Athletics Heavily Favored to Snap Home Losing Streak
Who: Chicago White Sox v. Oakland Athletics
When: Wednesday July 5th, 2017 3:35PM EST
Where: Oakland Coliseum—Oakland, California
Oakland and the White Sox split the first two games of their three game series this week, but only one of them can win game three and take the series. It nearly took extra innings, but the Athletics were able to power through and defeat the White Sox by a score of 7-6 on the 4th of July holiday. This win was great for the morale of the Athletics, which had been suffering as of late. In fact, coming into yesterday’s matchup the Athletics had lost the last 8 games at home, allowing them to draw even with the worst home streak in the club’s history.
Chicago has not been playing overly dismal ball, but they are far from a playoff contender and see themselves falling further and further behind in the postseason race. Now 7.5 games back, the White Sox will need to up their level of play if they want to even be considered for a Wild Card spot.
Game Overview and Analysis
When Oakland (-190) take the field on Wednesday, they will do so as heavy favorites. A major part of the reason why this is so is due to the fact that Sonny Gray (3-4 4.09 ERA) will be taking the mound. Gray is rumored to be on the trade block, and a solid performance on his part might up his value a bit. After all, this is supposedly Gray’s last start for the Athletics. Gray’s last 2 starts have resulted in 1 win and 1 loss, however the two starts account for 15 total innings during which Gray gave up a total of only 2 runs. To make a long story short, Gray has been pitching well in recent weeks, and I see no reason why that will not continue against a White Sox team that has been struggling offensively.
Taking the mound for the White Sox (+160) will be Mike Pelfrey (3-6 4.13 ERA). From looking at his win-loss record alone, it is easy to tell that Pelfrey is having far from a stellar season. In recent weeks especially, the right-hander has struggled mightily, giving up a total of 8 runs in his last 2 outings combined. I am not expecting much from Pelfrey, as he really hasn’t impressed at all this season.
As far as the offenses in this game, they are some of the worst you will find in the league. In fact, both of these teams find themselves situated in the lower half of the league as far as batting stats are concerned. In fact, the Athletics are the 7th worst hitting team in the Majors. Regardless of how the pitchers perform this afternoon, all signs are pointing to this one being a rather low-scoring game. This is something that will ring especially true should Sonny Gray emit a powerful performance.
Betting Prediction
Thanks to Sonny Gray being on the mound for what is more than likely his most important performance of the season, I really like the Athletics moneyline, which is currently listed on MyBookie at -190 odds. There isn’t a large amount of value to be had in a wager like this, but I think that the Athletics are in prime position to snap their home losing streak. They were close to doing it on Tuesday, but I feel as though Wednesday is the day they record a victory at home for the first time this month.
MyBookie has the over/under for this matchup listed at 9 runs (-110/-110). With how these teams struggle from the batter’s box, I would not be at all surprised to see this game stay under 9 (-110). There is some value here, but you need to keep in mind that these two teams are as inconsistent as they come on the offensive side of the ball. More often than not they will struggle to score, but every once in a while they can pop up and hit an opposing pitcher for a load of runs. With that being said, Sonny Gray is likely to shit the Sox down and Oakland is one of the worst hitting teams in the league, so all signs are pointing to the under (-110).
The point spread for this game sees the Athletics listed as -1.5 run (+105) favorites. I like this bet because of the slightly better than even money odds you are getting, but I fear this wager due to Oakland’s offensive inconsistencies. With that being said, when Oakland swept the White Sox in Chicago a few days ago, they won each of the 3 games by at least 2 runs. Understanding this, I would not say that Oakland covering the spread is out of the question. Still, approach this wager with the utmost caution as it is difficult to accurately gauge an offense that is so blatantly inconsistent.