NHL Best Bets for March 12, 2016
Another big day of hockey action for Saturday. Three daytime start games so we’ll focus on the nighttime action. Nine nighttime start games but our only best bet is in a very important game for both teams in South Florida:
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS AT FLORIDA PANTHERS:
Where have these Philadelphia Flyers been all season? The Flyers were mediocre at best for most of the year but have exploded in the past few weeks to put themselves into playoff contention. Philadelphia is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and while they’ve picked off quite a few bottom feeders during that stretch they also have two wins over the Tampa Bay Lightning–one at home and one on the road. They beat the Lightning in the ‘Cigar City’ last night but we don’t expect too much ‘letdown’ here given the Flyers’ recent form. Statistically, Philadelphia doesn’t look like much. They’re #21 in goals scored per game (2.5) but lest we forget they spent a lot of time in dead last with a goals per game average less than two. They’re #14 in goals against (2.6), #14 on the power play (18.9%) and #21 on the penalty kill (79.8%).
Of course no one gets into the playoffs based on a favorable statistical profile alone. The Flyers are winning games and winning games when it counts. They’ve found a rookie of the year candidate in Shayne Gostisbehere. Philadelphia fans are dreaming when they suggest that he’s ‘better than Connor McDavid’ but that’s not the point–he’s a pretty amazing player in his own right. He’s set a record for most points in a game by a rookie defenseman (15) and he’s got 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points in 48 games. For a team that struggled to score goals early on that’s huge. He still needs to improve in his own end–he is a defenseman, after all–but at 22 years old he’s got plenty of time. He’s been a great addition to this team in other ways–he’s a competitive player but looks to be having fun playing hockey. Nicknamed ‘Ghost‘ (because of his last name, though he *is* a pretty pasty looking dude) he’s quickly become a fan favorite.
The Flyers are still three points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the final Eastern Conference wildcard spot. The Penguins got a tough break on Saturday with the announcement that Evgeni Malkin will be out for six to eight weeks. Malkin isn’t the only offensive weapon but he made Sidney Crosby’s life easier. The Penguins–and particularly Crosby–have been a different team since the early season coaching change but the loss of Malkin is a big blow.
Everyone was convinced that the Florida Panthers would fold down the stretch but they apparently haven’t gotten the memo. They’ve cooled off since their franchise record win streak but they’re still hanging in there. They enter play tonight tied with Tampa Bay for second place in the Atlantic Division with both teams three points back of Boston (who beat the Islanders on Saturday afternoon). They’ve only got four wins in their last ten games but at 4-3-3 another way of looking at it is they’ve earned points in 7 of their last 10. They ripped Ottawa 6-2 in their last action as the incredible and legendary Jaromir Jagr scored two more goals–at age 44 with a nine figure bank account. He’s now #3 on the NHL’s all time goal scoring list behind some guy named ‘Gretzky’ and some guy named ‘Howe’ that were supposed to be pretty good. Jagr is a freak. 44 year old men aren’t supposed to be playing in the National Hockey League at *all*, let alone at such a high level. He has no reason to do this. He’s rich, he’s a Hall of Famer, he dates models and yet he willingly endures the grind of the NHL season–not as a ‘nostalgia act’ but as a legit scoring threat and team leader. Obviously, ESPN doesn’t pay attention to hockey–they try to ‘bury’ the NHL since they don’t have a financial stake–but Jagr’s performance this year could very well be the best story in sports.
The Flyers will start Steve Mason–he’s shared time with Michal Neuvirth in the Philly net and both have been very effective at time. Neither are in the same class as Roberto Luongo, however. Philly has been mediocre at best on the road (14-14-5) while the Panthers have been very good at home (21-9-5) despite the pathetic support of South Florida fans. This is a very competitive team with talented youngsters (Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov), great goaltending (Luongo) and a legitimate legend doing the unthinkable on a nightly basis (Jagr). The management hasn’t done what a lot of franchises do–make the implied contract with the fans that if they ‘show up’ the team will improve. This is a talented, hard working and entertaining team that deserves a lot better than playing to 87% of capacity and ranking #26 in the league in attendance. There are plenty of instances where teams that aren’t supporting by the community deserve it. This is the opposite and the people of South Florida should be embarrassed by their apathy. I can think of at least a half dozen cities in the US and Canada right off the top of my head that would love a NHL team, particularly a competitive team. While I respect the ownership for trying to make a go of it in Miami the players and the great game of hockey deserves better. Make them the Portland, Seattle, Hamilton, Regina/Saskatoon or Quebec City Panthers and let them play in front of a full house every night. Just get them out of South Florida which deserves a NHL team less than two time losers Atlanta.
Anyway, as much as I like this Florida team and what they’re doing this year this is a tough spot to play them. The biggest issue–they’re overpriced given their relative form and particularly given the form of the visitor. Philly is in the second of back to back games (4-6 in that spot YTD) but Tampa to Miami isn’t a tough trip. More importantly, they’re clearly playing for a postseason spot and know this game is huge. The Flyers are 19-12 +12.1 units against opponents with winning records–hard to pass up an underdog in great form that plays well when they stop up in class.
BET PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +150 OVER FLORIDA PANTHERS