‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 25 Episode 3 Betting Odds
–This is the 25th season for ABC’s reality show.
–NFL running back Rashad Jennings was the Season 24 winner.
–’Dancing With The Stars’ Episode 3 will air on September 26, 2017.
It’s a double elimination week on ‘Dancing with the Stars’ and we’ll have another live show–with another contestant getting ‘sent off’–on Wednesday night. Due to the quick turnaround, this post will be a bit shorter than usual as we run through the performance of the entire field. Expect a longer analysis of both shows in the Episode 4 preview:
EPISODE TWO CONTESTANT REPORT CARD
I ran down the entire contestant roster in the Episode 1 preview and provided my analysis of their chances. Until further notice, that’s how I’ll report on the ‘DWTS’ shows going forward–we’ll look at each dancer’s performance in the previous week and that should explain the competitive dynamic and what it means for the betting odds.
VICTORIA ARLEN: We’ve been over Victoria Alren’s almost unbelievable story twice now but it amazes me every time I read or hear it. Arlen spent four years in a vegetative state (2006 to 2010). Coming out of that at all to have any type of normal life would be amazing enough but by 2012 she was a Gold Medal winning Paralympic swimmer. Great she made the best of a bad circumstance and all of that but she wasn’t done. In April 2016 she *learned to walk again* after being paralyzed from the waist down for almost a decade. That happens a lot…wait…no it doesn’t. And as if she already hadn’t overcome enough we learned in the Season 25 premiere that **she has no feeling in her legs**. Several other celebrities have their own issues including Debbie Gibson, who has been struggling to get back to 100% after a bout of Lyme Disease but good luck playing the ‘sympathy’ card this season. Here’s what E! News said about her Episode 2 performance:
The former Paralympic swimmer and ESPN host performed a “tough cookie tango” to Taylor Swift s “Look What You Made Me Do,” bringing out an intensity that “scared” Bruno. Isn’t is still crazy to think, as Victoria said, her legs weren’t even moving “two years ago,” and now she is tangoing like a pro?
Arlen ended up in a three way tie for the ‘best score’ (24). She’s on another level of tough.
NIKKI BELLA: Nikki finished with a solid 21. Nothing at all wrong with her dance but nothing particularly memorable either. To use a sports metaphor “she did what she had to do”. I still expect her to be one of the last contestants standing.
BARBARA CORCORAN: Corcoran was the low score of the episode (17) and the first contestant eliminated. Since the oldest contestant to ever win ‘DWTS’ was 52 (and the oldest female was 50) she wasn’t expected to contend. She didn’t embarrass herself but in a very deep and capable field she just couldn’t hang.
DEREK FISHER: D-Fish didn’t impress at all with the judges emphasizing his poor technique while acknowledging that he’s got a lot of potential. Funny that the tone of my pre-season preview of D-Fish emphasized his ‘unrealized potential’ as a NBA player. Tied for the second lowest score at 19. He could improve enough to survive another week or so but has no margin for error. I expect him to be the next contestant out.
JORDAN FISHER: Once again, Jordan Fisher turned in a very good performance and his Viennese Waltz pulled down one of the top scores. His 24 points put him in the three-way-tie for top score of the episode. The judges had a few critiques (one said his performance was ‘too sharp’ whatever that means) but there’s no reason to think he won’t contend for the Season 25 win.
DEBBIE GIBSON: Debbie said that she doesn’t want to use her health issues as an excuse. It’s a good thing. Not to minimize what she’s dealt with recovering from Lyme Disease but lest we forget she a) could walk and b) wasn’t in a vegetative state. Debbie might end up being this season’s Nancy Kerrigan–not bad, but not particularly good. She finished with a 20 but did have the disadvantage of going first. Unless something drastic happens you can pencil her in for a middle of the pack finish.
NICK LACHEY: My take last week watching Nick Lachey’s performance was that ‘I expected him to be better. Nothing went right for Nick and partner Peta Murgatroyd. Her dress got caught on the bench at the start of the routine. Unfortunately, she couldn’t just tear it away like they do in the movies but it screwed up their performance. Nick still looks amazingly uncomfortable for a guy with so much experience performing for an audience. The 19 point finish was only marginally better than last week (17). Dress snafu or not, Nick and Peta better pick up the pace or they could be out quickly.
VANESSA LACHEY: Likely the biggest surprise of the show to date. In a season where one of the contestants has only been walking for a few months that’s saying something. I had dismissed her as just a random pretty girl but she nailed her dance and looked like a star. Not sure if she’s got a lot of potential for week to week improvement but she’s definitely one of the best now and finished as part of the three way tie for high score of the episode.
FRANKIE MUNIZ: Frankie opened Season 25 by in the middle of the pack with 19 points. That was surprising and he had another trick up his sleeve in Episode 2 finishing with 23 points and a tie the second highest score. He was more comfortable this week and is just about the most likable guy you’ll find anywhere. He’ll be around for awhile.
TERRELL OWENS: In my review of Week 1 I observed that ‘T.O’ probably deserved a better score than he got. Do I detect a trend here? Here’s what E! News said:
Um, sexiest fox trot after?! Phew. After coming in second to last place in the premiere, Terrell’s competitiveness kicked in, leading to some heated exchanges with Cheryl during rehearsals. But they turned that tension into a sexual one on the dance floor, with Carrie calling the performance “steamy.” But it was, surprise surprise, “too raunchy” for Len.
