Tigers Narrowly Favored to Take Series Finale with Royals
Who: Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals
When: Thursday July 20th, 2017 8:15PM EST
Where: Kauffman Stadium—Kansas City, Missouri
The Tigers and Royals are in just about the same positions when it comes to the playoff picture. Though neither team will look at a post-season venture as unrealistic, they both have ground to make up before those hopes come close to reality. Thursday night’s matchup will be the 4th of a 4 game series which has thus far seen the Tigers win the first 2, and the Royals win Wednesday’s night matchup. Through these first three games, I am going to have to give it to the Tigers as the better performers. Detroit handily won the first 2 games, and barely fell by a 4-3 scoreline last night.
Though the Royals have not looked like a team that is 2 games off the pace for the division lead in this series, there was one bright spot in the bottom of the 9th inning on Wednesday, when the Royals plated 2 runs to turn a 3rd straight loss to their first victory of the series. With all of that being said, there is still no denying that the Tigers are in better form than the Royals.
Since coming back from the All-Star Break, the Tigers have won 4 of 6 and are inching their way up the divisional standings. With a headline pitching matchup set to take the field on Thursday, the series finale is bound to be a great game.
Game Overview and Analysis
Taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers (-113) will be Michael Fulmer (10-6 3.06 ERA). Fulmer’s story is an interesting one, but all you really need to know is that the right-hander won the AL Rookie of the Year title last year. He has so far followed up his impressive 2016 campaign with a solid 2017 one. Fulmer has rattled off 4 wins in his last 4 starts, during which he last at least 8 innings on 3 occasions. Fulmer is slowly but surely solidifying his position as one of the AL’s best pitchers, and will look to further build his resume on Thursday.
He is not immune to giving up a few earned runs, but in his last 10 outings he has given up more than 3 earned only twice. Perhaps even more impressive is that, in those 10 games, Fulmer has lasted at least 6 innings every time but once, and has made it 8+ innings 4 times. The durability of this young pitcher is impressive, and it seems as though he is on a roll at the present moment in time.
On the mound for the Kansas City Royals (-107) will be Danny Duffy (5-6 3.51 ERA). There are quite possibly no other active pitchers who have faced the Tigers more times than Duffy has. In his career, Duffy has faced the Tigers 18 times, 16 of which were starts. During this extensive timeframe, he has accrued a 5-7 record with a 3.84 ERA. So, while his numbers are not overly impressive, the boatloads of experience that he has against the Tigers will more than likely not hurt.
Duffy’s last 2 starts have both been losses, and in one outing he only gave up 1 earned, but in the other outing he gave up 5 earned. It is always tough to tell exactly which Danny Duffy will take the mound on any given night, but if we are going off of recent form he is trending poorly. Perhaps he will turn it around tonight to close out the series and help his team avoid losing 3 of 4 games.
Betting Prediction
The moneyline odds in this game see both teams extremely close to even money. Being that this game seems to be more of a toss-up than anything else, it may seem like a bet to avoid. Having said, that, I think the Tigers, who are in excellent form, will win this one. In addition to their recent performance, Michael Fulmer is on the mound. Having won a few consecutive games, Fulmer seems to be in a groove that I would not recommend betting against. As such, I think you have to go with the Tigers’ moneyline (-113).
The game over/under is listed by Bovada at an even 9 runs (-115/-105), but I think a more attractive proposition is the Tiger’s team over/under. Right now, the Tigers over/under is 4.5 runs (-115/-105). I think the logical wager for this one is the over (-115) seeing as the Tigers have already scored more than that amount on 2 occasions, and scored an even 4 runs last night. I would be shocked to see the Tigers’ team total stay at 4 or less.
Finally, we have a -1.5 point spread that sees the Tigers favored at +140 odds. I think that this is a value bet for this game as I do not foresee Fulmer giving up many runs, and I also think the Tigers’ bats will remain hot.