National League Baseball Betting for July 17, 2016
7 games in Sunday’s National League schedule with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Texas Rangers in Interleague play:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
Milwaukee is nothing special but at this point I wouldn’t play on the Reds (with one exception we’ll talk about in a moment) if they were up against Charlie Brown’s baseball team from the ‘Peanuts’ cartoon strip. There’s a number of bad teams in the Majors but not reach the same depths of full on dumpster fire that Cincinnati does. Milwaukee has their issues–plenty of them as a matter of fact. They can’t get on a winning run and they’ve been bad road team going 16-28 (-7.6 units). But even against the Brewers’ class its impossible to justify a play on the Cincinnati Reds.
The only exception when I’ll at least consider betting Cincinnati is when the very talented Anthony Desclafani takes the mound. Desclafani might never become a monster of the Stephen Strasburg variety but he’s the kind of pitcher that you can pencil in for the next 6 or 7 years knowing that when he takes the ball every four days he’s more likely than not going to give you a quality start. He’s only 26 years old and just entering his prime. Of course the Reds being the Reds there has been some talk that he’s on the trade block. It’s starting to sound like the team isn’t going to peddle off Desclafani just to look like they’re ‘doing something’ which would be the first good personnel decision the team has made in ages.
Cincinnati has the worst team ERA in baseball and the worst starting pitcher ERA in baseball. What needs to happen isn’t trying to patch together a rotation through trades or free agency. They need to build a staff. Start with Desclafani and get to work. There might not be an immediate return on investment but that’s part of the process. The team may have to endure a downright brutal season as they rebuild the roster but that’s also part of the process. Besides, how much worse could a Cincinnati team in ‘rebuilding mode’ be than the horrible team they’re putting on the field now? Once you start doing the right things and taking the long view good things can happen very quickly. The Houston Astros, for example, went from losing 111 games in 2013 to making the playoffs in 2015. The Kansas City Royals lost 92 games in 2012 and are now defending World Series champions. They reached the series and lost in 2014.
But I’m a handicapper, not a General Manager. I really don’t have anything invested in the future of the Cincinnati Reds. From a fan’s perspective, however, there’s nothing more excruciating than watching a team thinking that a few ‘fixes’ here and there will have them contending when the roster is actually beyond repair.
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS +110 OVER CINCINNATI REDS
COLORADO ROCKIES AT ATLANTA BRAVES:
The Atlanta Braves are another lousy team with an unclear direction. There’s a lot of upheaval going on in the franchise and has been for the last few years. The legendary John Schuerholz is still ‘officially’ Team President but has greatly reduced his actual role and input. Frank Wren did a decent job after Schuerholz vacated his GM position but he was fired after the 2014 season when the Braves failed to reach the playoffs. It’s starting to look like Wren wasn’t the problem. Fredi Gonzalez got fired as manager earlier this year after six seasons. Managers always take the fall in situations like this and the Braves were 9-29 at the time but the fact that the team was even showing up to the ballpark by this point is a plus for Gonzalez. Atlanta will move out of Turner Field following this season in favor of a nice new stadium in the suburbs. They’ve now got a year or two to rebuild while the new digs are bringing fans to the yard.
Julio Teheran, who is reportedly on the trading block, gets the start here. The Braves have given him no support whatsoever. Teheran’s numbers aren’t Cy Young worthy but they’re decent with a 2.96 ERA and 0.969 WHIP overall, 3.23 ERA and a 1.158 ERA at home. The Braves have given him nothing, losing 14 of his 18 starts including all 10 starts at Turner Field. The Braves have been horrible at home this year which gives us the substantially better pitcher at a decent value price.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES -120 OVER COLORADO ROCKIES