MLB Baseball Betting for June 30, 2016
Short day of baseball for Thursday. Here’s what we like:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
The Dodgers got a preview of what life would be like without Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday. Spoiler alert–it was ugly. The best lefthander in baseball headed back to Los Angeles early to get tests on his ailing back as manager Dave Roberts still ‘holds out hope’ that all is well and he can pitch on Friday. The status of Kershaw could answer a number of questions, not the least of which is the status of rookie pitcher Julio Urias in the rotation. Urias got his first win on Tuesday night even though it wasn’t a great performance. Then again,if Kershaw goes down they might not have any options. The team and media has been kind of unfair to Urias–he’s clearly got potential but is raw. While the trend now is to rookie pitchers entering the Majors as ‘finished projects’ that’s not always the case.
Back in the day, not long after I started betting on baseball the Chicago Cubs called up right hander Kerry Wood amid much fanfare. He wasn’t immediately dominant but the Cubs kept him in the rotation. I saw an opportunity to go against him one day at Wrigley Field against the Houston Astros who were a very good team at the time led by Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Wood was 2-2 with an ERA over 4.00 and even then I tried to go against the Cubs at home every time I could. This game is especially memorable since it was essentially a piece of baseball history. Wood went out and struck out the side in the first inning. He basically *kept* striking out the side for the rest of the game. Every sports bettor knows the sick feeling of being completely on the wrong side of a game. Imagine having the Houston Astros when this was going down:
Now, I’m not saying that Julio Urias is the second coming of Kerry Wood. And we may never see that kind of single game domination again. The important thing is that Urias’s ERA is right around what Woods’ was the day I pulled the trigger on a bet against him. Maybe Urias would be better served spending some more time in the Minor Leagues. That being said, 41 strikeouts in 33 innings pitched suggests that there could be something special here. If Kershaw is out for an extended period time why not give the 19 year old native of Culican Rosales, Mexico a chance to learn on the job? He’s only going to get better and given his ancestry there’s always a chance for a ‘Fernando-mania’ redux.
The loss of Kershaw is a scary proposition for the Dodgers not only because he’s arguably the best left hander in baseball but due to their sparse rotation depth. They’re also overloaded with lefthanders now. Unless they make some kind of move today’s starter, Kenta Maeda is the only dependable righthander in the lineup at the moment. Brandon Stewart was called up from Triple A to make his Major League debut on Wednesday and he got shelled allowing 8 hits and 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work though he did strike out 7. He might end up staying in the bigs out of necessity but much depends on the Kershaw situaton. The mainstream sports media gets a bit hysterical when there’s a potential of a major injury loss like this but given the current makeup of the Dodgers’ rotation it’s hard to see them running down the Giants without him.
At least until there’s some definite word on Kershaw–and that probably won’t happen until the team gets back to L.A.–the team’s mindset will be a concern. Maeda has pitched fairly well this year but his opposition–Zach Davis–has looked sharp in his most recent starts. Sure don’t see a reason to lay the price with a Dodgers’ team that has struggled on the road in the best of circumstances.
BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS +125 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS
CINCINNATI REDS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
We’ve looked for every opportunity possible to go against the Cincinnati Reds this year. In this spot, however, we’ll play *on* them based on valuation alone. It’s not so much a play *on* the Reds as it is a play *against* Washington and more specifically against the deplorable form of lefthander Gio Gonzalez who’ll get the start here. It wasn’t that long ago that Gonzalez was one of the best lefthanders in the game. In 2012, his first year with the Nationals, he was a monster going 21-8 with a 2.85 ERA. He was rewarded with a big contract and he’s regressed every year since.
Here are the ugly numbers. One thing to keep in mind is that his start total has been fairly consistent (32,32,27,31 and 15 YTD). We talked about his beastly performance in 2012 above–as we noted the last time he pitched there are a lot of handicappers that have sworn by the ‘lefthanders changing leagues’ angle for years. In 2013, he was 11-8 with a 3.36 ERA. In 2014, 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA. In 2015, 11-8 with a 3.79 ERA. So far this year, he’s 3-7 with a 4.73 ERA. Making his 2016 struggles all the worse for Gonzalez is that this is his final guaranteed year on his contract. He’s making $12 million per for his wretched performance and he’s very likely screwed himself for the immediate future. He’s got a team option at $12 million per next season and there’s no way the Nationals will exercise that given his performance over the course of his contract. Maybe he knows this and just doesn’t care.
The Reds aren’t especially good against lefthanders but neither is Washington (9-8 -0.4 units) and despite the fact that Cincinnati is 4-12 (and 2-6 on the road) in Finnigan’s starts his numbers aren’t that bad. He’s got a 3.83 ERA overall and a 3.42 ERA on the road. Ultimately, this is a play going against Gonzalez’s horrible form at a big price.
BET CINCINNATI REDS +185 OVER WASHINGTON NATIONALS