MLB Baseball Betting for June 28, 2016
Full card with a big selection of Interleague games:
CHICAGO CUBS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
The Chicago Cubs haven’t been playing particularly well of late. They’ve lost 6 of their last 10 though thanks to the fact that so has the rest of the NL Central (with the exception of Cincinnati–they’ve lost 7 of 10) they’re still maintaining a 9.5 game lead atop the division. This series should help Chicago get their swagger back. They beat up on the Reds in Game One on Monday night 11-8 behind three home runs from Kris Bryant and there’s no reason to think they won’t do the same thing on Tuesday.
It’s a horrible pitching matchup for Cincinnati. Actually, facing Jon Lester the way he’s been throwing this season is a horrible pitching matchup for anyone. Lester is having a phenomenal year and the Cubs have won 11 of his 15 starts. Overall, Lester has a 2.10 ERA but he’s been even better on the road putting up a 1.83 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP. This is really bad news for Cincinnati since they’ve struggled against garden variety lefthanders and they’ll face one of the best in baseball on Tuesday. The Reds are 6-12 -4.8 units against lefthanders this year hitting .238 and averaging 3.6 runs per game. Lester’s teams have never lost against the Reds with a 6-0 record. In the past two seasons, Lester has faced Cincinnati three times including twice this year. The Cubs won all three games with Lester pitching 21 innings allowing 5 earned runs, 13 hits and striking out 18.
The Cubs hit left handed pitching pretty well and they’re 16-7 +3.2 units against southpaws this year. They’ll face John Lamb on Tuesday and he’s been struggling to find anything resembling good form this year. The Reds have lost 7 of his 10 starts including 5 of 6 at home. He’s got a 4.79 ERA overall and a 3.58 home ERA. He’s faced the Cubs only once in his career (10/1/15) but it didn’t go particularly well. Lamb lasted 4 2/3 innings giving up 5 earned runs.
The price on this game is high but it should be given the pitching matchup and the two team’s ability to hit lefthanded pitching. The Cubs win.
BET CHICAGO CUBS -250 OVER CINCINNATI REDS
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
The Los Angeles Dodgers managed a win in Monday’s series finale against the Pirates but there’s no doubt that they’re happy to be through with Pittsburgh for the time being. It’s evident that the Dodgers have a serious issue hitting left handed pitching as they made struggling Jeff Locke look like a Cy Young candidate in Saturday’s game. Nothing is really going right for the Dodgers at the moment. Clayton Kershaw didn’t look sharp at all on Sunday and is reportedly getting back treatment. Struggling Adrian Gonzalez is asking for more time off to get his head right which is a ballsy move for a guy pulling down $21 million this season. Rookie manager Dave Roberts is reportedly ‘staying positive’ despite the maelstrom of chaos around him and that’s good on him since what else can he do? At least they’ve got one problem dealt with as they’ve figured out who’ll start on Wednesday–it’ll be minor league callup Brock Stewart who will become the Dodgers’ 9th starting pitcher this season.
Despite all of the drama the Dodgers are still in decent shape in the NL West. Even with the poor showing in Pittsburgh they’ve won 7 of 10 which has allowed them to not lose any ground to the division leading San Francisco Giants. This series sets up well for Los Angeles as they’ll see nothing but righthanders in Milwaukee and might see only righthanders in their next series against the New York Mets if Steven Matz is forced to miss time with the bone spur in his elbow. The Dodgers definitely know they can hit Milwaukee’s Tuesday starter–it’s right hander Chase Anderson who is coming off a horrible start at Chavez Ravine on June 18. Anderson lasted only 2 1/3 innings as Los Angeles dropped 7 earned runs on him.
As far as the Dodgers, they’ll have their own lefthander on the mound–Julio Urias has been a mixed bag this season but he’s looked decent in his most recent starts allowing 4 earned runs and striking out 21 in 15 1/3 innings of work. Milwaukee does hit lefthanded pitching reasonably well and is 14-10 +6.5 units against southpaws this season but overall the Brewers are nothing special. Their series win over Washington this past weekend says more about the Nationals than it does about Milwaukee.
BET LOS ANGELES DODGERS -135 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS
TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT COLORADO ROCKIES:
The Toronto Blue Jays sure are a frustrating team. They looked to have matters well in hand in Colorado on Monday leading 4-0 through their half of the sixth only to allow the Rockies to score 9 runs in the next two innings en route to a 9-5 loss. Marco Estrada left with a 4-3 lead after six but Drew Storen brought the gas can and matches in the 7th allowing 4 of the 6 runs scored by Colorado in the inning.
Toronto definitely has a favorable pitching matchup here as Colorado starter Eddie Butler has struggled of late–and particularly at home. Colorado has lost three of his four home starts with Butler pitching 19 innings giving up 35 hits and 22 earned runs for a 10.42 ERA. In his last three starts he’s pitched 15 innings allowing 17 earned runs on 26 hits. In the Blue Jays’ corner, they’ll send lefthander J.A. Happ who is quietly having a solid season and has put up a decent 2.63 ERA on the road. The Jays have won his last three games with Happ boasting a 2.84 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 19 innings of work.
That being said, I sure don’t want to lay the price with the Jays even though Happ has had a fair amount of success at Coors Field. The better play looks like the ‘Over 12.5’.
BET TORONTO/COLORADO OVER 12.5