MLB Baseball Betting for August 8, 2016
Short card in Monday baseball with nine games on the board. At least we know that they’ll be played and won’t be cancelled due to ‘field conditions’. That’s what happened in the NFL Hall of Fame game and it’s got to be one of the biggest ‘fails’ in sports history. Not by the NFL (though they should have had more oversight over the groundskeeping)they did the right thing–but by the stadium grounds crew. THEY HAVE ONE JOB TO DO! That’s to keep the field in suitable shape to play one NFL game per year. Hopefully all of them are now unemployed.
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 8, 2016:
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT MIAMI MARLINS:
Speaking of having ‘ONE JOB TO DO!’ let’s talk about the San Francisco Giants. They got a MONSTER game from Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. 8 innings, 2 hits, 1 ER, 7 K’s and 2 walks. And they couldn’t even scratch out a couple of runs to win the game despite Bumgarner pitching his ass off. The Giants have somehow lost Bumgarner’s last five starts and he’s been dominant in three of those with a pair of complete games during that stretch. If I were to wake up tomorrow and read that Bumgarner had gone loco in the locker room with a bat and starting randomly assaulting teammates I’d consider him justified.
The Giants need to win baseball games. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t been playing especially well (5-5 L10) but they’ve still narrowed the Giants’ lead atop the NL East down to a single game heading into Monday’s action. The good news for the Giants is that they’re playing the Miami Marlins, another team not in good form and one who may be running out of time to mount a challenge to the division leading Washington Nationals. The Marlins have lost 6 of 10 but for some reason are -150 here despite a pitching matchup that at worst is a toss up and at best is advantage: SF.
The Giants will start right hander Johnny Cueto who is very quietly having a Cy Young-esque year. Most importantly for the Giants’ he’s insanely dependable. Every few days they hand the ball to Cueto, he goes out and pitches well and the majority of the time the Giants win. San Francisco is 17-5 in Cueto’s 22 starts this season including 10-2 on the road. They’re 1-2 in his last three starts but Cueto has pitched well. Cueto has a 2.73 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP on the season with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.117 WHIP on the road.
He’ll be opposed by Jose Fernandez who is also having a solid year. Miami is 14-7 when Fernandez starts including 9-3 at home. Overall, he’s got a 2.87 ERA and a 1.078 WHIP with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.965 WHIP at home. His last three starts–two of which were also at home–haven’t been quite so good. The Marlins have lost two of his last three starts with Fernandez turning in a 5.00 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP in those games.
No way that the Marlins–even with Fernandez–should be -150 favorites over a decent (if bumbling) Giants team with Cueto on the mound and having a monster year.
BET SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +140 OVER MIAMI MARLINS
ATLANTA BRAVES AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
Here’s some breaking news for you: the Atlanta Braves are an awful baseball team. But they’ve been ‘less awful’ lately. They’ve won 6 of 10 and 8 of 12 and have been very profitable away from home where they’re 23-31 +9.5 units. They’ll try to make some ‘mo money‘ on Monday when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The Braves really don’t have much to play for as a team this season. They’re even a long shot to get out of last place in their own division–they’re 10 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies for fourth place in the NL East and 25 games behind first place Washington. They do have an opportunity to *not* finish with the worst record in baseball. The Braves have 41 wins on the season. Cincinnati has 45 but have also been playing better. Arizona has just 45 wins but have been awful. The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays also have 45 wins. If they Braves can play decent ball down the stretch and one of these teams hit a losing streak they’ve got a realistic shot to not be the worst team in baseball. After their miserable start to the year that would be a moral victory. It’s also worth remembering that Atlanta is moving out to Cobb County and their new SunTrust Park home stadium for next season. A credible effort down the stretch could help season ticket sales and keep that new venue full.
The Brewers have been playing decent ball as well winning 6 of 10. They’ve got some pressure from below in the form of the Cincinnati Reds who are now just 4.5 games back. They’re also just 6 games back of the fading Pittsburgh Pirates but they’re 19.5 back of the all of a sudden red hot Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central. The Brewers have played well at home and struggled on the road. At Miller Park, they’re 30-25 +7.6 units. Unlike the Braves who are right around ‘break even’ against right handed pitching (29-43 +0.4 units) the Brewers have been awful against RHP. Milwaukee is 27-46 -16.2 units against right handers.
That should be good news for the Braves’ starter here, right hander Rob Whalen. This will be his second start of the year after a poor outing against Pittsburgh on August 3. Whalen went 5 innings allowing 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 HR while striking out 5 and allowing 4 walks. But unlike the aforementioned Mr. Bumgarner he got some help from his offense and the Braves won 8-4 with Whalen getting the win. He’ll be opposed by right hander Zach Davies who has been very solid this season and particularly in his most recent games. The Brewers are 11-8 in Davies’ 19 starts overall including 8-4 at home and 3-0 in his last three assignments. Davies has a 3.57 ERA for the year with a 1.189 WHIP, a 3.50 ERA and 1.083 WHIP at home and a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts.
Davies might be the better of the two starting pitchers but that’s not how you handicap baseball. It’s all pricing and valuation and the ‘net net’ is that these teams are more evenly matched than the bloated -165 price tag on the Brewers would suggest.
BET ATLANTA BRAVES +150 OVER MILWAUKEE BREWERS