NFL Football Betting for September 18, 2016
The second Sunday of NFL action is upon us with a full slate of games:
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 18, 2016:
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
The Miami Dolphins put up a credible effort last Sunday losing 12-10 at Seattle. While it wasn’t clear if the Dolphins were playing well or if the Seahawks were rusty (most likely a little of both)the team has to be at least somewhat pleased though the ‘party line’ is that they’re not because they didn’t win. Not a good situation for the Dolphins here as they have to make another long trip the week after playing the brutally physical Seahawks.
Miami hasn’t been dominated by New England in recent years the way they were earlier in the decade. One thing hasn’t changed–New England has their number at home. Miami has been a tough foe for the Patriots when they play in South Florida. In fact, the teams have split the last four meetings both straight up and against the spread with each winning/covering on their home field. The last time they met was in the final game of the 2015 regular season at Miami as the Dolphins won 20-10 as a +10 underdog and kept the Patriots from clinching a #1 seed. The previous meeting was on a Thursday night (10/29) at Gillette Stadium and Tom Brady led the Patriots to a 36-7 win. It was the same dynamic in 2014–New England struggled at Miami losing to the Dolphins 33-20 in the opening game of the season. It was all New England in the return match on their home field (12/14) as the Patriots won 41-13. All told, the Dolphins have lost 7 straight games on the Patriots’ home field going 1-6-1 against the spread.
The Dolphins have another disadvantage–its taking them some time to assimilate the offensive schemes of first year head coach Adam Gase. The Miami area media might be getting ahead of themselves by suggesting that the Patriots are ‘vulnerable’. The Dolphins could use a boost–TV ratings and other data are suggesting that interest in the team has waned in South Florida. Much is being made of Rob Gronkowski’s status for this game (he’s listed as questionable) but the Patriots beat a better team than Miami without him on the road last week at Arizona.
Just don’t see a lot of reason to back Miami here. Jimmy Garappolo is capable and it’s not like Pats’ coach Belichick hasn’t been here before. He was able to keep the team competitive with Matt Cassel at quarterback and all he needs to do with Garappolo is make it through four games. New England’s offensive line could use some work but Garappolo has a nice group of receivers to throw to. If Gronk is back in the lineup all the better. Miami is on a 5-14 SU/7-12 ATS run as an underdog. They’re also 1-7 SU/ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6.5 OVER MIAMI DOLPHINS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS:
Tampa Bay got the job done in Atlanta last week and we’ll come right back with them as they take on the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona may have overachieved last year and got a lot of help from a fairly easy schedule. They also caught the good teams on their schedule in advantageous situations. On the other side of the ring it’s going to take some time for the public to assimilate the fact that this Tampa Bay team is already good and will only get better. They’ve been a doormat for so long the team has become synonymous with losing. Their week one matchup helped to keep them ‘off the radar’ of the recreational bettors who looked at the result and assumed that it’s just the declining Falcons. Guess again–this team still has some work to do before they’re a playoff contender but they’re already extremely dangerous.
Since no one has paid attention to the Bucs for years many people don’t realize just how good Jameis Winston already is. It’s hard to believe this is the same guy that was labeled a head case and a criminal element at Florida State. His on-field ability was never in question but what has impressed me is something that he *hasn’t* done. He hasn’t tried to get by on his freaky athletic ability. He’s learning to run a NFL offense and think like a NFL quarterback. That took Cam Newton several years to learn in Carolina and Winston is much more advanced at ‘doing the job’ of a NFL quarterback after one season than all but a handful of rookie quarterbacks. The fact that he’s the last guy that I thought I’d be saying this about makes it even more insane. Equally insane–what were perceived as Winston’s liabilities coming out of college have actually been strengths, at least so far. He’s shown excellent team leadership and has actually been a positive force in the community.
Arizona has a very good pass rush but they won’t have an easy time catching one of the freakiest athletes in the league and–more significantly–a quarterback that is learning to use his athleticism as a weapon, not a crutch. Tampa hasn’t started the season 2-0 since 2010 and they’ve got an excellent shot of doing that here. We’ve also got a decent margin of error should they fall short.
BET TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +7 OVER ARIZONA CARDINALS