MLB Baseball Betting for July 7, 2016
Short card of Thursday action as Major League Baseball heads into their final series before the All Star Break:
PITTSBURGH PIRATES AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS:
Two teams heading in opposite directions face off at Busch Stadium on Thursday as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cardinals have been shadowing the Chicago Cubs all season but now they’ve hit the skids and now they may have also lost Matt Carpenter. The second baseman left the game with a right oblique injury after trying to check his swing in the third inning. His status remains uncertain but oblique injuries have the potential to be nasty.
The Cardinals have lost their grip on second place for the first time in months. They’ve lost 6 of 10 and 3 straight. They’ve been passed up by the Pittsburgh Pirates and that’s shocking to anyone who saw them play a month or so ago when they were one of the most miserable teams in baseball. That’s changed dramatically–the Pirates have won 7 straight and 8 of 10 and have cut the Chicago Cubs’ lead in the NL Central to 8.5 games.
So why are the Cards a -160 favorite here? That’s today’s handicapping lesson–the public catches on very slowly when it comes to teams that they’ve ‘tuned out’ months ago. The Pirates were left for dead a couple of months ago. The recreational bettor picks up the paper and just assumes that the Pirates are the same moribund bunch they were then. It sure isn’t their ‘home field advantage–St. Louis is 18-26 at home for a whopping -16.7 unit loss. That’s a bad record but the real reason for this massive loss to bettors is a very simple and salient fact–the Cardinals are an overrated team and particularly at home. That’s why we’re on the Pirates here.
BET PITTSBURGH PIRATES +150 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT NEW YORK METS:
The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are in a heated battle for the top of the NL East and they’ll end the first half of the MLB season with a four game series at CitiField. The Nationals are currently in first place with a 4 game lead over the second place Mets. Washington has won 7 of 10 while the Mets have won 6 of 10.
The Nationals will start rookie right hander Lucas Giolito and he’s by all accounts a beast. Or at least a ‘beast in the making’. He pitched only 4 innings in his Major League debut due to some weather issues but he allowed only 1 hit and 0 earned runs while walking 2 and striking out 1. He’ll face veteran right hander Bartolo Colon who is in excellent form this year. The Mets have won 10 of Colon’s 16 starts including 5 of 8 at home. He’s got a 2.91 ERA overall and a 2.68 ERA at home.
The Nationals have made mincemeat of the Mets over the past few seasons and have a solid record against them this year. The Nationals have won 6 of 9 this year including 2 of 3 at CitiField. The Nationals have won 16 of the last 23 head to head in New York and they should do it again here.
BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS -105 OVER NEW YORK METS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT COLORADO ROCKIES:
The Philadelphia Phillies have been playing well of late winning four straight and eight of their last ten and 9 of 12.. You couldn’t tell that from the line on this game which suggests that the Colorado Rockies are an overwhelmingly superior team.
Philadelphia has made a nice profit on the road this season (19-23 +5 units) while the Rockies have been a disappointment at home. For some reason, recreational players are still imbued of the ntoion that they’re a dominant home team. That’s no longer the case. The Rockies are 18-20 -6.5 units this year and are 99-101 -10 units over the past three seasons.
Colorado has lost 7 of 10 and 7 of their last 8. We’ll take the team in better form as a sizable underdog.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +150 OVER COLORADO ROCKIES
DETROIT TIGERS AT TORONTO BLUE JAYS:
The Tigers are an erratic team but their biggest problem in this matchup is the 2016 struggles of former ‘ace’ Justin Verlander. Verlander is nowhere near his usual form–the Tigers have won 10 of Verlander’s 17 starts as well as 5 of 8 on the road. Verlander’s ERA is a substandard 4.11 overall (1.102 WHIP) with a 4.08 road ERA (1.038 WHIP). The Tigers have won 2 of his last 3 starts but Verlander has a 5.30 ERA. That ERA is due primarily to a horrible start on 6/26 against Cleveland where Verlander lasted only 4 2/3 innings allowing 8 ER on 9 hits and 4 HR.
For the Blue Jays, they’ll give a spot start to righthander Drew Hutchison who typically works out of the pen. Hutchison has started only one other game this year (April 24). He pitched well in his only other starting assignment of the year going 5 2/3 innings allowing 2 earned runs in a 6-3 Jays win over Oakland. Jays in excellent form at the moment and we’ll back the home team.
BET TORONTO BLUE JAYS -110 OVER DETROIT TIGERS