MLB Baseball Betting for August 16, 2016
After a short card on Monday we’re back to a full card of baseball for Tuesday:
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 16, 2016:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
I won’t go so far as to say that the Philadelphia Phillies are *contenders* now but they’re on the verge of ‘being in the mix’. It may not matter since the Washington Nationals are starting to open up a big margin over the rest of the teams in the NL East. More about that in a moment–back to the Phillies: Philadelphia is 4 games behind the third place New York Mets and 6.5 games behind the second place Miami Marlins. It’s very realistic that Philadelphia could join this pack but running down the first place Nationals is a different matter. Washington has won 3 straight and 7 of 10 and lead the second place Marlins by 8.5 games, the third place Mets by 11.5 and the fourth place Phillies by 15 games. The wild card might be a more realistic goal–Philadelphia is just 6.5 games out of the second wild card spot and 10 games out of the top spot. They’ve got plenty of company with seven teams vying for the two spots but at least they’ve got a shot.
The more realistic goal for Philadelphia is to finish over .500. Considering that they were the biggest dumpster fire in baseball for awhile earlier this season losing 26 of 32 from late May to late June that would be an impressive accomplishment. It would also be quite a feather in the cap of manager Pete Mackanin who looked downright lost during the team’s downturn. During the ‘June swoon’ I thought there was no way that Mackanin would return next season but if he could manage Philadelphia to their first winning record since 2011 it would be a different matter. At any rate, they’ll almost certainly finish with a better record than they had in 2015. Heading in to Tuesday’s action the Phillies are 56-63 or 7 games under .500.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are also ‘on the hunt’. They’re now 1/2 game back of the San Francisco Giants atop the NL West. Colorado is fading badly (2-8 L10) and now a full ten games back of Los Angeles so they don’t have to worry much about their rear view mirror. The Giants have been awful over the past couple of months but somehow they’ve managed to stay ahead of the Dodgers. If LA can string together some wins, however, they can take control of the division and put the Giants under pressure.
The Dodgers injury list looks like a hospital ward and particularly the pitching staff. There are 18 Dodgers on the injury list in some fashion as of Monday night and 14 are pitchers. Brett Anderson is listed as ‘questionable’ for his next start with a wrist ailment (or that’s the excuse they’re giving after his miserable start on Sunday). The other 13 pitchers on the injury list are out at least 15 days most significantly ace Clayton Kershaw. The good news is that Kershaw is starting to throw…well, he’s starting to ‘play catch’ but the Dodgers are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to the lineup by mid-September. Credit to the Dodgers–they’re dealing with the pitching situation as well as possible.
Los Angeles will start right hander Kenta Maeda who (surprise, surprise) has also spent time on the DL this season. When he’s been able to pitch he’s been solid and consistent. He’s not going to overpower or dominate anyone but he’s getting the job done and the Dodgers have been able to win when he takes the ball. L.A. has won 14 of his 23 starts including 8 of 11 on the road. They’ve also won his last 3 starts. Overall Maeda has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.087 WHIP, on the road he’s got a 3.28 ERA and a 0.978 WHIP. In his last three starts he’s got a 3.71 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP. He’s also got 14 strikeouts to just 2 walks in that stretch.
Philadelphia will send right hander Vincent Velasquez to the mound. The right hander is coming off a horrible beating at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers in his previous start. Philadelphia is 10-10 in Velasquez’s starts this season with a 5-4 record at Citizens Bank Park. They’re 0-3 in his last three starts though Velasquez pitched well in two of those games. He lost a pair of 1 run decisions at Atlanta on 7/29 and against San Francisco on 8/4 despite allowing just 4 ER in 11 innings of work. He no doubt would like to forget about his last start on 8/11 at Chavez Ravine. In that game Velasquez went 4 2/3 innings giving up 11 hits, 9 ER and 3 home runs as the Dodgers routed the Phillies 9-3.
Despite the beating he absorbed in his last start we’re going to go with Philadelphia here. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 12 the Dodgers are nothing special on the road. Hard to see the logic in laying a -160 chalk price with a team that is 27-28 -4.7 units away from home. The Phillies have scratched out a small profit in most situations and are +8.4 units overall. That’s also remarkable after their 6-26 run and we just can’t lay such a big price (-160) with the Dodgers against a team playing solid, competitive baseball.
BET PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +150 OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS