MLB Baseball Betting for August 5, 2016
Busy day of baseball for Friday with all 30 teams in action:
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FOR AUGUST 5, 2016:
CINCINNATI REDS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES:
It might not be front page news but the Cincinnati Reds are in good form. They’re 13-6 since the All Star Break and while they’re still stuck in last place they’re not an automatic ‘go against’ any more. On Thursday, they walloped the St. Louis Cardinals 7-0 to take the three game series 2-1. They don’t look like much based on their full year statistics but they’re just a different team over the past few weeks.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, meanwhile, are a mess. Their offense is sputtering and manager Clint Hurdle has benched former MVP Andrew McCutchen who is in a season long slump. As the Bucs continue to struggle and the Chicago Cubs are starting to regain their winning form it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Pirates get back into contention. They’re now 12 games back of the Cubs and 3.5 games back of the second place St. Louis Cardinals.
Much depends on how their revamped pitching staff fares over the next few weeks. On Friday, highly touted prospect Jameson Taillon makes his 9th start of the season and he’s been hit or miss but has shown flashes of excellence. He’s coming off a very good start in which he was victimized by his struggling teammates–Taillon went 6 innings allowing 2 runs on 6 hits with 6 strikeouts and 0 walks. Unfortunately, he took the loss as the Pirates dropped a 5-3 verdict at Milwaukee. Overall, he’s got a 3.72 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP, a 4.91 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP at home and a 3.50 ERA and a 1.056 WHIP in his last 3 games.
The Reds will start Anthony Desclafani who has been solid since rejoining the rotation after an early year stint on the disabled list. The Reds have won 7 of his 10 starts this season including 2 of 3. Desclafani has a 2.93 ERA overall with a 1.223 WHIP, a 3.78 ERA with a 1.350 WHIP on the road and a 3.70 ERA with a 1.158 WHIP in his last three starts. The Reds and Pirates have split eight games this season. Just hard to play on Pittsburgh in their current form and no reason to to play on the Reds with their recent resurgence.
BET CINCINNATI REDS +135 OVER PITTSBURGH PIRATES
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS:
The San Francisco Giants have been in awful form of late but somehow they’ve managed to hang on to the lead in the NL West. The Giants have dropped 13 of their last 21 games which is actually better form than they were in just a couple of weeks ago. Despite their struggles, they’re still 2.5 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers and 7.5 games up on the red hot Colorado Rockies (pending the outcome of Thursday night action). Washington has won six of ten and is starting to open up some distance on their closest rivals leading the Miami Marlins by 7 games and the New York Mets by 8.5 games. These teams have played four times this season, each winning two games just a week ago in San Francisco.
The Nationals had been going with a five man rotation but will reset to a four man rotation this weekend which means that left hander Gio Gonzalez will get the start here. Gonzalez had been struggling through an awful season but has been in solid form in his most recent starts–though a lack of run support had the Nationals winning only one of his last three starts. For the year, Gonzalez has a 4.29 ERA and a 1.356 WHIP with Washington losing 13 of his 21 starts. They’ve split his 10 home starts with Gonzalez contributing a 4.24 ERA AND A 1.413 WHIP. In his last three starts he’s pitched very well–18 1/3 innings allowing 4 earned runs, 14 hits and striking out 11 against 6 walks. That’s a 1.96 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP in his last three.
San Francisco will counter with struggling right hander Jeff Samardzija who has been marginal this year and in very poor form in his most recent starts. For the year, the Giants have won 11 of his 21 starts with a 6-7 record in his road starts. He’s got a 4.30 ERA overall with a 1.239 WHIP and a road ERA of 4.43 with a 1.188 WHIP. His last three starts–all Giants losses have him allowing 13 earned runs and 20 hits in 16 2/3 innings of work for a 7.02 ERA and a 1.620 WHIP.
The Giants have good stats against LHP this season (25-13 +12.8 units) but their runs per game average against southpaws (4.6 runs per game) is virtually identical to their overall ERA (4.5 runs per game) or their road ERA (4.7 runs per game). Plus they’re going through a stretch where nothing seems to be working including their offense–last 7 games has the Giants averaging 3.4 runs per game hitting .233.
Washington has had considerable success against right handed pitching though their price valuations have been such that they don’t have much of a profit to show for it. Washington is 50-33 against right handed starters but just +1.9 units of profit. Like the Giants, their run per game output is similar in all situations (4.8 overall, 4.5 home, 4.7 against RHP). What is drastically different is their recent offensive form–in their past seven games the Nationals are averaging 6.3 runs per game and hitting .301.
Gonzalez lost a tough luck decision to San Francisco in his last outing but it wasn’t his fault–he went 6 innings allowing 6 hits and 1 earned run. Samardzija allowed 4 ER and 7 hits in his last start–against the Nationals two days earlier. Given the relative form of the two teams–as well as the starting pitchers–Washington sure looks like a value at this price.
BET WASHINGTON NATIONALS -140 OVER SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS