MLB Baseball Betting for June 24, 2016

Sunday is the 24th of July–Pioneer Day in the state of Utah, which has nothing to do with Major League Baseball. For those of you are interested, it’s the holiday that commemorates the entry of Brigham Young and his band of Mormon settlers into Utah’s Salt Lake Valley in 1847. Basically, it’s very similar to the 4th of July (maybe with less booze) and includes fireworks, food, etc.

Full card of Major League Baseball on Sunday as well:

MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR JUNE 24, 2016:

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT CINCINNATI REDS:

Maybe we’ve been calling the wrong team a ‘dumpster fire‘. In all honesty, both teams are pretty bad but the Cincinnati Reds are on the verge of sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks and can do so with a win here. The Reds have the worst record between these two teams and have generally looked more inept this season. Cincinnati is 37-59 and 21.5 games out of first place (pending the outcome of Saturday action). Arizona is 40-56 and 17.5 games out of first place. The Diamondbacks have been in horrible form of late losing 8 of their last 10 games. They’ve been particularly bad at home this season where they’re an almost unfathomable 17-35 for a loss of over 24 units. They’ve been decent on the road at 23-21 but they sure haven’t looked ‘decent’ during this series. The Reds, meanwhile, have been substandard at home (23-27) but miserable on the road–as in at 14-32 they have the worst road record in Major League Baseball.

Things are getting ugly in Arizona. The media have started to point fingers at who to blame for the miserable season. Currently, the leading candidates are GM Dave Stewart and Tony LaRussa. Of course they’re not going to be the ones taking the fall, at least not initially. That will be manager Chip Hale who is reportedly already on the hot seat–as in he could wake up tomorrow (or more likely when the team gets back to Phoenix) and be out of a job. LaRussa has apparently been calling in favors from friends in the media such as ESPN baseball guy Tim Kurkjian who wrote this column singing his praises.

A good start for everyone concerned would be to get a win in the series finale on Sunday and you know that all of the kneejerk ‘bet against the sweep’ types will be out in force for this one. Zack Godley will get his fourth start of the season on Sunday. He hasn’t been horrible and the D-Backs are 2-1 in his 3 starts despite his 5.06 ERA. He’ll be opposed by lefthander Brandon Finnegan–the Reds have won his last two starts though his near term ERA looks horrible due in large part to a downright miserable performance at Washington on June 30. On that day Finnigan didn’t make it out of the third inning allowing 8 ER in just 2 1/3 innings of work.

The Reds have done fairly well playing opponents with losing records in recent weeks. They’re on a 6-2 run against sub .500 opponents while the Diamondbacks have lost 4 of 5 against losing opponents. That’s enough to put us on the Reds here–they seem to be exerting more of an effort right now than Arizona who looks like they’re waiting for the ax to fall on their manager.

BET CINCINNATI REDS -120 OVER ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a strange team. At one point in early June they looked awful and appeared to be headed to the lower echelons of the standings. They got things together and are now at least theoretically in contention for the NL Central title. Pending the outcome of Saturday’s action they’re 9 games back of the Chicago Cubs and 2.5 games back of the second place St. Louis Cardinals. On one hand, that’s not a bad situation. They’re one of two teams to be within single digits of the Chicago Cubs all season. On the other hand, they’ve not been able to get any closer to the Cubs despite Chicago’s miserable run before the All Star Break. Chicago lost again on Saturday but the Pirates and Cardinals can’t assume that they’ll keep losing. If they get healthy and get back in the groove they could run off a bunch of wins in a short amount of time.

Pittsburgh seems to always be suffering some sort of weird mishap or another and for that reason alone it’s amazing they’re above .500 this year. On Saturday, rookie right hander Tyler Glasnow left his start with shoulder soreness. The Pirates may have played their worst game of the year on Friday night but rebounded on Saturday in a 7-4 win.

Philadelphia will start right hander Vincent Velasquez who would be a top flight pitcher on any other team. Even as bad as the Phillies have they’ve won 10 of his 16 starts including 5 of 8 on the road. They’ve also won 2 of his last 3. Overall, Velasquez has a 3.15 ERA and 1.237 WHIP. On the road, he’s got a 4.74 ERA and a 1.511 WHIP. He’s looked really good in his last 3 starts with a 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP with 18 strikeouts in 19 innings of work.

He’ll be opposed by right hander Jameson Taillon who was on the wrong end of a scary incident in his last start. He took a 105 MPH line drive off the back of his head. And you thought I was kidding about Pittsburgh always suffering some ‘weird mishap’ or another. The ball careened all the way into right field for a single but obviously everyone was concerned about Taillon’s well being. Credit to Taillon for being a tough S.O.B. since he was not only seriously injured he ‘shook it off’ and stayed in the game. A NBA player would have been sidelined for the rest of the season. I have no clue how Taillon avoided a broken skull or concussion but he did.

The Pirates have won Taillon’s last three starts and basically dominated the Phillies in recent years. Pittsburgh is currently on a 12-4 run overall and a 7-1 run at home. Taillon obviously has some serious luck and good karma working for him after he walked away from what looked like a broken skull or brain damage.

BET PITTSBURGH PIRATES -145 OVER PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.