Favored Royals Aim for 2nd Victory Against Beleaguered Detroit
Who: Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers
When: Tuesday September 5th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Comerica Park—Detroit, Michigan
The Tigers’ tough loss in the series opener with Kansas City on Monday solidified that this year’s team will have the worst record in well over a decade (since 2003). Though this will come as no surprise to Detroit fans, it is some depressing news for a sports city that can’t seem to get much of anything going. Making matters worse, their record is looking like it might get even worse by the time 9 innings of baseball are played on Tuesday night, as the Royals are sending one of their star pitchers to the mound.
The Royals—a team that is fighting to make the post-season thanks to a Wild Card berth—have not exactly been playing the best baseball in the world in recent weeks. While they are still very much in the AL Wild Card conversation, the last week or so of baseball has left a lot to be desired. In their last 11 games, the Royals have gone just 4-7, dropping games to other AL playoff contenders in the form of the Twins, Rays, and Indians. So, while we might have established that the Royals find it tough to compete with teams that are equally talented, we are realizing that the Tigers are a team Kansas City might be able to succeed against.
For the Royals, these next few series are all or nothing. They currently sit 2.5 games out of a Wild Card position, and with teams like Los Angeles and Minnesota heating up, they will need to win against teams like Detroit in order to keep the pace. If they can reverse their current form and keep opposing teams’ run tallies to a minimum, I think Kansas City has a realistic opportunity to make a post-season appearance this year.
Game Overview and Analysis
When Kansas City (-130) take the field for the 2nd game of their series, they will do so with Jason Vargas (14-9 3.87 ERA) on the mound. At first glance, Vargas’ 14-win record might lead you to believe that he is having a great season, and this line of thought would not be totally amiss. Of course, any starting pitcher that can edge in on 15 wins is more than likely going to be having a good season, however Vargas’ story is a tale of 2 halves. Vargas was selected to the AL All-Star team thanks to him having accrued 12 wins during the first half of the season, all while losing only 3. Since the All-Star Break, however, Vargas has won just 2 games, and has lost 6. His pitching has grown to be as inconsistent as ever, and his coach is blaming it on Tommy John surgery that was performed in 2015.
Speaking with reporters was Royals’ manager Ned Yost, when he said, “He had the Tommy John and pitched 12 innings last year, and he’s up around 150-inning mark now. That’s going to take a little bit of a toll on anybody. He still continues to go out and compete.” So while Vargas may be working on a comeback, the Royals are hoping he again finds his form sooner rather than later.
For the Tigers (+110), it will be Anibal Sanchez (3-3 6.95 ERA) who will be taking the mound. While Vargas’ stat line might not tell an accurate story of his season, Sanchez’s does exactly that. Sanchez will be making his first start since early August after suffering an injury. His rehab outing with Single-A West Michigan saw Sanchez give up 3 earned runs in 4 innings pitched.
According to sources, that Single-A start saw Sanchez throw 70 pitches, and the plan is for him to throw at least 90 tonight. Of course, that will all depend upon how he is faring. To be realistic, the Detroit offense really needs to take advantage of Vargas’ current slump if they want any chance of winning. I do not foresee Sanchez having the best of nights, and if Vargas can come out and shut the Detroit offense down, the Tigers may fall into an 0-2 hole in this series.
Betting Prediction
I think, if you are looking to make a moneyline wager, that you have to go with the visiting Royals. For one, the Royals need to win if they want to keep post-season hopes alive. Secondly, the Royals are starting the stronger of the 2 pitchers, even if he is having a rough second half of the season.
As far as the over/under is concerned, it is currently listed at an even 10 runs (-105/-115) by Bovada. This is a fairly high total, and for that reason I think you have to go with the under (-115). Vargas may not be winning, but he is not exactly giving up a load of runs, either. Sanchez may get hit around, but I still see this game staying below 10 total runs.