MLB Baseball Betting for August 3, 2016

The smoke is starting to clear from the trade deadline and baseball is returning to a state of semi-normalcy. Full card of 15 games for Wednesday:



Washington and Arizona play the final game of a three game early week series. The Nationals throttled the Diamondbacks on Monday night and were leading 7-3 in the top of the 7th in Tuesday’s game. Pending that outcome the Nationals are in first place in the National League East holding a 5.5 game lead over the Miami Marlins and a 7 game lead over the third place New York Mets.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have the second worst record in the National League if they lose Tuesday’s game. They might not have the worst record but they very well might be the worst team in baseball at the moment. They’re a complete dumpster fire. Arizona is 43-63 on the year 18 games out of first place and 3 games back of the second place San Diego Padres (pending the outcome of Tuesday action). The most pitiful thing about the Diamondbacks is their play at home. They’re just 1 game under .500 and have made a small profit on the road. At home, they’re 17-36 -25.2 units. They’re one of only two teams in baseball that have won fewer than 20 games at home–the Atlanta Braves (16-39 at Turner Field) are the other.

The Diamondbacks have also been horrible against right handed pitching (29-48 -17.2 units) and they’re facing one of the best in the business here. Max Scherzer struggled somewhat earlier in the season but he’s been in great form of late. For the year, Scherzer has a 2.85 ERA and a 2.92 road ERA. In his last three games, Scherzer has a 1.71 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP. Arizona will send right hander Zack Godley who hasn’t been especially impressive–in five starts he’s got a 5.53 ERA and a 5.06 ERA at home.

Arizona is awful against right handed pitching and there’s no reason to think they’ll have an easy time against Scherzer in his current form.



The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have much going for them this year but the play of rookie pitcher Junior Guerra has been an exception. Guerra has been the most consistently solid member of the Brewers’ rotation this year. The Brewers are 11-5 in Guerra’s 16 starts and 6-1 in his road starts. That’s pretty significant for a team that is 17-32 -10.5 units away from home. Guerra has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.045 WHIP overall with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.031 WHIP on the road. He’s been very sharp in his last three starts with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.952 WHIP though the Brewers managed to lose two of those three games.

Edwin Jackson will get the start for San Diego and he’s been a mixed bag since he’s been back in the Majors. He took a no hitter into the 7th inning in his first start of the year before settling for a 1 hit 2 ER victory over San Francisco. Even that game was uneven–he walked 5 and gave up a home run. In his second start he allowed only 2 ER in 6 innings and didn’t factor in the decision as the Padres lost to Washington. He’s off a rough start, allowing 6 ER and 10 hits in 5 innings as the Padres lost to the red hot Cincinnati Reds.

The knee jerk reaction is to lay the price with the Brewers and Guerra but note again that the team somehow managed to lose two of his last three starts in which he pitched very well. The Padres have scrapped out a small profit at home (25-27 +4.6 units) and Milwaukee is just unbettable on the road (17-32 -10.5 units).



The San Francisco Giants need wins and they need them badly. Their lead in the NL West is down to 1.5 games though they’re getting some help from the Colorado Rockies who are routing the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night. The Dodgers will be 2 games back after this apparent loss but the Rockies will continue to climb up the standings–they’ve won 8 of 10 and could become the third team in the NL West mix if their form continues. A trip to Philadelphia would seem to be a good cure for the Giants’ woes but it hasn’t started out that way–the Phillies roughed up Madison Bumgarner in the first game of this three game series on Tuesday. The Giants’ offense bailed him out and tied the game at 8-8 before the Phillies scored 5 in the bottom of the 8th to break the game wide open. The Giants have now lost 6 of 10 which is actually a marginal improvement to their play of the past few weeks.

That being said, this game sets up well for them. San Francisco will start former Cincinnati Reds right hander Johnny Cueto who has been solid and consistent this season. He’s also been able to get ‘W’s’ for the team–and they need one now. San Francisco is 17-4 in Cueto’s 21 starts this year including 10-1 on the road. He’s put up a 2.63 ERA overall and a 2.62 ERA on the road. The team dropped 2 of his last 3 starts though he didn’t pitch badly–he allowed more than 3 earned runs only once in that stretch.

Philadelphia will counter with struggling right hander Aaron Nola. The Phillies still like him as a prospect but his work this year has been pretty shoddy. Philadelphia has an 8-12 record in Nola’s 20 starts including a 2-7 mark at home. Nola has a 4.95 ERA overall, a 4.67 ERA at home and a 5.40 ERA in his last three games. The Phillies biggest problem, however, are their anemic bats (Tuesday’s result notwithstanding). Philadelphia has averaged 2.9 and hit .219 at home this year and only .237 averaging 3.7 runs per game against right handers. Nothing will come easy for them against Cueto while the Giants should be able to hit Nola with relative ease.


About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.