Interleague Baseball Betting for July 15, 2016
Back to work in Major League Baseball with a full slate of games in both the American League and National League. In this writeup, however, we’ll cover the one Interleague game on the board as it’s one of the most intriguing contests of the day:
AMERICAN LEAGUE BASEBALL BETTING FOR JULY 15, 2016:
TEXAS RANGERS AT CHICAGO CUBS (Interleague):
It’s hard to know where to start when talking about–let alone handicapping–the Chicago Cubs. It’s apparent now that they may not be the second coming of the 1927 Yankees which many people claimed as they got off to a torrid start this season. They’re obviously a very good team but how good? They absolutely bumbled into the All Star Break ending the first half of the season on a 6-15 run losing 8 of their last 10 games. The good news is that if manager Joe Maddon plays his cards right everything will be fine. Even with that miserable 6-15 run Chicago still has a 7 game lead over the second place St. Louis Cardinals and a 7.5 game lead over the third place Pittsburgh Pirates. The other two teams in the division are either a non factor (Milwaukee) or a dumpster fire (Cincinnati).
It’s no secret that the betting public absolutely loves the Chicago Cubs. That’s nothing new–‘squares’ loved to bet the Cubs even when they weren’t any good. Now that they are they’re even more of a ‘public’ team. For this reason alone no real surprise that the Cubs are still the MLB futures betting favorite to win the World Series. They definitely have a shot but there’s a lot that needs to be fixed between now and then. Right now the party line is that the Cubs were ‘recharged’ by the All Star Break and maybe that’s the case. Manager Maddon is keeping his cool as is his style. He’s more of a Phil Jackson type than any other recent vintage baseball manager.
Of course for our purposes we don’t need to figure out if the Cubs will win the World Series or even if they’ll make the playoffs. We just have to worry about this game and the first thing that is evident is the price. The Cubs are a -200 favorite. Hardly the biggest price they’ve been assessed this season but let’s turn our attention to their opponent. The Texas Rangers are 54-36 which is the best record in the American League and one game better than the Cubs. Even so, they might be the most underappreciated division leader in baseball. I’m sure that’s not a big deal to them but it does help to explain why they’re such an underrated foe here. They weren’t in good form heading into the All Star Break losing 7 of 10 but then again neither were the Cubs as they lost 8 of 10.
Perhaps the most compelling storyline of the second half of the Major League Baseball season will be the Chicago Cubs. More specifically, it will be which Cubs team will show up–the one that started the season going 26-5 or the one that finished the first half of the season with a 6-15 run? In their final 10 games before the All Star Break the Cubs bumbled to a 2-8 mark but in the eyes of the public and bookmakers they’re still the team to beat. The Texas Rangers might be the lowest profile divisional leader in all of baseball. They’re 54-36 on the year and have a 5.5 lead atop the AL West but they’re not exactly on the mind of the general public. The did enter the All Star Break on a 3-7 run but that’s not any worse than the Cubs mid season swoon.
So we’ve got two good teams with similar records in similar form. Thanks to the All Star Break we can assume that all of the scheduling things we usually look at–pitcher and bullpen fatigue, for example–is as good as it’s going to get. Every team had the same number of ‘off days’. To properly handicap this game we need to figure out just *why* the Cubs are a -200 favorite in what sure looks like an evenly matched ‘coin flip’ type game. In my view, this is entirely a case of ‘public perception’ and the betting marketplace’s never ending love affair with the Cubbies. This is why they continued to lose money at home year after year–they were perpetually overvalued by linesmakers to reflect public perception. That hasn’t changed and may have become more pronounced.
Put that aside for a moment and try to make a case for why the Cubs are a -200 favorite here. Doing a little math, that gives us an implied probability of 66.7% meaning the Cubs would have to win almost 70% of the time just to break even. It’s definitely not ‘home field advantage’–home field may mean less in Major League Baseball than in any other sport. And the Cubs have lost money this year at home despite a 26-14 record (-4.8 units). The Cubs are always overvalued at home. That’s just one of the realities of life–dogs bark, birds sing and the Cubs are overvalued at home. They’ve done a good job at least ‘treading water’ over the past three season where they’ve lost just -0.4 units but that’s definitely not the sign of a correct valuation. With a record of 118-89 you’d think they would have at least turned a small profit. Their home record and units lost since 1997 is mind boggling. During that time, Chicago was 821-774 on their home field or 47 games over .500. Had you bet on the Cubs in every one of those games you would have lost -167.4 units.
The most compelling Cubs edge in this game is the recent form of right hander Kyle Hendricks who has been excellent over the past month. Texas lefthander Martin Perez, meanwhile, has struggled and is coming off his worst start of the season. Give the Cubs an edge for Hendricks’ excellent form. The Cubs also hit lefthanders well with a record of 20-10 +1 unit. But lest we forget the Rangers are 40-25 +18.5 units against righthanders. No matter how I parse this matchup I can’t justify making the Cubs more than a -135 favorite even with charitable math. Throw in the ‘public team’ factor and I could see them being a -150 favorite. But take a look at that record against lefthanders again–Chicago is 10 games over .500 and they’ve made one single unit. They’re 12 games over .500 at home and have lost -4.8 units.
The most important thing to remember in sports betting is this: You’re not trying to ‘pick winners’. That’s what amateurs do. Your job is to ‘find value’. If you find the value and bet the value the wins and losses take care of themselves and you make money. One of the sharpest sports bettors on the planet once told me that ‘squares bet teams, sharps bet numbers’. The ‘squares’ in this game will be looking at their beloved Cubs but we’ll be on the other side–where the value is.
BET TEXAS RANGERS +180 OVER CHICAGO CUBS