NBA Basketball Betting: Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

Maybe someone has enjoyed this series but I sure haven’t. Personally, I can’t recall an NBA Finals series that I have enjoyed less than this one. In any case, on Sunday night at 8:00 PM Eastern the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors will play one game for the NBA Title. Golden State is a -5 home favorite at just about every sportsbook on the planet (with a few -4.5 here and there) and the total set at 207 (with a few 206.5).

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS AT GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS:

This has been a downright tedious series. What I’m about to say might seem strange given that the series is tied 3-3 but it hasn’t been very competitive. Every game been decided by double digits with an eleven point Golden State win in Game Four being the closest contest. The average margin of victory has been a ridiculous 21.3 points per game. In theory, the NBA Finals should be a toe to toe battle between the two best teams in the league. Instead, we’ve watched these teams take turns routing each other. It’s a time when the superstars on both teams are supposed to step up and bring their ‘A Game’. Both LeBron James and Steph Curry have done it during this series though not at the same time. First LeBron was ‘off his game’ and now Curry is off his.

So how to we handicap Game 7? if ‘momentum’ is the key than it’s definitely advantage Cleveland. They’ve made it look easy in the past two games. If ‘pressure’ is a consideration it’ll be advantage Cleveland once again. Golden State had the Cavaliers down 3-1 with a chance to clinch on their home floor. Now they’re going to Game Seven meaning that it’ll be one of the great choke jobs in NBA history should they lose. Teams with a 3-1 lead in an NBA series win the series 96.1% of the time (220-9). Teams up 3-1 with home court advantage win 98.7% of the time (151-2). In the finals, no team with a 3-1 lead has *ever* lost the series. Every professional athlete wants to be remembered after his career. In particular, they want to be remembered for inspired playoff performances. None of them want to go down in history as the answer to a trivia question.

Since it literally is ‘one game for the title’ you might also try to look at it a bit myopically–forget about the rest of the series and just try to analyze this game and not worry about the ‘context’. One situation that where we’ve gone against Cleveland this year is in play here–statistically they’ve been awful coming off a big win. They were 30-13 SU/19-14 ATS and that has something to do with the personality of this team. It’s almost as if LeBron et. al. need some sort of ‘adversity’ or desire for ‘redemption to play their best. That would fit right in with their 8-4 SU record as an underdog this season though worth noting they were 5-7 SU in those games.

As far as the Warriors, they’ve been good this year coming off of a bad loss. In all revenge situations they’re 14-2 SU/12-4 ATS this season and 62-18 SU/49-28 ATS in revenge spots. And like many defensively tenacious teams they take it personally when that defense breaks down. After a loss of 10+ points they’re 6-4 ATS this year and an impressive 21-10 ATS over the last three years. Otherwise with the above reference examples there’s not any particularly good or particularly bad situations of relevance. Bookmakers do their best to avoid those and particularly on hugely popular ‘public’ teams.

The head to head battle is also fairly even. Golden State is 11-7 SU/9-9 ATS in all matchups against Cleveland over the last three seasons. This year they’re 6-3 SU/5-4 ATS but based on what we know about the Cavs’ approach to the game it seems like a good idea to ignore their regular season performance. As far as injuries go the Warriors have the most problematic one–center Andrew Bogut is out for the year. Andre Iguodala has been upgraded to ‘probable’ as has Cleveland guard Kyrie Irving.

Ultimately, the way to win money betting on sports in the longterm is ‘go back to the old school’. Find the value and bet accordingly. Everything about this matchup suggests ‘coin flip’. And in an even matchup the only way to play it is to take the underdog. That’s the best play over the long run. There’s a lot to like about the Cavs based on their recent form and I sure don’t want to lay points with the Warriors.

BET CLEVELAND CAVALIERS +5 OVER GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.