NJPW Wrestle Kingdom 12: Kazuchika Okada vs. Tetsuya Naito Betting Odds
– For wrestlers and serious fans Japan is considered the apex of the sport.
– New Japan Pro Wrestling (NJPW) is the hottest promotion in pro wrestling worldwide.
Wrestle Kingdom is NJPW’s biggest show of the year similar to the WWE’s Wrestlemania
The rest of the world–and particularly the United States–is starting to figure out what serious wrestling fans have known for years. The best pro wrestling on the planet is in Japan. This isn’t to say that there aren’t great matches and workers in the US, Europe, Mexico and elsewhere. In fact, the quality of pro wrestling in the US is higher now than its been in years. The reality, however, is that ‘pound for pound’ Japan has the best workers, best matchups and a serious subculture of aficionados that support not only the top promotion (New Japan Pro Wrestling) but any number of smaller groups. Japan was also the first country to feature women’s wrestling as anything more than a time filler or ‘fan service’ for leering fans. During its prime years in the early 1990s, All Japan Women’s (AJW) featured not only the best women’s wrestling in the sport but was considered by many to be *the* best wrestling promotion in the world. If all you know of women’s wrestling is ‘Divas’ you owe it to yourself to check out some All Japan Women’s archival footage on YouTube.
New Japan Pro Wrestling (NJPW) is starting to make inroads outside of their home country. They now simulcast major events in both Japanese and English and have promoted a couple of very successful shows on US soil as well as working with the top North American ‘Indy’ promotion Ring of Honor (ROH). This year they’re making a big move to make their biggest show of the year a ‘must see’ event outside of the Japanese hardcore fan circuit. Wrestle Kingdom 12 is scheduled for January 4, 2018 at the Tokyo Dome and features a packed card. While most longtime puroresu aficionados are most looking forward to the IWGP Championship match between Kazuchika Okada and Tetsuya Naito the match getting the most mainstream publicity features ‘The Cleaner’ Kenny Omega facing Chris Jericho, who will be wrestling in New Japan for the first time in twenty years.
A couple of weeks ago I ran down the odds for the epic ‘dream match’ between Kenny Omega and Chris Jericho which has gained even more ‘intensity’ due to the angles in the run up.. In this article I’ll look at the other main event for the show as IWGP Champion Kazuchika Okada defends against two time and reigning Tokyo Sports ‘MVP’ Tetsuya Naito.
KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO AT WRESTLE KINGDOM 12
The various WWE titles may get the most mainstream attention in the United States but you can make a very compelling case that the IWGP Championship is the most prestigious pro wrestling championship in the world. It dates back to 1987 and first champion Antonio Inoki–one of the gods of Japanese puroresu. In the 30 years since there have been 27 wrestlers to hold the IWGP crown and there’s not a weak link in the bunch (with the possible exception of the 66 day title reign of Bob Sapp). Current champion Kazuchika Okada has held the IWGP belt for 553 days giving him the longest title reign in history. Okada is ‘the franchise’ for New Japan–essentially a Japanese version of Ric Flair in his prime. Charismatic as hell and arguably the best in-ring performer in wrestling, Okada’s most recent title reign has been epic with a series of defenses rated 4 stars or higher by The Wrestling Observer’s Dave Meltzer. He was Kenny Omega’s opponent in three of the only five matches in pro wrestling history rated higher than 5 stars. One such match was the main event of Wrestle Kingdom 11 of which Meltzer said: “Kenny Omega and Kazuchika Okada may have put on the greatest match in pro wrestling history”.
THE ARTIST FORMERLY KNOWN AS ‘STARDUST GENIUS’ TETSUYA NAITO
Naito has always been a talented in-ring performer but his career looked to be going nowhere after a loss to AJ Styles at Wrestle Kingdom 10. His babyface ‘Stardust Genius’ gimmick was bland and unmemorable and he was no longer part of the elite at the top of the card battling for the various championship belts. That would change following a tour of Mexico with CMLL teaming with La Sombra as part of his Los Ingobernables heel stable (loosely translates to the ‘ungovernables’ or the ‘unruly’). He returned to Japan with a new look and attitude–he often wrestled looking as if he just rolled out of bed and his unkept hair was a marked contrast to the clean cut ‘Stardust Genius’. He announced that he was forming a Japanese branch of his CMLL stable called Los Ingobernables de Japon. The group currently consists of Naito, Bushi, Evil, Hiromu Takahashi and Sanada with former ROH champion Jay Lethal working with them from time to time.
Fast forward two years and Naito is likely the hottest wrestler in the sport. As noted above, he’s won the Tokyo Sports MVP (essentially ‘wrestler of the year’) back to back in 2016 and 2017 putting him in elite company as a multiple time winner along with Keiji Mutoh, Antonio Inoki, Hiroshi Tanahashi, Genichiro Tenryu, Jumbo Tsuruta, Giant Baba and Okada. He’s said that he wants to equal Inoki’s 3 straight wins (1976-1978) with a repeat in 2018 (Tenryu also won three straight in 1986-1988).
Dave Meltzer said that prior to the formation of Los Ingobernables de Japon (LIJ for short) that Naito was regarded as “something of a genius in the ring for his ability to lay out matches” but “something didn’t click” resulting in a mixed reception from fans with “a combination of some fans booing, and some apathy”. That’s no longer the case–LIJ overtook The Bullet Club as the ‘cool’ stable with the resulting merch sales. They’ve even had an impact outside of wrestling with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp baseball team releasing LIJ themed shirts (Carp de Japon and Tranquilo de Carp).
THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS MATCH
Huge. Not only are the two expected to put on a great match but Okada’s record title reign is on the line. Naito was the man Okada beat to regain the title in June 2016 following a 70 day reign. Naito had won the belt from Okada in April of that year.
Several booking theories at play here. Okada’s status as ‘the man’ is not in doubt but it’s about time for him to lose the belt. Nothing can kill a promotion faster than a champion whom fans think can’t lose. If it becomes apparent that he’ll go over every challenger why make the effort to pay attention in the first place? Naito has likely earned a run of more than his previous 40 days both due to his back-to-back ‘MVP’ awards and status as the most popular wrestler in the company. A new champion can also help keep the promotion from becoming ‘stale’ due to fans watching the same feuds and same matches over and over again.
On the other hand, Japanese wrestling is very mindful of its history and particularly with a prestigious belt like the IWGP title. The IWGP belt has been defended at each of the previous 11 Wrestle Kingdom shows–and changed hands only twice (at WK 2 and WK 3). The champion has now defended in 8 straight WK title events with either Okada or Tanahashi emerging victorious in 7 of those. Okada has defended the belt at 3 of the last 4 Wrestle Kingdom shows. The theory among bookers is that they want to ‘send the fans home happy’ at the biggest show of the year but this time there’s not an obvious victor by which to achieve that. Furthermore, the tradition of a champion defending can have the same deleterious impact of a champion that never loses–if it becomes obvious that the IWGP belt won’t change hands at Wrestle Kingdom the show becomes less compelling, particularly to casual fans.
NEW JAPAN PRO WRESTLING WRESTLE KINGDOM 12 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO MATCH
Kazuchika Okada: +210
Tetsuya Naito: -250
If the match ends in a draw or no decision bet will be graded as a ‘push’
TETSUYA NAITO TO WIN WITH HIS ‘DESTINO’ FINISHING MOVE?
Yes: -210
No: +180
Tetsuya Naito to use his ‘Destino’ move immediately before scoring pin or submission will be graded ‘Yes’. Any other outcome including a no-decision or loss will be graded ‘No’
KAZUCHIKA OKADA TO WIN WITH HIS ‘RAINMAKER’ FINISHING MOVE?
Yes: +300
No: -350
Kazuchika Okada to use his ‘Rainmaker’ move immediately before scoring pin or submission will be graded ‘Yes’. Any other outcome including a no-decision or loss will be graded ‘No’
KAZUCHIKA OKADA TO WIN WITH HIS ‘COBRA CLUTCH’ FINISHING MOVE?
Yes: +600
No: -750
Kazuchika Okada to use his ‘Cobra Clutch’ move immediately before scoring pin or submission will be graded ‘Yes’. Any other outcome including a no-decision or loss will be graded ‘No’
KAZUCHIKA OKADA TO KICK OUT OF TETSUYA NAITO’S ‘DESTINO’ DURING MATCH?
Yes: -250
No: +210
Move must be successfully executed and not blocked or countered. Kazuchika Okada must kick out of Tetsuya Naito’s ‘Destino’ finisher at any time during match to be graded ‘Yes’.
TETSUYA NAITO TO KICK OUT OF KAZUCHIKA OKADA’S ‘RAINMAKER’ DURING MATCH?
Yes: -350
No: +300
Move must be successfully executed and not blocked or countered. Tetsuya Naito must kick out of Kazuchika Okada’s ‘Rainmaker’ finisher at any time during match to be graded ‘Yes’.
TETSUYA NAITO TO KICK OUT OF/ESCAPE FROM KAZUCHIKA OKADA’S ‘COBRA CLUTCH’ DURING MATCH?
Yes: -210
No: +180
Move must be successfully executed and not blocked or countered. Tetsuya Naito must kick out of or escape Kazuchika Okada’s ‘Cobra Clutch’ finisher at any time during match to be graded ‘Yes’.
TIME OF KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO MATCH
Over 15:00 minutes: -1200
15:00 minutes or under: +900
TIME OF KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO MATCH
25:00 minutes or over: -750
Under 18 minutes: +600
TIME OF KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO MATCH
Over 35:00 minutes: -350
35:00 or under: +300
TIME OF KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO MATCH
Over 45:00 minutes: +210
45:00 or under: -250
THE WRESTLING OBSERVER/DAVE MELTZER’S STAR RATING FOR KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO NJPW WRESTLE KINGDOM 12 MATCH?
5 Stars or higher: -250
Under 5 Stars: +210
THE WRESTLING OBSERVER/DAVE MELTZER’S STAR RATING FOR KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO NJPW WRESTLE KINGDOM 12 MATCH?
4 Stars or higher: -750
Under 4 Stars: +600
THE WRESTLING OBSERVER/DAVE MELTZER’S STAR RATING FOR KAZUCHIKA OKADA VS. TETSUYA NAITO NJPW WRESTLE KINGDOM 12 MATCH?
6 Stars or higher: +180
Under 6 Stars: -210
WRESTLE KINGDOM MATCH TO HAVE THE HIGHEST STAR RATING FROM THE WRESTLING OBSERVER/DAVE MELTZER
Kazuchika Okada vs. Tetsuya Naito: -350
Kenny Omega vs. Chris Jericho: +350
WRESTLE KINGDOM MATCH TO HAVE THE HIGHEST LONGEST OFFICIAL RUNNING TIME
Kazuchika Okada vs. Tetsuya Naito: -750
Kenny Omega vs. Chris Jericho: +600