MLB Baseball Betting for June 20, 2016

Short schedule in Major League Baseball for Monday with five games each in the National and American League:

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

It’s obvious that the Atlanta Braves are no longer the worst team in baseball. They’ve gone on a 5 game winning streak and are actually showing signs of life. Nope, the title of the worst team in baseball now belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies lost to the Diamondbacks again on Sunday and they’ve got to play them again tonight. Philadelphia has lost six straight, 9 of their last 10 and are 4-14 -8.6 units in the month of June. They can’t pitch, they can’t hit and they can’t field. Their weekly player performance rundown reads like a horror novel. Manager Pete Mackanin looks completely overwhelmed and clueless about what to do to right the ship. His strategies so far are not working–lineup changes that wouldn’t be effective in a Strat-O-Matic League let alone the majors. He’s also tried the now cliched ‘closed door meeting’. It didn’t move the needle a bit. The best thing the Philadelphia media can say about him is that he’s ‘trying to keep his players’ spirits up’. They’d probably rather have a manager that can help them win some baseball games for a change.

Arizona is now well out of the NL West basement and they’re playing pretty well winning 6 of 10. They need to turn around that dismal home record (13-25, which is even worse than the aforementioned Phillies’ record at home) but they could be back in the main pack of contenders in the division very soon. The problem is that it might not matter since they’re in a division with San Francisco Giants who are playing as well as the Phillies are poorly. It doesn’t really seem like the market has caught up to just how dreadful the Phillies are. This is evidenced by the ‘pick’em’ price on today’s game. Maybe it’s shaded due to the old ‘avoiding the sweep’ angle. The Phillies are a dumpster fire and in a matchup between a dumpster fire and a mediocre baseball team the play is obvious.

BET ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -105 OVER PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

The Pittsburgh Pirates might not be the worst team in baseball but they sure aren’t playing well right now. The Bucs have lost 4 straight, nine of their last ten and are a woeful 4-14 -11.5 units in the month of June. It’s doubtful that things are going to get any better for them in the short term since they’ll open this week playing the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants are currently the hottest team in baseball. They’ve won 8 straight, 9 of 10 and are 11-5 in the month of June. While the rest of the National League West flirts with the ‘Mendoza Line’, the Giants are threatening to run away with the division by the fourth of July. They lead the second place Los Angeles Dodgers by 6.5 games and there’s no other team within double digits of them. The Colorado Rockies are 11 games back, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 12.5 games back and the San Diego Padres are 15.5 games out of the lead.

Not only is the team head to head matchup horrible for the Pirates the pitching matchup might be even worse. Pittsburgh will start Jeff Locke, a usually decent lefthander that has really fallen on hard times this season. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of his 13 starts this season though they do have a 3-2 record in his home games. He’s got an ERA of 5.92 overall and 3.94 at home. He’s really gone into the toilet in his most recent starts. In his last three starts (of which Pittsburgh lost two) he’s got a 12.06 ERA and a 1.978 WHIP. To be fair, that’s based on two back to back bad starts where he pitched a total of 8 2/3 innings and gave up 18 earned runs. Unless he’s Anthony Robbins that sort of form with his team in bad form can’t be good for a player’s confidence.

As if the Giants needed another edge check out their half of the pitching tandem–San Francisco will start Madison Bumgarner and he’s having an excellent season that could be considered Cy Young Award worthy. The Giants have won 11 of his 14 starts this season good for +7.9 units of profit. On the road they’ve won 5 of his 6 assignments as well as his last three. And get a load of these numbers: for the year he’s got a 2.01 ERA and a 2.09 road ERA. In his last three starts he’s got a 1.25 ERA, a 0.738 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings pitched in which he’s allowed 3 earned runs and 12 hits while striking out 24 and walking four. Just the kind of pitcher a struggling team wants to see–one that is averaging giving up only four *hits* per game in his last three starts against your pitcher that gives up more *runs* than that every game.

The price on this game is high–some bettors wouldn’t touch a -185 road favorite on general principle. The disparity in form makes it workable. You’re betting the hottest team in baseball against one of the coldest. Giants have excelled in the role of a big road favorite in recent years–over the last three seasons they’re a perfect 8-0 in this role. The Pirates are just unbettable right now.

BET SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -185 OVER PITTSBURGH PIRATES

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.