This week it’s just not me observing that ‘T.O’ might have been underscored–after the duo finished with a 20 partner Cheryl Burke took to social media to make the same point. She did it as gently as possible and didn’t flat out ‘cut a promo’ on the judges. If ‘T.O’s competitiveness kicks in as suggested he could be a monster. If he can’t get a fair shake from the judges, however, it might not matter.
SASHA PIETERSE: Sasha was better this week and she and partner Gleb Savchenko finished with a 23. Apparently she’d received some pointers from her parents who are legit professional ballroom dancers. She’s safe for a few weeks but if she’s going to break into the top tier of contenders she’s got to pick up the pace.
DREW SCOTT: I expected better from Drew Scott opening week but his dancing was called ‘clunky’ and ‘clumsy’. He definitely improved and picked up a 20 for Episode 2. He’s working an injury angle after he hurt his hamstring in practice. At the time he could ‘barely walk on it’ but after Monday’s dance said he was just ‘a little sore’. Still think it will be a quick exit for the ‘Property Brothers’ co-star.
LINDSEY STIRLING: Another week, another impressive performance for one of the favorites to win it all. Here’s what E! Online said:
OK, so clearly, they are the team to beat right? Their quickstep, with Lindsey transforming from a caterpillar into a butterfly (which she felt represented her struggle with depression), was so creative and fun aka Mark’s specialty. “I have missed seeing you,” Len admitted to the returning pro. (And we cheered!) But we actually think they deserved a higher score, just sayin’!
I definitely thought her performance was on par with the three dances that earned 24 scores. Hers was the most ‘artistically ambitious’–she transformed from a caterpillar into a butterfly which she said represented her struggle to overcome depression. She definitely talks like a college dance major. She may have been underscored but a 21 won’t hurt her in the long run. Like I said last week, she’s the ‘total package’. She’s got that undefinable ‘it factor’. People who aren’t familiar with her (and before the season I would have been included in that group) might not realize how hugely popular she is–her YouTube Channel has 9.7 million subscribers and her videos have a mere 1.8 billion plus views. If I had to back just one horse in this race it would be Sterling.
Here’s the betting odds for Season 25 of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ along with some odds on Episode 3:
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Nikki Bella: +350
Jordan Fisher: +350
Lindsey Stirling: +350
Terrell Owens: +750
Debbie Gibson: +950
Frankie Muniz: +950
Vanessa Lachey: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Drew Scott: +2500
Nick Lachey: +2500
Derek Fisher: +5000
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Nikki Bella/Jordan Fisher/Lindsey Sterling: -125
Any other contestant: +105
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 EPISODE 3 BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 3?
Derek Fisher: +350
Drew Scott: +400
Nick Lachey: +450
Terrell Owens: +500
Debbie Gibson: +750
Frankie Muniz: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Lindsey Stirling: +2500
Vanessa Lachey: +2500
Nikki Bella: +2500
Jordan Fisher: +2500
No One Eliminated in Week 2: +2500
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 3?
Derek Fisher/Drew Scott: -250
Any other contestant: +210
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE IN EPISODE 3
Jordan Fisher: +350
Nikki Bella: +500
Lindsey Stirling: +500
Vanessa Lachey: +600
Victoria Arlen: +700
Frankie Muniz: +700
Debbie Gibson: +1500
Terrell Owens: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Nick Lachey: +2500
Drew Scott: +2500
Derek Fisher: +2500
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE IN EPISODE 3
Jordan Fisher/Nikki Bella/Lindsey Stirling: -170
Any other contestant: +150
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE IN EPISODE 3
Derek Fisher: +250
Drew Scott: +350
Nick Lachey: +450
Terrell Owens: +500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Debbie Gibson: +1500
Frankie Muniz: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Lindsey Stirling: +2500
Vanessa Lachey: +2500
Nikki Bella: +2500
Jordan Fisher: +2500
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE IN EPISODE 3
Derek Fisher/Drew Scott: -250
Any other contestant: +210
OVERALL SCORING PROPOSITION ODDS
NUMBER OF ’10’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN EPISODE 3
0: -1500
1-3: +450
4-7: +1000
8+: +5000
NUMBER OF ‘9’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN EPISODE 3
0: -500
1-3: +300
4-7: +650
8+: +2500
OVERALL AVERAGE SCORE FOR EPISODE 3 WILL BE?
Over 23.5: -130
Under 23.5: +110
THE LOWEST SCORE OF EPISODE 3 WILL BE
Over 17.5: +130
Under 17.5: -150
THE HIGHEST SCORE OF EPISODE 3 WILL BE
Over 23.5: -170
Under 23.5: +150
TV RATINGS PROPOSITION ODDS
EPISODE 3 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS
Over 1.8: -150
Under 1.8: +130
EPISODE 3 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE
Over 6.5: -250
Under 6.5: +210
EPISODE 3 TOTAL VIEWERS
Over 11.75 million: -120
Under 11.75 million: +100
EPISODE 3 NIELSEN RANKING (9/25/17 through 10/1/17)
Over 10.5: -125
Under 10.5: +105