia’s last 10 starts, the Giants have lost 5 times, and of those 5 losses, 3 of them saw the Giants score 3 or fewer total runs. I have said it before and I will say it again, it does not matter how effectively you pitch if your offense cannot score runs.
On the mound for the Padres (-112) is going to be Jhoulys Chacin (11-9 4.10 ERA). For most other pitchers on most other teams, Chacin’s stat line might not seem as impressive as it truly is. For a pitcher who is on a team more than 30 games behind the division leaders, the fact that Chacin has accrued the stats he has is a testament to what he is capable of. Even more impressive than Chacin’s overall stats are his performances at Petco Park. Opposing batters are hitting just .182 against the right-hander, so to say that he has a bit of a home field advantage would have to be a very large understatement.
The way I see it, so long as the Padres can get a few runs on the board, the rest will take care of itself. Chacin has not slipped up at home thus far this year and we have no reason to believe that his woes will begin now. The one source of worry is that he is coming off one of his poorer performances of the season, but there are few people who are reading too heavily into that single game.
Betting Prediction
I think the choice has to be the Padres (-112) moneyline in this one. With Chacin on the mound, few people have had luck betting against him, and when he is at home this grows even truer. There is a chance that the Giants get the better of him, but coming off of a series where they scored 4 runs in 3 games, I think Chacin has this one in the bag.
Another wager I am interested in is the San Francisco Giants’ team over/under, which is listed by Bovada at 3.5 runs (-125/EVEN). I think the under (EVEN) is not only the more valuable bet, I think it is also the smarter bet simply because the Giants have a tough enough time scoring against half-decent pitchers, so one can only imagine how much they might struggle against someone of Chacin’s quality.