2018 Grammy Awards Betting Odds

–The Grammy Awards soldiers on despite declining influence in a digital world

–The nominees are all very ‘safe’ to a mainstream audience

–The Grammy Awards presentation will take place on January 28, 2018

In 1978, Pete Townshend wrote a song on the last great album by the Who ‘Who Are You’ called ‘Music Must Change’. Spoiler alert–it has. When the dominant player in a hierarchical industry can no longer ‘control the narrative’ things change quickly. After years of successfully controlling distribution and using their political clout to stave off any threat to their business model the walls came tumbling down. They’d successfully killed off Digital Audio Taping (DAT) in the 1980s’. They used their relationship with government cronies to get ‘a cut’ of sales of *blank* cassettes and even CD’s. In Canada at one point, over 70% of the cost of blank CDs went right into the recording industry’s pocket. They were able to control who got exposure, who got distribution, and who got promotion.

Alternative artists were essentially marginalized as ‘fake music’ and relegated to ‘import bins’ in dingy college town record stores. The big record stores like Musicland and Record Bar served up a hand picked, sanitized, RIAA approved selection of music to middle America. Their supplicants in the radio industry did their part. In the 1970’s, if you didn’t want to listen to the industry’s approved mixture of disco, mainstream soul, ‘arena rock’ or mainstream country you had few options to listen to or buy new music. You had even fewer ways to learn about it in the first place.

PUNK ROCK AND DIGITAL OBLITERATION

In 2018, the analog era recording industry is running on fumes. The original blow was struck by punk rock followed by other ‘non approved’ genres like heavy metal, rap, ‘outlaw’ country and countless other musical permutations. The digital era and the Internet did the rest. In fact, you can make a compelling case that the recording industry was the first legacy industry to experience this kind of seismic change. It’s impacted creation, promotion, distribution and every other element of the business. The ‘old school’ recording business is on the outside looking in. They’re still around–they’ve been able to stay alive thanks to legal threats and cronyism with government but they’re essentially the ‘walking dead’. No one needs them anymore but they’re still trying to play the game the way they’ve always had.

The Grammy Awards is the annual celebration of the legacy recording industry. There’s been less and less to celebrate and the awards have become almost irrelevant to music fans and sales of recordings and concert tickets. The TV ratings of the annual show clearly reflects this–the first televised ceremony in 1974 drew a 30.8 Neilsen Rating. The 2016 Awards Show did a 7.7 rating but the 2017 show experienced a slight improvement with 26 million viewers and earning a 7.8 rating among adults 18-49.In the 1970’s the ‘cream of the crop’ was on display every year–like the legendary Stevie Wonder who was ubiquitous on the Grammy broadcast of that era. Now, it’s more of a musical version of the AOL home page–the ‘lowest common denominator’ that now makes up the ‘mainstream’ in an age of pop culture specialization.

That doesn’t mean that it’s not a good event to bet on. Somehow it remains the second largest awards show of the year–a fact that says more about the state of awards shows in the digital era than anything else. Here are the odds on the major categories at the 60th Grammy Awards:

60TH ANNUAL GRAMMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

DAMN. — Kendrick Lamar: -250
Melodrama — Lorde: +350
24K Magic — Bruno Mars: +350
“Awaken, My Love!” — Childish Gambino: +1800
4:44 — Jay-Z: +1800

RECORD OF THE YEAR

“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber: -150
“HUMBLE.” — Kendrick Lamar: +250
“24K Magic” — Bruno Mars: +500
“Redbone” — Childish Gambino: +900
“The Story Of O.J.” — Jay-Z: +900

BEST NEW ARTIST

Alessia Cara: -115
Khalid: +350
Julia Michaels: +350
SZA: +350
Lil Uzi Vert: +1500

SONG OF THE YEAR

“Despacito” (Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber): +150
“1-800-273-8255”(Logic Featuring Alessia Cara & Khalid): +170
“Issues”(Julia Michaels): +450
“That’s What I Like” (Bruno Mars): +450
“4:44” (Jay-Z): +700

BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE

“Shape Of You” — Ed Sheeran: -150
“Praying” — Kesha: +300
“Million Reasons” — Lady Gaga: +500
“Love So Soft” — Kelly Clarkson: +750
“What About Us” — P!nk: +750

BEST POP DUO/GROUP

“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber: -300
“Thunder” — Imagine Dragons: +500
“Feel It Still” — Portugal. The Man: +500
“Stay” — Zedd & Alessia Cara: +750
“Something Just Like This” — The Chainsmokers & Coldplay: +1500

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM

÷ (Divide) — Ed Sheeran: -150
Joanne — Lady Gaga: +250
Rainbow — Kesha: +600
Lust For Life — Lana Del Rey: +950
Kaleidoscope EP — Coldplay: +950
Evolve — Imagine Dragons: +950

BEST TRADITIONAL POP ALBUM

Nobody But Me (Deluxe Version) — Michael Bublé: +100
Triplicate — Bob Dylan: +200
Tony Bennett Celebrates 90 — Various Artists: +500
In Full Swing — Seth MacFarlane: +700
Wonderland — Sarah McLachlan: +700

BEST METAL PERFORMANCE

“Sultan’s Curse” — Mastodon: -110
“Clockworks” — Meshuggah: +200
“Invisible Enemy” — August Burns Red: +500
“Black Hoodie” — Body Count: +750
“Forever” — Code Orange: +750

BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE

“You Want It Darker” — Leonard Cohen: -150
“The Promise” — Chris Cornell: +300
“Run” — Foo Fighters: +500
“No Good” — Kaleo: +750
“Go To War” — Nothing More: +750

BEST ROCK SONG

“Atlas, Rise!” — Metallica: +150
“Run” –Foo Fighters: +150
“Blood In The Cut” –K.Flay: +500
“Go To War” –Nothing More: +500
“The Stage” –Avenged Sevenfold: +750

BEST ROCK ALBUM

Hardwired…To Self-Destruct — Metallica: -250
Emperor Of Sand — Mastodon: +500
Villains — Queens Of The Stone Age: +700
The Stories We Tell Ourselves — Nothing More: +700
A Deeper Understanding — The War On Drugs: +700

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM

Everything Now — Arcade Fire: +130
American Dream — LCD Soundsystem: +130
Pure Comedy — Father John Misty: +600
Humanz — Gorillaz: +750
Sleep Well Beast — The National: +750

BEST RAP PERFORMANCE

“HUMBLE.” — Kendrick Lamar: -350
“Bodak Yellow” — Cardi B: +600
“4:44” — Jay-Z: +600
“Bounce Back” — Big Sean: +900
“Bad And Boujee” — Migos Featuring Lil Uzi Vert: +900

BEST RAP SONG

“HUMBLE.” (Kendrick Lamar): -175
“Bodak Yellow” (Cardi B): +450
“Chase Me” (Danger Mouse Featuring Run The Jewels & Big Boi): +450
“Sassy” (Rapsody): +700
“The Story Of O.J.” (Jay-Z): +700

BEST RAP ALBUM

DAMN. — Kendrick Lamar: -325
4:44 — Jay-Z: +600
Culture — Migos: +750
Laila’s Wisdom — Rapsody: +750
Flower Boy — Tyler, The Creator: +750

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.