Pirates Favored to Bounce Back in Game 2 with Tampa Bay
Who: Tampa Bay Rays v. Pittsburgh Pirates
When: Wednesday June 28th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: PNC Park—Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Pirates and the Rays are both in the same positions in their respective divisions, and despite inconsistent play are very much in the playoff race. Last night saw these two teams battle to an even score through 9 innings and venture into extras. It did not take long for Tampa Bay to seal their victory, however, as an error by the Pirates’ David Freese in the top of the 10th allowed the tiebreaking run to score. Another was tacked on thanks to a sacrifice fly, and by the end of the 10th the Rays were 4-2 victors.
In many ways, that sort of comedy of errors in extra innings describes the Pirates’ season thus far perfectly. The Pirates were, in many circles, favorites to win the NL Central, but currently find themselves in 3rd, 5 games off the pace. The Rays, on the other hand, are playing in line with expectations and only find themselves 3 games off the pace in the AL East.
Pitching Matchup and Analysis
When the Pirates (-130) take the field on Wednesday evening, they will be facing off against a pitcher who has had a rough ride through the first half of the 2017 season. Though Blake Snell has an 0-4 record coupled with an ERA over 4, these stats alone do not tell the whole story. After a rough few first outings, Snell was sent down to the Rays’ (+110) Triple-A affiliate in Durham, North Carolina. There, he amassed a 5-0 record and 2.66 ERA. Thanks, at least in part, to his performances at the Triple-A level, Snell was called back up to MLB earlier this week, and is slated to start against the Pirates. As for what we can expect to see from him, that much remains a mystery. His MLB performances this year have been poor, to say the least, but his recent form—albeit in Triple-A—has been absolutely flawless.
On the opposing mound will be Ivan Nova (7-5 3.06 ERA). The right-handed veteran has performed well thus far, and is looking to avenge his most recent outing, which resulted in 4 earned runs and a 4-2 loss for the Pirates. For the most part this year, Nova has performed well and tends to take care of business all while lasting at least 7 innings more often than not. With that being said, it seems rather easy to rattle him. When Nova gives up runs, he tends to give them up in bunches. Like Snell, it is always difficult to tell what Ivan Nova will take the mound on a given night.
Both the Pirates (-130) and the Rays (+110) have been playing better baseball in recent weeks and are both making concentrated efforts to work their way up both the divisional and wild card standings. This is an important series for both teams, but one that I think favors the Pirates, especially on Wednesday night. I think Snell is going to have a not so easy time adjusting to the majors after spending more than a month in the minors, and I think Pittsburgh has more than enough firepower to take advantage.
Betting Prediction
As far as who I think is going to emerge victorious from this matchup, I think you have to put your money on the Pirates moneyline (-130). The -130 odds get you close to even money, which is good, but even more important than that is the fact that Snell has spent a good bit of recent time in the minor leagues. No matter what way you slice it, the difference between playing at the top level of baseball and Triple-A is massive, and Snell will have to do at least some adjusting. With that being said, Snell is fully aware of the pressure he is facing. Even though I do not think it is likely, there is a chance that he steps out onto the mound and pieces together a performance for the ages.
As far as the over/under is concerned, I think the most logical bet here is under 8.5 runs (-110), which is currently listed by Bovada. Ivan Nova may have given up 4 and 3 runs in his respective last 2 starts, but I think he is primed to bounce back, especially because the Pirates can simply not afford to lose three games in a row. The Rays’ Snell may just be bouncing back from a stint at the Triple-A level, but I do not think he is going to let the Pirates score a boatload of runs on him. 2 or 3 runs? Maybe. But I still think the under (-110) is your best bet in this one.
Finally, for the conservative bettor Bovada lists an alternate spread which sees the Pirates listed as +1.5 underdogs (-225). The odds might not be the best, but seeing as I fully expect the Buccos to win, they should easily cover this spread.