MLB Baseball Betting for August 2, 2016

The dust is still settling from all of the activity at the trade deadline on Monday. Meanwhile, a full card of baseball action with 15 games for Tuesday.


–The New York Yankees trade Carlos Beltran to Texas for prospects

–The Tampa Bay Rays send left handed pitcher Matt Moore to San Francisco for prospects

–Toronto sent pitcher Drew Hutchinson to Pittsburgh for pitcher Francisco Liriano and prospects. The plan is to insert Liriano into the rotation and transition Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen.

–Toronto sent relief pitcher Jesse Chavez to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Mike Bolsinger

–Toronto sent minor leaguer Lupe Chavez to the Houston Astros for right hander Scott Feldman

–Milwaukee was finally able to trade catcher Jonathan Lucroy, sending him and relief pitcher Jeremy Jeffress to the Texas Rangers in exchange for outfielder Lewis Brinson, right-hander Luis Ortiz and a player to be named later

–Cincinnati shipped outfielder Jay Bruce to the New York Mets for prospects

–The Los Angeles Dodgers were unable to trade Yasiel Puig. He did not accompany the team on their current road trip and will most likely be sent down to the minors



The Miami Marlins are 4.5 games back of the Washington Nationals (pending the outcome of Monday’s late action) and they’re facing a Chicago Cubs team that all of a sudden looks to be on the verge of another excellent run. The Cubs have now won 5 of 6 games after taking a 5-0 victory in Monday’s series opener. Chicago got another great outing from right hander Kyle Hendricks who definitely isn’t the ‘biggest name’ in their rotation but has been the most consistent starter over the past six to eight weeks. Chicago realizes what a valuable commodity Hendricks is at this point and will be going to a six man rotation for the time being at least hoping to keep him fresh for the stretch run. The Cubs also have a revamped bullpen adding right hander Joe Smith to their earlier acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.

For Tuesday’s game, the Cubs will give the ball to right hander Jason Hammel who has been solid all season and in excellent form of late. Chicago has won 12 of Hammel’s 20 starts this season including 7 of 9 at Wrigley Field and his last three starts. Hammel has an overall ERA of 3.23 with a 1.102 WHIP, a home ERA of 2.50 and 1.053 WHIP and a L3 ERA of 2.00 with a ERA of 0.944. He’s allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 18 innings of work, striking out 18 while allowing just 5 walks. That’s bad news for a Marlins team that has lost money against right handers to the tune of 40-42 -9.2 units.

Miami will counter with right hander Jose Fernandez who has decent numbers overall but has struggled of late. Miami has won 14 of his 20 starts this season including 5 of 8 on the road and 2 of his last three. Fernandez has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.050 WHIP overall with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP on the road. In his last three starts, Fernandez has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.255 WHIP. Chicago has managed to lose -8.4 units against RHP this year but that’s more a function of the insane valuations that they were getting for awhile than an indictment of their play. The Cubs are hitting .258 against RHP which is better than their overall numbers. They’re averaging 5.2 runs per game and are 41-29 against right handers.

The Cubs have won 5 of their last 7 games against Miami at Wrigley Field and given their solid numbers against RHP and Hammel’s good form they should get the job done here.



Pro wrestling fans are familiar with the concept of the ‘squash match‘. The ‘squash match’ was the bread and butter of pro wrestling shows in the 1970’s, with one dominant wrestler beating up on his opponent in a one sided contest. In the current Major League Baseball scene, any game against Arizona is usually a ‘squash match’ for their opponents. The Diamondbacks have lost 15 of their last 21 games and are at the bottom of the NL West. They currently have the third worst record in the National League but it’s only a matter of time until the current #2 worst record team–Cincinnati–moves past them. The Reds have been playing well lately winning 7 of 10. They’re probably not going to fall into last place–the Atlanta Braves look to have that sewn up–but they’re an absolute dumpster fire right now.

That’s good news for the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are still in first place in the NL East but they’ve seen their lead cut to 5 games ahead of the Miami Marlins and 7 games ahead of the New York Mets. The Diamondbacks’ home record is abysmal. They’re 17-36 -25.2 units at home and 29-48 -17.2 units against right handed pitchers. And the Nationals have three good ones to throw at them during this series. The faced Stephen Strasburg last night, they’ll face Max Scherzer on Wednesday and they get Tanner Roark here. Roark might not be a Cy Young candidate but he’s been very solid and that’ll be enough to dominate the hapless Diamondbacks. Washington has won 12 of Roark’s 21 starts including 6 of 10 on the road and 2 of his last 3. He’s got a 3.01 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP overall, a 3.27 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP on the road and a 2.70 ERA and a 0.950 WHIP in his last three starts.

He’ll be countered by lefthander Robbie Ray who has been somewhere between bad and mediocre this year. The Diamondbacks have lost 15 of his 21 starts this season including 6 of 10 at home and 2 of his last 3. Ray has a 4.62 ERA overall, a 5.01 home ERA and a 4.07 ERA in his last three games. The Nationals have lost a small amount against left ahnders but they actually hit them pretty well–they average 4.8 runs per game and a .261 batting average against southpaws which is better than their overall numbers and their road numbers. The Nationals have won 11 of 15 head to head in this series including 5 of the last 7 in the desert.


About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.