Political Betting–2016 Presidential Election Odds Saturday Update
After the crazy line movements of late last week the 2016 Presidential Election betting odds market has been trading within a very narrow band this week. The odds on Hillary Clinton to win have bounced between -250 and -300 since our last update on Monday. Takeback on Trump has likewise bounced between +200 and +275. Based on the most recent odds movements and narrow trading range I’ve moved the SportsBettingExperts.com line on the 2016 Presidential Election as we’ll see momentarily.
We’ll do a final update on Monday night prior to Tuesday Election Day. Depending on how things go this weekend there might be a Sunday update if events in the Presidential betting marketplace justify it.
Here’s the latest odds update followed by a rundown of recent movement:
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 11/05/16:
Hillary Clinton:-275
Donald Trump: +200
Other: +3500
The prices on 10/31/16:
Hillary Clinton:-300
Donald Trump: +225
Other: +3000
The prices on 10/27/16:
Hillary Clinton:-525
Donald Trump: +415
Other: +3750
Our previous update on 10/25/16 looked like this:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +4500
LINE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS
There’s a slightly wider trading range in evidence at the European books with quite a few at -333 and a couple at -350. In my estimation, this is less indicative of any significant change in the dynamic of the election as it is a result of a more practical reason. The election is right around 72 hours away and there’s still a decent amount of Hillary Clinton money in the marketplace. The most recent betting breakdown shows 50% of bets coming in on Trump, 40% of bets coming in on Clinton with right around 10% on ‘Other’. Inexplicably, Bernie Sanders is still taking the majority of the ‘Other’ money (just over 5%) though at this late juncture it’s tough to think of a scenario in which he could become President. After Sanders, there’s approximately 2% of bets coming in on Mike Pence. There’s at least a scenario by which Pence could become the next President.
Keep in mind that these ‘percentage of bets’ figures mean the *number* of bets not the amount of bets. My educated guess on how the money breakdown is going? It looks like the books are getting two sided action in this price range. Hillary has found buyers when her prices have gone below -300 and that definitely makes sense. As we’ve noted in the past, it wasn’t that long ago that Hillary was priced at -600 or higher. If you liked Hillary at this price there’s a good chance you’ll like her even better at half that price. What I think you’re seeing now is bettors wanting to ‘lock in’ a price on Hillary. That makes sense from a simple momentum standpoint–after her rough week there’s really no where she can go between now and the election other than up slightly. You could see some additional movement toward Hillary for this reason alone–her backers figuring that the price on her can’t get any lower.
Trump’s bettors are in a different situation for the same reason outlined above. Since it looks like Hillary’s prices are trending upward slightly there’s no rush to get your ‘money into the pot’ if you like Trump. Assuming that nothing happens to change the competitive dynamic of the race (and that’s always a possibility) any sharp bettor that likes Trump will just sit and wait for the time being. After observing the line movement swings of the past week or so it’s a logical conclusion that a Trump bettor will always be able to get involved at +225 or +250. The ‘smart move’ is to wait and see if a better price manifests itself between now and Election Day. There’s always the risk that something happens to push prices on Trump lower but the opposite is also true. Another ancillary benefit of ‘waiting and seeing’ is the ability to continue monitoring the dynamics of the race. In theory, the longer you wait to place a bet the better assuming that you’ll be able to get a similar price to what is available now. The reason for this is very basic–the more information you have available the stronger your position.
As was the case at the time of our last writeup, there looks to be plenty of equilibrium in the betting marketplace. I expect prices on Clinton to bounce between -250 and -350 with a slightly wider betting range and takeback on Trump to bounce between +200 and +250. This may change in the final 24 hours with what will likely be a surge of last minute betting but for the weekend at least I expect this equilibrium in the market to hold.