Major League Baseball Betting for September 4, 2016
This Sunday is the ‘calm before the storm’ and likely the last where we’ll be able to focus exclusively on Major League Baseball. Next Saturday will bring a full slate of college football action while Sunday will bring the start of the NFL regular season.
MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 3, 2016:
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT CINCINNATI REDS:
The St. Louis Cardinals are in a strange position. They’re in second place in their division which is good. The bad news, however, is that there’s no way they’re going to catch the first place team as the Chicago Cubs have a 16.5 game lead. They’re currently in the final NL Wild Card berth but they aren’t playing particularly well losing three straight and 6 of 10. A bigger problem is they’ve got plenty of competition with four teams behind them within 5 games–the New York Mets (1 game back), the Pittsburgh Pirates (2.5 games back), the Miami Marlins (3 games back) and the Colorado Rockies (5 games back). There’s some good news here, however, as the Mets are the only team playing well at the moment. New York has lost 7 of 10 but none of the other teams have a winning record over their last 10 games. In fact, the Miami Marlins are in danger of playing themselves out of contention if they maintain their current form having lost 8 of their last 10 games.
The Cincinnati Reds are a team no one can figure out. They were one of the biggest disasters in baseball at the start of the year. They started playing really well after the All Star Break. They recently hit another slump but have started playing well again of late and are on the verge of sweeping the Cards in this series. They’re getting great play from centerfielder Billy Hamilton who has excelled both in the field and at the plate. He looks like a future superstar. It’s also made for a strange dynamic for their fans. The Reds have been officially eliminated from the playoffs but are showing a ton of promise for the future.
St. Louis will definitely be glad to get out of town. After losing the opening game of this series 3-2 on Friday night the Cards were pummeled 9-1 on Saturday. This is a spot where the kneejerk reaction is to bet the Cards to ‘avoid the sweep’–and particularly with their best pitcher, Carlos Martinez, on the mound. We’re going to go the other way. Reds’ starter Tim Adelman has put up decent numbers in limited action (3.82 ERA in 7 starts) and we just don’t like the vibe from the Cards right now. Would much rather take the hard trying Reds at a decent underdog price.
BET CINCINNATI REDS +150 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT TAMPA BAY RAYS:
In most cases we’d rather bet *against* the old ‘avoiding the sweep’ concept but in this game the value looks to be to go along with it. This is the second time that Toronto has lost focus when they were in first place. They did it just a week or so ago as they dropped 2 of 3 at the Rogers Centre to the lowly LA Angels (who have, in fairness, been playing well of late). Now they’ve done it again, this time on the road in Tampa Bay. With the Boston Red Sox up big at Oakland late in their game against the A’s it looks almost certain that there will be a tie atop the AL East at the close of action tonight. Baltimore will be just 2 games behind and even the New York Yankees are still in the mix just 6.5 games back.
The Rays will start right hander Chris Archer who has pitched very wall at home this year but has little to show for it. Actually, he does have something to show for it but not anything good–he might be the first pitcher in over a decade to have 20 losses in a season (he’s 8-17). Overall, he’s got a 4.10 ERA with a 1.266 WHIP. At home, he’s got a 2.61 ERA with a 1.115 WHIP. Now the bad news–the Rays managed to lose 10 of his 14 home starts and 19 of 28 overall despite those numbers. He’s been excellent in his most recent outings with a L3 ERA of 1.86 and a 0.931 WHIP. Tampa Bay *did* find a way to win two of those three games.
Toronto will go with left hander J.A. Happ who has lost 2 straight after winning 10 straight decisions and Toronto winning 11 straight starts. Happ is currently #4 in the AL Cy Young race but his stats aren’t that great. The bottom line, however, is that when he takes the ball the Blue Jays usually win. Toronto has won 19 of Happ’s 26 starts this year including 8 of 13 on the road.
Archer’s recent form gives us a nice reasonable price on Toronto who has dominated left handers this season averaging 5.1 runs per game and with a record of 56-40. The Jays can’t afford to go into an extended downturn here–they’ve got a crucial week coming up with three games at Yankee Stadium against New York followed by a weekend series at home against the Boston Red Sox.
BET TORONTO BLUE JAYS -105 OVER TAMPA BAY RAYS