2017 French Presidential Election Betting Odds

–The first round of the French Presidential Election will be held on April 23, 2017.

–If no candidate wins 50%+ of the vote in the first round a runoff between the top two finishers will take place on May 7, 2017.

–Incumbent President François Hollande has been very unpopular and is not running for re-election.

Over the past month we’ve talked about how the bookmakers of the world–and particularly those in Europe–have completely lost interest in Donald Trump and the United States Presidency. There are a confluence of factors that have caused this, not the least of which is the diminishing significance of the USA to the rest of the world. Gung-ho US patriots might hold on to the delusion that their country is the ‘leader of the free world’ but that’s no longer true. The rest of the world is moving into the future while the United States remains desperate to find enemy after enemy to justify their crackdown on freedom and civil liberties. They also have to keep their financial benefactors in the military-industrial complex ‘fat and happy’. Even when the US starts lobbing cruise missiles around the world for no good reason no one really cares. Internationally, the United States is now a sick, sad joke. It quickly became apparent that despite the hopes of his supporters and the histrionics of his opponents Trump was just another President.

In addition to the growing irrelevance of the United States and American politics to the rest of the world it’s natural that countries would be more concerned with what is going on at home or nearby. This is especially true in Europe which is facing a transformation as countries and their citizens start to realize that hierarchical and centralized power structures are an anachronism. Over the next few decades this awakening will threaten the existence of the European Union and for good reason. Statism and centralized control within a country is a bad enough idea. An even higher ‘authority’ with centralized control over an entire continent is down right silly.

The revolution will be decentralized and in the hands of the individual and that terrifies the analog era power structure and their supplicants in the media. As more and more individuals are waking up to the scam that is government their survival is challenge even as their relevance to the future of the world plummets. They’re not going to go down without a fight but they’re grasping at straws trying to make a case for their continued viability. Such dubious concepts as ‘fake news’ and the laughable canard that Russian hackers are unable to break into my Gmail account but have no problem manipulating the electoral process in country after country. The latter is particularly telling–the analog era power brokers are terrified of technology and the decentralized digital future so if they can tacitly indict it as they’re coming up with their ridiculous mea culpas all the better.


The international media is spinning the narrative that the upcoming French Presidential election is a Trump v. Hillary rematch by proxy. To use a bit of pro wrestling terminology, they’re working the same ‘angles’–the election is a battle between the ‘good guys’ in the status quo political elite who are protecting truth, justice and the American…er…French way the ‘bad guys’ and their ‘Deplorable’ supporters who challenge it. At the risk of gross (though largely accurate) over simplification they’ve cast Emmanuel Macron in the role of Hillary Clinton, Marine Le Pen as a distaff Donald Trump, Jean-Luc Mélenchon reprising Bernie Sanders’ gimmick and Benoit Hamilton as British Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn for Francophiles.

In reality, it’s almost useless to make an ‘apples to oranges’ comparison between France and the United States for countless reasons. Not the least of these is the entirely divergent social, economic and political cultures. It’s far more enamored of ‘big government’ with regard to the economic marketplace and domestic programs. In this regard even the ‘far right’ candidates would be well to the left of even most American liberals. The point here isn’t to give you a lesson on French politics–it’s just important to remember that the way the mainstream European media (and for that matter the US media) is weaving the narrative about this election has little to do with what is actually happening. A good rundown of the main candidates in the election is available here:

French Election 2017: Who are the candidates? (BBC)

When is the French Presidential Election 2017, how does it work and who are the candidates?

Here’s the format of the election–the full field will be on the ballot in the first round of voting on April 23. If one candidate receives 50% or more of the total vote they’re the new President. That’s highly unlikely which means that the two top candidates will face each other in a run off on May 7.


To Win French Presidential Election

Emmanuel Macron: -200
Marine Le Pen: +215
Francois Fillon: +450
Jean-Luc Melenchon: +2000
Benoit Hamon: +10000
François Asselineau: +10000
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: +10000
Jacques Cheminade: +50000
Jean Lassalle: +50000
Nathalie Arthaud: +50000
Philippe Poutou: +50000

French Presidential Election to finish in final 2 (1-2)

Emmanuel Macron: -150
Marine Le Pen: -350
Francois Fillon: +450
Jean-Luc Melenchon: +1750
Benoit Hamon: +9500
François Asselineau: +9500
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: +9500
Jacques Cheminade: +9500
Jean Lassalle: +49000
Nathalie Arthaud: +49000
Philippe Poutou: +49000

First round vote winner

Marine Le Pen: -300
Emmanuel Macron: +210
Francois Fillon: +950
Jean-Luc Melenchon: +2500
Benoit Hamon: +9000
François Asselineau: +9000
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: +9000
Jacques Cheminade: +15000
Jean Lassalle: +15000
Nathalie Arthaud: +15000
Philippe Poutou: +15000

First round margin of victory?

0% to 1%: +300
1% to 2%: +250
2% to 3%: +270
3.1% or more: +125

Marine Le Pen 1st Round Vote Percentage

20.1% to 30%: -285
30.1% to 40%: +225
40.01% to 50%: +900
20% or lower: +1750
50.01% or higher: +1750

Will any candidate win 50.1% or more of the first round vote?

Yes: +1750
No: -2500

Will Marine Le Pen win the French Presidential Election?

Yes: +225
No: -350

Will Marine Le Pen be one of the top two candidates after the first round?

Yes: -350
No: +300

Candidates to advance to the final round (Final Two)

Emmanuel Macron & Marine Le Pen: -350
Francois Fillon & Marine Le Pen: +450
Francois Fillon & Emmanuel Macron: +750
Jean-Luc Melenchon & Marine Le Pen: +1650
Jean-Luc Melenchon & Emmanuel Macron: +2500
Benoit Hamon & Marine Le Pen: : +4500
Francois Fillon & Jean-Luc Melenchon: +7500
Francois Fillon & Benoit Hamon: +7500
Emmanuel Macron & Benoit Hamon: +7500
Jean-Luc Melenchon & Benoît Hamon: +9500
Field (any combination not listed above): +12500

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.